Provident Financial Services, Inc.

PFS

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNYSE

$22.47

Market Cap: $2.93B

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 17:09

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$36.69 – $116.74	$59.43	+164.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$72.74 – $213.74	$112.91	+402.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$37.97 – $93.87	$63.63	+183.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$72.26 – $172.28	$115.04	+412.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$25.98 – $30.54	$21.84	-2.8%
EV/EBITDA	$12.96 – $22.78	$10.72	-52.3%
EV/Revenue	$11.53 – $32.06	$6.32	-71.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$24.55 – $24.55	$24.55	+9.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$16.93 – $30.01	$22.43	-0.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$12.56 – $30.60	$18.38	-18.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$59.43

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+164.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 29.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $59.43 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 164.5% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	522
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	542
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	15
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,080

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	137
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	29
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	52
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	387	404	500	648	841	862

Terminal Value						12,417
WACC / Discount Rate	9.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	7,909

Enterprise Value	10,064
Projection Period	2,155	21.4%
Terminal Value	7,909	78.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307

Equity Value	7,757
(/) Outstanding Shares	131

Fair Price	$59.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.4%	$77	$84	$93	$104	$117
8.4%	$63	$68	$73	$80	$88
9.4%	$52	$55	$59	$64	$70
10.4%	$43	$46	$49	$52	$56
11.4%	$37	$39	$41	$44	$46

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$112.91

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+402.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 7.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $112.91 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 402.5% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	638	771	897	1,003	1,078	1,105
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	662	800	930	1,041	1,119	1,147
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	18	23	29	35	42	43
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,319	1,594	1,856	2,080	2,239	2,295

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	168	202	236	263	283	290
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	35	42	49	55	59	61
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	56	58	55	47	33	33
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	387	404	500	648	841	1,060	1,291	1,516	1,714	1,864	1,910

Terminal Value											27,522
WACC / Discount Rate	9.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	645	718	771	796	791	11,166

Enterprise Value	17,043
Projection Period	5,876	34.5%
Terminal Value	11,166	65.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307

Equity Value	14,736
(/) Outstanding Shares	131

Fair Price	$112.91

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.4%	$153	$164	$177	$193	$214
8.4%	$124	$131	$139	$149	$162
9.4%	$102	$107	$113	$120	$127
10.4%	$86	$89	$93	$98	$103
11.4%	$73	$75	$78	$82	$85

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$63.61

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+183.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 29.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $63.63 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 183.2% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.29x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	522
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	542
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	15
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,080

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	—
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	—
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	387	404	500	648	841	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.3x
Terminal Value						13,272
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	8,454

Enterprise Value	10,608
Projection Period	2,155	20.3%
Terminal Value	8,454	79.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307
Equity Value	8,301
(÷) Outstanding Shares	131M
Fair Price	$64	+183.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.3x	10.3x	12.3x	14.3x	16.3x
7.4%	$48	$59	$71	$82	$94
8.4%	$45	$56	$67	$78	$89
9.4%	$43	$53	$64	$74	$85
10.4%	$40	$50	$60	$70	$80
11.4%	$38	$48	$57	$67	$76

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$115.02

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+411.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 7.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.3x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $115.04 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 412.0% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.29x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	638	771	897	1,003	1,078	1,105
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	662	800	930	1,041	1,119	1,147
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	18	23	29	35	42	43
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,319	1,594	1,856	2,080	2,239	2,295

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	168	202	236	263	283	—
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	35	42	49	55	59	—
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	56	58	55	47	33	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	387	404	500	648	841	1,060	1,291	1,516	1,714	1,864	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.3x
Terminal Value											28,200
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	645	718	771	796	791	11,441

Enterprise Value	17,318
Projection Period	5,876	33.9%
Terminal Value	11,441	66.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307
Equity Value	15,011
(÷) Outstanding Shares	131M
Fair Price	$115	+411.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.3x	10.3x	12.3x	14.3x	16.3x
7.4%	$104	$121	$138	$155	$172
8.4%	$95	$110	$126	$142	$157
9.4%	$87	$101	$115	$129	$144
10.4%	$79	$92	$105	$118	$131
11.4%	$72	$84	$96	$108	$120

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$21.84

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-2.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) has a fair value of $21.84 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	10.1x	24.1x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	9.4x	11.7x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	11.5x	12.5x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	15.7x	20.7x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	13.4x	13.8x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	13.6x	10.4x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	15.8x	17.2x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	12.1x	193.2x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	13.7x	17.5x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	11.6x	13.6x
Industry Median		13.4x	13.8x
(*) Profit after tax		291	122
Equity Value		3,894	1,807
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$30	$14

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.84

-2.8%

Fair Value

$10.72

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-52.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) has a fair value of $10.72 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	12.8x	41.5x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	9.8x	16.5x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	12.3x	20.0x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	13.6x	19.0x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	12.9x	15.8x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	12.9x	27.1x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	13.2x	19.9x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	9.5x	19.8x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	10.5x	17.6x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	9.6x	13.3x
Industry Median		12.3x	19.0x
(*) EBITDA		408	126
= Enterprise Value		5,018	2,394
(-) Net Debt		2,307	2,307
Equity Value		2,711	87
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$21	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.72

-52.3%

Fair Value

$6.32

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-71.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) has a fair value of $6.32 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	3.8x	12.2x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	2.2x	3.8x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	3.4x	5.5x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	4.7x	6.6x
Simmons First National CorporationSFNC	3,094	5.4x	4.2x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	5.7x	6.9x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	2.7x	5.7x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	2.8x	4.2x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	2.8x	5.8x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	2.9x	4.9x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	3.0x	4.1x
Industry Median		2.9x	5.2x
(*) Revenue		1,383	428
= Enterprise Value		4,052	2,212
(-) Net Debt		2,307	2,307
Equity Value		1,745	-95
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$13	$-1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.32

-71.9%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$24.55

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+9.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.4% plus 4.3% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $24.55 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.36. The current PEG ratio is 0.92.

PEG Ratio

0.92Undervalued

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 9.5 ÷ (6.1% + 4.3%) = 0.92

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	6.1%
Dividend Yield	+4.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.4%
Fair P/E	10.4x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.36
Fair Value	$24.55

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.23	—	—
FY2026E	$2.36	+5.9%	4
FY2027E	$2.51	+6.3%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 6.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$167.9M	$2.19	—
FY2022	$175.6M	$2.35	+7.3%
FY2023	$128.4M	$1.71	-27.2%
FY2024	$115.5M	$1.05	-38.6%
FY2025	$291.2M	$2.23	+112.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$22.43

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-0.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 9.4% and normalized earnings of $494.2M, the company has a fair value of $22.43 per share. The EPV range is $16.93 – $30.01 based on WACC sensitivity (7.9% – 10.9%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	494	494	494
(/) WACC	10.9%	9.4%	7.9%
Enterprise Value	4,517	5,235	6,224
(-) Net debt	2,307	2,307	2,307
Equity Value	2,210	2,928	3,917
(/) Outstanding shares	131	131	131
Fair Price	$16.93	$22.43	$30.01

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$18.38

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-18.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.4% and projected dividend growth of 4.5%, the fair value is $18.38 per share. The DDM range is $12.56 – $30.60 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.96

Dividend Yield

4.30%

Payout Ratio

43.2%

Dividend Coverage

2.31x

FCF Payout Ratio29.2%

DPS CAGR (4Y)0.8%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.96	43.2%	+4.8%
2024	$0.92	87.4%	-4.9%
2023	$0.97	56.4%	+0.5%
2022	$0.96	41.0%	+3.2%
2021	$0.93	42.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.01	4.5%	0.9229	$0.93
2027	$1.05	4.5%	0.8517	$0.90
2028	$1.10	4.5%	0.7860	$0.86
2029	$1.15	4.5%	0.7254	$0.83
2030	$1.20	4.5%	0.6695	$0.80
Terminal Value	$1.23 DPS	2.5%		$14.06

PV of Projected Dividends$4.33

PV of Terminal Value$14.06

Fair Value per Share$18.38

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	2.5%	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%
6.4%	$26	$27	$28	$29	$31
7.4%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
8.4%	$17	$18	$18	$19	$20
9.4%	$14	$15	$16	$16	$17
10.4%	$13	$13	$14	$14	$15

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 17:09

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$36.69 – $116.74	$59.43	+164.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$72.74 – $213.74	$112.91	+402.5%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$37.97 – $93.87	$63.63	+183.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$72.26 – $172.28	$115.04	+412.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$25.98 – $30.54	$21.84	-2.8%
EV/EBITDA	$12.96 – $22.78	$10.72	-52.3%
EV/Revenue	$11.53 – $32.06	$6.32	-71.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$24.55 – $24.55	$24.55	+9.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$16.93 – $30.01	$22.43	-0.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$12.56 – $30.60	$18.38	-18.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$59.43

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+164.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	522
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	542
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	15
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,080

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	137
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	29
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	52
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	387	404	500	648	841	862

Terminal Value						12,417
WACC / Discount Rate	9.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	7,909

Enterprise Value	10,064
Projection Period	2,155	21.4%
Terminal Value	7,909	78.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307

Equity Value	7,757
(/) Outstanding Shares	131

Fair Price	$59.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.4%	$77	$84	$93	$104	$117
8.4%	$63	$68	$73	$80	$88
9.4%	$52	$55	$59	$64	$70
10.4%	$43	$46	$49	$52	$56
11.4%	$37	$39	$41	$44	$46

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$112.91

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+402.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	638	771	897	1,003	1,078	1,105
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	662	800	930	1,041	1,119	1,147
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	18	23	29	35	42	43
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,319	1,594	1,856	2,080	2,239	2,295

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	168	202	236	263	283	290
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	35	42	49	55	59	61
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	56	58	55	47	33	33
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	387	404	500	648	841	1,060	1,291	1,516	1,714	1,864	1,910

Terminal Value											27,522
WACC / Discount Rate	9.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	645	718	771	796	791	11,166

Enterprise Value	17,043
Projection Period	5,876	34.5%
Terminal Value	11,166	65.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307

Equity Value	14,736
(/) Outstanding Shares	131

Fair Price	$112.91

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.4%	$153	$164	$177	$193	$214
8.4%	$124	$131	$139	$149	$162
9.4%	$102	$107	$113	$120	$127
10.4%	$86	$89	$93	$98	$103
11.4%	$73	$75	$78	$82	$85

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$63.61

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+183.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 29.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $63.63 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 183.2% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.29x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	522
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	542
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	15
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,080

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	—
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	—
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	387	404	500	648	841	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.3x
Terminal Value						13,272
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	8,454

Enterprise Value	10,608
Projection Period	2,155	20.3%
Terminal Value	8,454	79.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307
Equity Value	8,301
(÷) Outstanding Shares	131M
Fair Price	$64	+183.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.3x	10.3x	12.3x	14.3x	16.3x
7.4%	$48	$59	$71	$82	$94
8.4%	$45	$56	$67	$78	$89
9.4%	$43	$53	$64	$74	$85
10.4%	$40	$50	$60	$70	$80
11.4%	$38	$48	$57	$67	$76

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$115.02

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+411.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -33.1% to 7.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 30, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 9.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.3x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $115.04 per share, suggesting PFS is undervalued by 412.0% at the current price of $22.47.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.44%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.29x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	220	234	303	393	510	638	771	897	1,003	1,078	1,105
(−) Net Interest	228	243	315	408	529	662	800	930	1,041	1,119	1,147
(+) D&A	9	8	9	11	15	18	23	29	35	42	43
EBITDA	457	485	627	812	1,054	1,319	1,594	1,856	2,080	2,239	2,295

(−) Tax	58	61	80	103	134	168	202	236	263	283	—
(−) CapEx	12	13	17	22	28	35	42	49	55	59	—
(−) ΔWC	0	6	30	39	51	56	58	55	47	33	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	387	404	500	648	841	1,060	1,291	1,516	1,714	1,864	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.3x
Terminal Value											28,200
WACC / Discount Rate	9.44%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	370	353	399	472	560	645	718	771	796	791	11,441

Enterprise Value	17,318
Projection Period	5,876	33.9%
Terminal Value	11,441	66.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,307
Equity Value	15,011
(÷) Outstanding Shares	131M
Fair Price	$115	+411.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.3x	10.3x	12.3x	14.3x	16.3x
7.4%	$104	$121	$138	$155	$172
8.4%	$95	$110	$126	$142	$157
9.4%	$87	$101	$115	$129	$144
10.4%	$79	$92	$105	$118	$131
11.4%	$72	$84	$96	$108	$120

Current price: $22.47. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$21.84

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-2.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	10.1x	24.1x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	9.4x	11.7x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	11.5x	12.5x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	15.7x	20.7x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	13.4x	13.8x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	13.6x	10.4x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	15.8x	17.2x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	12.1x	193.2x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	13.7x	17.5x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	11.6x	13.6x
Industry Median		13.4x	13.8x
(*) Profit after tax		291	122
Equity Value		3,894	1,807
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$30	$14

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$21.84

-2.8%

Fair Value

$10.72

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-52.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	12.8x	41.5x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	9.8x	16.5x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	12.3x	20.0x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	13.6x	19.0x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	12.9x	15.8x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	12.9x	27.1x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	13.2x	19.9x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	9.5x	19.8x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	10.5x	17.6x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	9.6x	13.3x
Industry Median		12.3x	19.0x
(*) EBITDA		408	126
= Enterprise Value		5,018	2,394
(-) Net Debt		2,307	2,307
Equity Value		2,711	87
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$21	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.72

-52.3%

Fair Value

$6.32

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-71.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Provident Financial Services, Inc.PFS	2,932	3.8x	12.2x
Western Alliance BancorporationWAL	8,945	2.2x	3.8x
First Financial Bancorp.FFBC	3,211	3.4x	5.5x
Park National CorporationPRK	3,158	4.7x	6.6x
Simmons First National CorporationSFNC	3,094	5.4x	4.2x
CVB Financial Corp.CVBF	2,761	5.7x	6.9x
WaFd, Inc.WAFD	2,706	2.7x	5.7x
TowneBankTOWN	2,661	2.8x	4.2x
Trustmark CorporationTRMK	2,645	2.8x	5.8x
NBT Bancorp Inc.NBTB	2,380	2.9x	4.9x
Banner CorporationBANR	2,231	3.0x	4.1x
Industry Median		2.9x	5.2x
(*) Revenue		1,383	428
= Enterprise Value		4,052	2,212
(-) Net Debt		2,307	2,307
Equity Value		1,745	-95
(/) Outstanding shares		131	131
Fair Price		$13	$-1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.32

-71.9%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$24.55

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

+9.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.92Undervalued

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 9.5 ÷ (6.1% + 4.3%) = 0.92

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	6.1%
Dividend Yield	+4.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.4%
Fair P/E	10.4x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.36
Fair Value	$24.55

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$2.23	—	—
FY2026E	$2.36	+5.9%	4
FY2027E	$2.51	+6.3%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 6.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$167.9M	$2.19	—
FY2022	$175.6M	$2.35	+7.3%
FY2023	$128.4M	$1.71	-27.2%
FY2024	$115.5M	$1.05	-38.6%
FY2025	$291.2M	$2.23	+112.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$22.43

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-0.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	494	494	494
(/) WACC	10.9%	9.4%	7.9%
Enterprise Value	4,517	5,235	6,224
(-) Net debt	2,307	2,307	2,307
Equity Value	2,210	2,928	3,917
(/) Outstanding shares	131	131	131
Fair Price	$16.93	$22.43	$30.01

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$18.38

Market Price

$22.47

Upside / Downside

-18.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.96

Dividend Yield

4.30%

Payout Ratio

43.2%

Dividend Coverage

2.31x

FCF Payout Ratio29.2%

DPS CAGR (4Y)0.8%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.96	43.2%	+4.8%
2024	$0.92	87.4%	-4.9%
2023	$0.97	56.4%	+0.5%
2022	$0.96	41.0%	+3.2%
2021	$0.93	42.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.01	4.5%	0.9229	$0.93
2027	$1.05	4.5%	0.8517	$0.90
2028	$1.10	4.5%	0.7860	$0.86
2029	$1.15	4.5%	0.7254	$0.83
2030	$1.20	4.5%	0.6695	$0.80
Terminal Value	$1.23 DPS	2.5%		$14.06

PV of Projected Dividends$4.33

PV of Terminal Value$14.06

Fair Value per Share$18.38

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	2.5%	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%
6.4%	$26	$27	$28	$29	$31
7.4%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
8.4%	$17	$18	$18	$19	$20
9.4%	$14	$15	$16	$16	$17
10.4%	$13	$13	$14	$14	$15