Firefly Aerospace Inc.

FLY

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$39.68

Market Cap: $6.36B

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 05:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$4.21 – $60.70	$5.03	-87.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$3.08 – $126.41	$3.08	-92.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$11.28 – $20.12	$16.36	-58.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.08

Market Price

$39.68

Upside / Downside

-92.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -154.3% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has an intrinsic value of $3.08 per share (range: $3.08 – $126.41).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-154.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

71.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	435	172.3%	-121.3%	-528	-528	63	(289)	-153	-601	-577
2027	699	60.7%	-88.4%	-619	-619	102	(430)	-87	-860	-761
2028	1,157	65.4%	-55.5%	-642	-642	168	(654)	-150	-977	-797
2029	1,747	51.0%	-22.6%	-395	-395	254	(901)	-194	-847	-637
2030	2,169	24.2%	10.3%	223	176	315	(1,011)	-139	-380	-263
2031	2,819	30.0%	10.3%	290	229	410	(1,174)	-214	-321	-205
2032	3,665	30.0%	10.3%	377	298	533	(1,345)	-278	-235	-138
2033	4,764	30.0%	10.3%	491	388	693	(1,512)	-362	-69	-38
2034	5,973	25.4%	10.3%	615	486	869	(1,599)	-398	153	77
2035	6,820	14.2%	10.3%	703	555	992	(1,488)	-279	338	156

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-3,183

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,321

PV of Terminal Value2,912

Enterprise Value-271

(–) Net Debt-484

Equity Value213

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$3.08

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.5%	$-50	$-6	$38	$82	$126
7.5%	$-50	$-17	$16	$49	$82
8.5%	$-49	$-23	$3	$29	$55
9.5%	$-47	$-26	$-5	$16	$37
10.5%	$-46	$-29	$-11	$6	$24

Current price: $39.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -32.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.03

Market Price

$39.68

Upside / Downside

-87.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-154.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

71.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	435	172.3%	-121.3%	-528	-528	63	(268)	-153	-579	-556
2027	699	60.7%	-88.4%	-619	-619	102	(361)	-87	-791	-699
2028	1,157	65.4%	-55.5%	-642	-642	168	(482)	-150	-805	-657
2029	1,747	51.0%	-22.6%	-395	-395	254	(554)	-194	-501	-377
2030	2,169	24.2%	10.3%	223	176	315	(473)	-139	158	109

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-2,179

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,950

PV of Terminal Value2,043

Enterprise Value-136

(–) Net Debt-484

Equity Value348

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$5.03

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.5%	$-11	$7	$25	$43	$61
7.5%	$-15	$-1	$13	$26	$40
8.5%	$-17	$-6	$5	$16	$27
9.5%	$-18	$-9	$-0	$9	$18
10.5%	$-19	$-11	$-4	$4	$12

Current price: $39.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$16.36

Market Price

$39.68

Upside / Downside

-58.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a fair value of $16.36 based on 9 comparable companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Firefly Aerospace Inc.FLY	2,746	14.1x	5.2x
Planet Labs PBCPL	11,370	37.7x	47.4x
MYR Group Inc.MYRG	6,818	1.9x	1.7x
AAR Corp.AIR	4,683	2.0x	1.7x
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	4,617	21.0x	4.7x
VSE CorporationVSEC	4,559	4.3x	4.4x
Tutor Perini CorporationTPC	4,327	0.7x	0.9x
Plug Power Inc.PLUG	3,590	5.7x	5.0x
Korn FerryKFY	3,517	1.1x	1.1x
GrafTech International Ltd.EAF	242	2.4x	2.1x
Industry Median		2.4x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		160	435
= Enterprise Value		380	915
(-) Net Debt		-484	-484
Equity Value		864	1,400
(/) Outstanding shares		69	69
Fair Price		$12	$20

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$16.36

-58.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$4.21 – $60.70

$5.03

-87.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$3.08 – $126.41

$3.08

-92.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$11.28 – $20.12

$16.36

-58.8%

DCF Analysis

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.08

Market Price

$39.68

Upside / Downside

-92.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-154.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

71.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	435	172.3%	-121.3%	-528	-528	63	(289)	-153	-601	-577
2027	699	60.7%	-88.4%	-619	-619	102	(430)	-87	-860	-761
2028	1,157	65.4%	-55.5%	-642	-642	168	(654)	-150	-977	-797
2029	1,747	51.0%	-22.6%	-395	-395	254	(901)	-194	-847	-637
2030	2,169	24.2%	10.3%	223	176	315	(1,011)	-139	-380	-263
2031	2,819	30.0%	10.3%	290	229	410	(1,174)	-214	-321	-205
2032	3,665	30.0%	10.3%	377	298	533	(1,345)	-278	-235	-138
2033	4,764	30.0%	10.3%	491	388	693	(1,512)	-362	-69	-38
2034	5,973	25.4%	10.3%	615	486	869	(1,599)	-398	153	77
2035	6,820	14.2%	10.3%	703	555	992	(1,488)	-279	338	156

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-3,183

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,321

PV of Terminal Value2,912

Enterprise Value-271

(–) Net Debt-484

Equity Value213

(÷) Shares Outstanding69

Fair Value per Share$3.08

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.5%	$-50	$-6	$38	$82	$126
7.5%	$-50	$-17	$16	$49	$82
8.5%	$-49	$-23	$3	$29	$55
9.5%	$-47	$-26	$-5	$16	$37
10.5%	$-46	$-29	$-11	$6	$24

Current price: $39.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$16.36

Market Price

$39.68

Upside / Downside

-58.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) has a fair value of $16.36 based on 9 comparable companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Firefly Aerospace Inc.FLY	2,746	14.1x	5.2x
Planet Labs PBCPL	11,370	37.7x	47.4x
MYR Group Inc.MYRG	6,818	1.9x	1.7x
AAR Corp.AIR	4,683	2.0x	1.7x
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	4,617	21.0x	4.7x
VSE CorporationVSEC	4,559	4.3x	4.4x
Tutor Perini CorporationTPC	4,327	0.7x	0.9x
Plug Power Inc.PLUG	3,590	5.7x	5.0x
Korn FerryKFY	3,517	1.1x	1.1x
GrafTech International Ltd.EAF	242	2.4x	2.1x
Industry Median		2.4x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		160	435
= Enterprise Value		380	915
(-) Net Debt		-484	-484
Equity Value		864	1,400
(/) Outstanding shares		69	69
Fair Price		$12	$20

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$16.36

-58.8%