Dollar General Corporation

Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNYSE

$101.76

Market Cap: $22.41B

Dollar General Corporation (DG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 13, 2026 22:16

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$105.00 – $2,674.50	$272.81	+128.7%
Growth Exit 10Y	$123.00 – $2,849.52	$299.43	+151.1%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$100.32 – $286.57	$185.49	+55.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$118.63 – $347.66	$215.76	+80.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$117.76 – $215.51	$132.35	+11.0%
EV/EBITDA	$92.63 – $136.52	$113.85	-4.5%
EV/Revenue	$67.01 – $455.78	$204.84	+71.7%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$64.11 – $64.11	$64.11	-46.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$48.25 – $137.39	$80.31	-32.7%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$39.34 – $103.73	$59.15	-50.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$272.81

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+168.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dollar General Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 1, DPO 51, DIO 88). At a 5.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $272.81 per share, suggesting DG is undervalued by 168.1% at the current price of $101.76.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.35%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,786	2,741	2,853	2,975	3,074	3,151
(−) Net Interest	278	274	285	297	307	314
(+) D&A	1,376	1,483	1,487	1,476	1,557	1,596
EBITDA	4,441	4,498	4,626	4,748	4,938	5,061

(−) Tax	617	606	631	658	680	697
(−) CapEx	1,606	1,579	1,644	1,715	1,772	1,816
(−) ΔWC	1,000	-54	133	144	117	120
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,218	2,366	2,216	2,231	2,369	2,428

Terminal Value						85,329
WACC / Discount Rate	5.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,187	2,188	1,946	1,859	1,874	65,767

Enterprise Value	74,821
Projection Period	9,054	12.1%
Terminal Value	65,767	87.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	14,580

Equity Value	60,241
(/) Outstanding Shares	221

Fair Price	$272.81

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.3%	$482	$670	$1080	$2675	$164
4.3%	$288	$355	$458	$637	$1027
5.3%	$195	$228	$273	$336	$434
6.3%	$141	$160	$184	$216	$258
7.3%	$105	$117	$132	$151	$174

Current price: $101.76. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$299.43

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+194.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dollar General Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 1, DPO 51, DIO 88). At a 5.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $299.43 per share, suggesting DG is undervalued by 194.3% at the current price of $101.76.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.35%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,786	2,741	2,853	2,975	3,074	3,206	3,360	3,506	3,643	3,768	3,862
(−) Net Interest	278	274	285	297	307	320	335	350	364	376	385
(+) D&A	1,376	1,483	1,487	1,476	1,557	1,663	1,711	1,783	1,858	1,935	1,983
EBITDA	4,441	4,498	4,626	4,748	4,938	5,189	5,406	5,638	5,864	6,079	6,231

(−) Tax	617	606	631	658	680	709	743	776	806	834	855
(−) CapEx	1,606	1,579	1,644	1,715	1,772	1,847	1,936	2,020	2,099	2,172	2,226
(−) ΔWC	1,000	-54	133	144	117	156	182	173	162	149	152
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,218	2,366	2,216	2,231	2,369	2,476	2,545	2,669	2,797	2,925	2,998

Terminal Value											105,352
WACC / Discount Rate	5.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,187	2,188	1,946	1,859	1,874	1,860	1,814	1,806	1,797	1,783	62,585

Enterprise Value	80,698
Projection Period	18,114	22.4%
Terminal Value	62,585	77.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	14,580

Equity Value	66,118
(/) Outstanding Shares	221

Fair Price	$299.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
3.3%	$554	$750	$1180	$2850	$220
4.3%	$332	$398	$501	$679	$1069
5.3%	$226	$257	$299	$360	$453
6.3%	$164	$181	$203	$232	$270
7.3%	$123	$134	$147	$162	$182

Current price: $101.76. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$185.56

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+82.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dollar General Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 1, DPO 51, DIO 88). At a 5.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $185.49 per share, suggesting DG is undervalued by 82.3% at the current price of $101.76.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.35%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.92x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,786	2,741	2,853	2,975	3,074	3,151
(−) Net Interest	278	274	285	297	307	314
(+) D&A	1,376	1,483	1,487	1,476	1,557	1,596
EBITDA	4,441	4,498	4,626	4,748	4,938	5,061

(−) Tax	617	606	631	658	680	—
(−) CapEx	1,606	1,579	1,644	1,715	1,772	—
(−) ΔWC	1,000	-54	133	144	117	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,218	2,366	2,216	2,231	2,369	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.9x
Terminal Value						60,332
WACC / Discount Rate	5.35%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,187	2,188	1,946	1,859	1,874	46,501

Enterprise Value	55,555
Projection Period	9,054	16.3%
Terminal Value	46,501	83.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	14,580
Equity Value	40,975
(÷) Outstanding Shares	221M
Fair Price	$186	+82.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x
3.3%	$131	$170	$209	$248	$287
4.3%	$123	$160	$197	$234	$271
5.3%	$115	$150	$185	$221	$256
6.3%	$107	$141	$175	$208	$242
7.3%	$100	$132	$165	$197	$229

Current price: $101.76. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$215.83

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+112.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dollar General Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to 3.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 1, DPO 51, DIO 88). At a 5.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (71% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.9x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $215.76 per share, suggesting DG is undervalued by 112.0% at the current price of $101.76.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

5.35%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.92x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,786	2,741	2,853	2,975	3,074	3,206	3,360	3,506	3,643	3,768	3,862
(−) Net Interest	278	274	285	297	307	320	335	350	364	376	385
(+) D&A	1,376	1,483	1,487	1,476	1,557	1,663	1,711	1,783	1,858	1,935	1,983
EBITDA	4,441	4,498	4,626	4,748	4,938	5,189	5,406	5,638	5,864	6,079	6,231

(−) Tax	617	606	631	658	680	709	743	776	806	834	—
(−) CapEx	1,606	1,579	1,644	1,715	1,772	1,847	1,936	2,020	2,099	2,172	—
(−) ΔWC	1,000	-54	133	144	117	156	182	173	162	149	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,218	2,366	2,216	2,231	2,369	2,476	2,545	2,669	2,797	2,925	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.9x
Terminal Value											74,277
WACC / Discount Rate	5.35%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,187	2,188	1,946	1,859	1,874	1,860	1,814	1,806	1,797	1,783	44,124

Enterprise Value	62,238
Projection Period	18,114	29.1%
Terminal Value	44,124	70.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	14,580
Equity Value	47,658
(÷) Outstanding Shares	221M
Fair Price	$216	+112.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.9x	9.9x	11.9x	13.9x	15.9x
3.3%	$185	$226	$266	$307	$348
4.3%	$166	$203	$240	$277	$314
5.3%	$149	$182	$216	$249	$283
6.3%	$133	$163	$194	$224	$255
7.3%	$119	$146	$174	$202	$230

Current price: $101.76. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$132.18

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+29.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Dollar General Corporation (DG) has a fair value of $132.18 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

P/E Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Dollar General CorporationDG	22,470	14.9x	14.0x
Constellation Brands, Inc.STZ	28,656	17.1x	14.1x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	23,898	25.2x	13.2x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	23,634	45.5x	—
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,960	47.4x	22.4x
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.CHD	22,510	31.5x	25.3x
Dollar Tree, Inc.DLTR	20,309	17.2x	15.2x
General Mills, Inc.GIS	18,444	8.4x	10.1x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	14,547	18.5x	17.5x
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,191	21.3x	20.6x
Industry Median		21.3x	16.3x
(*) Profit after tax		1,512	1,605
Equity Value		32,169	26,205
(/) Outstanding shares		221	221
Fair Price		$146	$119

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$132.18

+29.9%

Fair Value

$113.84

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+11.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Dollar General Corporation (DG) has a fair value of $113.84 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Dollar General CorporationDG	22,470	11.4x	11.0x
Constellation Brands, Inc.STZ	28,656	11.9x	12.0x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	23,898	16.1x	21.4x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	23,634	6.1x	—
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,960	11.9x	12.1x
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.CHD	22,510	18.7x	18.9x
Dollar Tree, Inc.DLTR	20,309	10.8x	10.1x
General Mills, Inc.GIS	18,444	8.5x	9.0x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	14,547	13.8x	12.0x
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,191	13.0x	12.3x
Industry Median		11.9x	12.0x
(*) EBITDA		3,250	3,379
= Enterprise Value		38,727	40,706
(-) Net Debt		14,580	14,580
Equity Value		24,147	26,126
(/) Outstanding shares		221	221
Fair Price		$109	$118

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$113.84

+11.9%

Fair Value

$204.81

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

+101.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Dollar General Corporation (DG) has a fair value of $204.81 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Dollar General CorporationDG	22,470	0.9x	0.8x
Constellation Brands, Inc.STZ	28,656	4.3x	4.3x
Bunge Global S.A.BG	23,898	0.6x	0.7x
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX	23,634	0.7x	—
Tyson Foods, Inc.TSN	22,960	0.6x	0.6x
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.CHD	22,510	3.9x	4.0x
Dollar Tree, Inc.DLTR	20,309	1.2x	1.2x
General Mills, Inc.GIS	18,444	1.7x	1.8x
McCormick & Company, IncorporatedMKC	14,547	2.7x	2.3x
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,191	0.7x	0.6x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		42,724	44,419
= Enterprise Value		53,296	66,315
(-) Net Debt		14,580	14,580
Equity Value		38,716	51,735
(/) Outstanding shares		221	221
Fair Price		$175	$234

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$204.81

+101.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$64.11

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

-37.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.8% plus 2.0% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $64.11 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $7.29. The current PEG ratio is 1.86.

PEG Ratio

1.86Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 16.4 ÷ (6.8% + 2.0%) = 1.86

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	6.8%
Dividend Yield	+2.0%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	8.8%
Fair P/E	8.8x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$7.29
Fair Value	$64.11

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$6.85	—	—
FY2027E	$7.29	+6.4%	25
FY2028E	$7.99	+9.6%	26
FY2029E	$8.80	+10.2%	11
FY2030E	$9.44	+7.3%	5
FY2031E	$10.18	+7.8%	4

6Y Forward EPS CAGR: 6.8%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$2.4B	$10.17	—
FY2022	$2.4B	$10.68	+5.0%
FY2023	$1.7B	$7.55	-29.3%
FY2024	$1.1B	$5.11	-32.3%
FY2025	$1.5B	$6.85	+34.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -9.4%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$80.31

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

-21.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 5.3% and normalized earnings of $1.7B, the company has a fair value of $80.31 per share. The EPV range is $48.25 – $137.39 based on WACC sensitivity (3.8% – 6.8%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,727	1,727	1,727
(/) WACC	6.8%	5.3%	3.8%
Enterprise Value	25,234	32,315	44,919
(-) Net debt	14,580	14,580	14,580
Equity Value	10,654	17,735	30,338
(/) Outstanding shares	221	221	221
Fair Price	$48.25	$80.31	$137.39

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$59.15

Market Price

$101.76

Upside / Downside

-41.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.9% and projected dividend growth of 8.9%, the fair value is $59.15 per share. The DDM range is $39.34 – $103.73 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$2.35

Dividend Yield

1.98%

Payout Ratio

34.4%

Dividend Coverage

2.91x

FCF Payout Ratio21.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)9.1%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$2.35	34.4%	-0.3%
2024	$2.36	46.1%	+0.2%
2023	$2.36	31.2%	+7.9%
2022	$2.18	20.4%	+31.2%
2021	$1.66	16.3%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$2.56	8.9%	0.9270	$2.37
2027	$2.79	8.9%	0.8594	$2.40
2028	$3.04	8.9%	0.7967	$2.42
2029	$3.31	8.9%	0.7386	$2.44
2030	$3.60	8.9%	0.6847	$2.46
Terminal Value	$3.69 DPS	2.5%		$47.05

PV of Projected Dividends$12.10

PV of Terminal Value$47.05

Fair Value per Share$59.15

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	6.9%	7.9%	8.9%	9.9%	10.9%
5.9%	$87	$91	$95	$99	$104
6.9%	$67	$70	$73	$76	$80
7.9%	$54	$57	$59	$62	$64
8.9%	$46	$48	$50	$52	$54
9.9%	$39	$41	$43	$45	$46

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.