BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNYSE

$91.11

Market Cap: $11.81B

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:25

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$62.13 – $3,527.68	$132.97	+39.1%
Growth Exit 10Y	$72.87 – $3,820.34	$150.13	+57.1%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$78.65 – $183.31	$126.56	+32.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$84.83 – $212.26	$138.96	+45.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$63.86 – $110.04	$78.98	-17.4%
EV/EBITDA	$75.90 – $122.15	$94.94	-0.7%
EV/Revenue	$171.39 – $372.39	$316.29	+230.9%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$36.18 – $36.18	$36.18	-62.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$17.35 – $41.18	$26.35	-72.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$132.97

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+45.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.5% to 9.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 4, DPO 28, DIO 33). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $132.97 per share, suggesting BJ is undervalued by 45.9% at the current price of $91.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.00%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	834	828	882	939	1,025	1,056
(−) Net Interest	62	62	66	70	76	79
(+) D&A	486	537	573	598	606	624
EBITDA	1,382	1,427	1,521	1,607	1,708	1,759

(−) Tax	215	214	228	242	265	272
(−) CapEx	558	555	591	629	686	707
(−) ΔWC	5	-3	33	35	52	54
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	603	662	670	702	705	726

Terminal Value						23,218
WACC / Discount Rate	6.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.0%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	585	605	578	570	539	17,246

Enterprise Value	20,124
Projection Period	2,878	14.3%
Terminal Value	17,246	85.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,562

Equity Value	17,561
(/) Outstanding Shares	132

Fair Price	$132.97

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
4.1%	$215	$279	$402	$719	$3528
5.1%	$140	$166	$204	$266	$383
6.1%	$101	$115	$133	$158	$194
7.1%	$78	$86	$96	$109	$126
8.1%	$62	$68	$74	$82	$92

Current price: $91.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$150.13

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+64.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.5% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 4, DPO 28, DIO 33). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $150.13 per share, suggesting BJ is undervalued by 64.8% at the current price of $91.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.00%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	834	828	882	939	1,025	1,090	1,148	1,202	1,253	1,297	1,336
(−) Net Interest	62	62	66	70	76	81	86	90	93	97	100
(+) D&A	486	537	573	598	606	604	638	681	724	765	788
EBITDA	1,382	1,427	1,521	1,607	1,708	1,774	1,871	1,973	2,069	2,160	2,224

(−) Tax	215	214	228	242	265	281	296	310	323	335	345
(−) CapEx	558	555	591	629	686	729	768	805	838	869	895
(−) ΔWC	5	-3	33	35	52	39	35	33	30	27	28
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	603	662	670	702	705	725	771	824	877	929	957

Terminal Value											30,597
WACC / Discount Rate	6.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.0%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	585	605	578	570	539	523	524	528	529	528	16,881

Enterprise Value	22,390
Projection Period	5,509	24.6%
Terminal Value	16,881	75.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,562

Equity Value	19,828
(/) Outstanding Shares	132

Fair Price	$150.13

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
4.1%	$254	$324	$455	$797	$3820
5.1%	$165	$192	$231	$294	$414
6.1%	$119	$133	$150	$174	$210
7.1%	$91	$99	$109	$121	$137
8.1%	$73	$78	$83	$90	$99

Current price: $91.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$126.52

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+38.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.5% to 9.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 4, DPO 28, DIO 33). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $126.56 per share, suggesting BJ is undervalued by 38.9% at the current price of $91.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.61x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	834	828	882	939	1,025	1,051
(−) Net Interest	62	62	66	70	76	78
(+) D&A	486	537	573	598	606	621
EBITDA	1,382	1,427	1,521	1,607	1,708	1,750

(−) Tax	215	214	228	242	265	—
(−) CapEx	558	555	591	629	686	—
(−) ΔWC	5	-3	33	35	52	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	603	662	670	702	705	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.6x
Terminal Value						22,072
WACC / Discount Rate	6.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	585	605	578	570	539	16,394

Enterprise Value	19,272
Projection Period	2,878	14.9%
Terminal Value	16,394	85.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,562
Equity Value	16,710
(÷) Outstanding Shares	132M
Fair Price	$127	+38.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.6x	10.6x	12.6x	14.6x	16.6x
4.1%	$97	$118	$140	$162	$183
5.1%	$92	$112	$133	$154	$174
6.1%	$87	$107	$127	$146	$166
7.1%	$83	$102	$120	$139	$158
8.1%	$79	$97	$115	$132	$150

Current price: $91.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$138.93

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+52.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.5% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 4, DPO 28, DIO 33). At a 6.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $138.96 per share, suggesting BJ is undervalued by 52.5% at the current price of $91.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.61x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	834	828	882	939	1,025	1,090	1,148	1,202	1,253	1,297	1,330
(−) Net Interest	62	62	66	70	76	81	86	90	93	97	99
(+) D&A	486	537	573	598	606	604	638	681	724	765	785
EBITDA	1,382	1,427	1,521	1,607	1,708	1,774	1,871	1,973	2,069	2,160	2,214

(−) Tax	215	214	228	242	265	281	296	310	323	335	—
(−) CapEx	558	555	591	629	686	729	768	805	838	869	—
(−) ΔWC	5	-3	33	35	52	39	35	33	30	27	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	603	662	670	702	705	725	771	824	877	929	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.6x
Terminal Value											27,915
WACC / Discount Rate	6.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	585	605	578	570	539	523	524	528	529	528	15,401

Enterprise Value	20,910
Projection Period	5,509	26.3%
Terminal Value	15,401	73.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,562
Equity Value	18,348
(÷) Outstanding Shares	132M
Fair Price	$139	+52.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.6x	10.6x	12.6x	14.6x	16.6x
4.1%	$123	$145	$168	$190	$212
5.1%	$112	$132	$153	$173	$193
6.1%	$102	$120	$139	$157	$176
7.1%	$93	$110	$127	$144	$160
8.1%	$85	$100	$116	$131	$146

Current price: $91.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.98

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

-13.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) has a fair value of $78.98 based on 8 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

P/E Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,033	20.8x	20.1x
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.COKE	16,571	29.1x	59.9x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	16.1x	17.7x
Brown-Forman CorporationBF-B	12,553	14.5x	15.2x
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL	12,029	25.1x	13.8x
Albertsons Companies, Inc.ACI	9,882	11.0x	8.4x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,978	24.6x	24.6x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,539	14.6x	13.9x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,962	25.0x	29.5x
Industry Median		20.3x	16.5x
(*) Profit after tax		578	597
Equity Value		11,755	9,105
(/) Outstanding shares		132	132
Fair Price		$89	$69

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.98

-13.3%

Fair Value

$94.94

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+4.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) has a fair value of $94.94 based on 8 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,033	12.9x	12.2x
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.COKE	16,571	16.5x	21.8x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	11.1x	12.1x
Brown-Forman CorporationBF-B	12,553	11.5x	11.7x
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL	12,029	14.1x	14.4x
Albertsons Companies, Inc.ACI	9,882	5.8x	5.6x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,978	13.7x	15.6x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,539	9.3x	8.6x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,962	16.9x	19.6x
Industry Median		12.6x	13.2x
(*) EBITDA		1,135	1,201
= Enterprise Value		14,311	15,889
(-) Net Debt		2,562	2,562
Equity Value		11,749	13,327
(/) Outstanding shares		132	132
Fair Price		$89	$101

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$94.94

+4.2%

Fair Value

$316.29

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

+247.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) has a fair value of $316.29 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.BJ	12,033	0.7x	0.6x
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.COKE	16,571	2.7x	3.5x
The Clorox CompanyCLX	12,795	2.2x	2.4x
Brown-Forman CorporationBF-B	12,553	3.7x	3.8x
Hormel Foods CorporationHRL	12,029	1.2x	1.2x
The J. M. Smucker CompanySJM	10,159	2.0x	2.0x
Albertsons Companies, Inc.ACI	9,882	0.3x	0.3x
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.EDU	8,978	1.7x	1.9x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,539	1.0x	1.0x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,962	2.4x	2.8x
Industry Median		2.0x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		21,457	22,708
= Enterprise Value		43,896	44,772
(-) Net Debt		2,562	2,562
Equity Value		41,333	42,210
(/) Outstanding shares		132	132
Fair Price		$313	$320

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$316.29

+247.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$36.18

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

-60.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $36.18 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $4.52. The current PEG ratio is 4.03.

PEG Ratio

4.03Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 21.1 ÷ 5.2% = 4.03

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	5.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2027)	$4.52
Fair Value	$36.18

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$4.38	—	—
FY2027E	$4.52	+3.3%	16
FY2028E	$4.89	+8.2%	14
FY2029E	$5.30	+8.2%	9
FY2030E	$5.49	+3.6%	4
FY2031E	$5.95	+8.4%	3

6Y Forward EPS CAGR: 5.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$426.7M	$3.09	—
FY2022	$513.2M	$3.76	+21.7%
FY2023	$523.7M	$3.88	+3.2%
FY2024	$534.4M	$4.00	+3.1%
FY2025	$578.4M	$4.38	+9.5%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 9.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$26.35

Market Price

$91.11

Upside / Downside

-71.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.1% and normalized earnings of $370.2M, the company has a fair value of $26.35 per share. The EPV range is $17.35 – $41.18 based on WACC sensitivity (4.6% – 7.6%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	370	370	370
(/) WACC	7.6%	6.1%	4.6%
Enterprise Value	4,854	6,042	8,000
(-) Net debt	2,562	2,562	2,562
Equity Value	2,291	3,479	5,438
(/) Outstanding shares	132	132	132
Fair Price	$17.35	$26.35	$41.18

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.