Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

OLLI

Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNASDAQ

$82.21

Market Cap: $5.01B

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 04:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$44.16 – $215.24	$74.39	-9.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$63.92 – $306.99	$107.05	+30.2%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$42.38 – $115.27	$75.70	-7.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$55.35 – $148.32	$94.68	+15.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$37.41 – $65.45	$43.73	-46.8%
EV/EBITDA	$39.06 – $91.35	$44.63	-45.7%
EV/Revenue	$37.84 – $58.81	$42.92	-47.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$39.31 – $39.31	$39.31	-52.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$25.98 – $43.50	$32.90	-60.0%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$74.39

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-9.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 10.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $74.39 per share, suggesting OLLI is fairly valued by 9.5% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	513
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	125
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	638

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	123
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	168
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	79
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	203	191	225	239	260	267

Terminal Value						5,765
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	4,085

Enterprise Value	5,021
Projection Period	936	18.6%
Terminal Value	4,085	81.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	426

Equity Value	4,595
(/) Outstanding Shares	62

Fair Price	$74.39

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$102	$116	$137	$167	$215
6.1%	$78	$86	$97	$111	$131
7.1%	$63	$68	$74	$82	$93
8.1%	$52	$56	$60	$65	$71
9.1%	$44	$47	$50	$53	$57

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$107.05

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

+30.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (71% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $107.05 per share, suggesting OLLI is undervalued by 30.2% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	549	594	635	671	700	717
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	134	149	164	179	193	198
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	683	743	799	850	893	915

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	132	143	153	161	168	172
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	180	195	208	220	229	235
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	76	71	65	56	46	47
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	203	191	225	239	260	296	334	373	412	450	461

Terminal Value											9,958
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	202	214	223	230	234	5,000

Enterprise Value	7,039
Projection Period	2,038	29.0%
Terminal Value	5,000	71.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	426

Equity Value	6,613
(/) Outstanding Shares	62

Fair Price	$107.05

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$154	$174	$202	$242	$307
6.1%	$117	$127	$141	$159	$184
7.1%	$93	$99	$107	$117	$129
8.1%	$76	$80	$85	$91	$98
9.1%	$64	$67	$70	$74	$78

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$75.73

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-7.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 10.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $75.70 per share, suggesting OLLI is fairly valued by 7.9% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.22x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	513
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	125
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	638

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	—
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	—
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	203	191	225	239	260	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.2x
Terminal Value						5,882
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	4,168

Enterprise Value	5,104
Projection Period	936	18.3%
Terminal Value	4,168	81.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	426
Equity Value	4,678
(÷) Outstanding Shares	62M
Fair Price	$76	-7.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.2x	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x
5.1%	$51	$67	$83	$99	$115
6.1%	$49	$64	$79	$95	$110
7.1%	$46	$61	$76	$90	$105
8.1%	$44	$58	$72	$86	$100
9.1%	$42	$56	$69	$82	$96

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$94.71

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

+15.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (68% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $94.68 per share, suggesting OLLI is undervalued by 15.2% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.22x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	549	594	635	671	700	717
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	134	149	164	179	193	198
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	683	743	799	850	893	915

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	132	143	153	161	168	—
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	180	195	208	220	229	—
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	76	71	65	56	46	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	203	191	225	239	260	296	334	373	412	450	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.2x
Terminal Value											8,440
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	202	214	223	230	234	4,238

Enterprise Value	6,276
Projection Period	2,038	32.5%
Terminal Value	4,238	67.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	426
Equity Value	5,850
(÷) Outstanding Shares	62M
Fair Price	$95	+15.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.2x	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x
5.1%	$76	$94	$112	$130	$148
6.1%	$70	$87	$103	$119	$136
7.1%	$65	$80	$95	$110	$124
8.1%	$60	$73	$87	$101	$114
9.1%	$55	$68	$80	$92	$105

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$43.73

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-46.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has a fair value of $43.73 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

P/E Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	21.1x	25.0x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	10.4x	14.0x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	15.3x	14.5x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	4.1x	18.1x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	9.6x	10.2x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	5.9x	8.3x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	10.4x	9.6x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	16.8x	15.2x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	32.5x	32.1x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	31.7x	19.6x
Industry Median		10.4x	14.5x
(*) Profit after tax		241	203
Equity Value		2,500	2,903
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$40	$47

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$43.73

-46.8%

Fair Value

$44.63

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-45.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has a fair value of $44.63 based on 9 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	14.6x	16.9x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	6.8x	7.4x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	9.3x	8.7x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	20.1x	20.3x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	6.1x	5.9x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	7.5x	7.7x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	8.4x	8.9x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	9.2x	9.1x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	16.0x	16.0x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	18.2x	14.9x
Industry Median		9.2x	8.9x
(*) EBITDA		378	325
= Enterprise Value		3,485	2,881
(-) Net Debt		426	426
Equity Value		3,059	2,455
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$50	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.63

-45.7%

Fair Value

$42.92

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-47.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) has a fair value of $42.92 based on 10 comparable companies in the Discount Stores industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	2.1x	2.4x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	0.7x	0.8x
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyTAP	8,089	1.2x	1.2x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	1.1x	1.0x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	1.8x	1.9x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	1.0x	1.0x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	1.3x	1.3x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	1.3x	1.4x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	1.5x	1.5x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	0.9x	0.9x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	2.9x	2.3x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		2,649	2,279
= Enterprise Value		3,287	2,868
(-) Net Debt		426	426
Equity Value		2,861	2,442
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$46	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$42.92

-47.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$39.31

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-52.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.2%, the company has a fair value of $39.31 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.87. The current PEG ratio is 2.09.

PEG Ratio

2.09Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 21.2 ÷ 10.2% = 2.09

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.2%
Fair P/E	10.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.87
Fair Value	$39.31

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.89	—	—
FY2026E	$3.87	-0.5%	10
FY2027E	$4.48	+15.7%	11
FY2028E	$5.13	+14.5%	11
FY2029E	$5.73	+11.7%	3

4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$157.5M	$2.43	—
FY2022	$102.8M	$1.64	-32.5%
FY2023	$181.4M	$2.92	+78.0%
FY2024	$199.8M	$3.23	+10.6%
FY2025	$240.6M	$3.89	+20.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 12.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$32.90

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-60.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.1% and normalized earnings of $175.3M, the company has a fair value of $32.90 per share. The EPV range is $25.98 – $43.50 based on WACC sensitivity (5.6% – 8.6%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	175	175	175
(/) WACC	8.6%	7.1%	5.6%
Enterprise Value	2,031	2,458	3,113
(-) Net debt	426	426	426
Equity Value	1,605	2,032	2,687
(/) Outstanding shares	62	62	62
Fair Price	$25.98	$32.90	$43.50

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 04:24

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$44.16 – $215.24	$74.39	-9.5%
Growth Exit 10Y	$63.92 – $306.99	$107.05	+30.2%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$42.38 – $115.27	$75.70	-7.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$55.35 – $148.32	$94.68	+15.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$37.41 – $65.45	$43.73	-46.8%
EV/EBITDA	$39.06 – $91.35	$44.63	-45.7%
EV/Revenue	$37.84 – $58.81	$42.92	-47.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$39.31 – $39.31	$39.31	-52.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$25.98 – $43.50	$32.90	-60.0%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$74.39

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-9.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	513
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	125
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	638

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	123
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	168
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	79
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	203	191	225	239	260	267

Terminal Value						5,765
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	4,085

Enterprise Value	5,021
Projection Period	936	18.6%
Terminal Value	4,085	81.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	426

Equity Value	4,595
(/) Outstanding Shares	62

Fair Price	$74.39

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$102	$116	$137	$167	$215
6.1%	$78	$86	$97	$111	$131
7.1%	$63	$68	$74	$82	$93
8.1%	$52	$56	$60	$65	$71
9.1%	$44	$47	$50	$53	$57

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$107.05

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

+30.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	549	594	635	671	700	717
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	134	149	164	179	193	198
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	683	743	799	850	893	915

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	132	143	153	161	168	172
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	180	195	208	220	229	235
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	76	71	65	56	46	47
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	203	191	225	239	260	296	334	373	412	450	461

Terminal Value											9,958
WACC / Discount Rate	7.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	202	214	223	230	234	5,000

Enterprise Value	7,039
Projection Period	2,038	29.0%
Terminal Value	5,000	71.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	426

Equity Value	6,613
(/) Outstanding Shares	62

Fair Price	$107.05

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	$154	$174	$202	$242	$307
6.1%	$117	$127	$141	$159	$184
7.1%	$93	$99	$107	$117	$129
8.1%	$76	$80	$85	$91	$98
9.1%	$64	$67	$70	$74	$78

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$75.73

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-7.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 10.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $75.70 per share, suggesting OLLI is fairly valued by 7.9% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.22x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	513
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	125
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	638

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	—
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	—
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	203	191	225	239	260	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.2x
Terminal Value						5,882
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	4,168

Enterprise Value	5,104
Projection Period	936	18.3%
Terminal Value	4,168	81.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	426
Equity Value	4,678
(÷) Outstanding Shares	62M
Fair Price	$76	-7.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.2x	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x
5.1%	$51	$67	$83	$99	$115
6.1%	$49	$64	$79	$95	$110
7.1%	$46	$61	$76	$90	$105
8.1%	$44	$58	$72	$86	$100
9.1%	$42	$56	$69	$82	$96

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$94.71

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

+15.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.1% to 4.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 0, DPO 35, DIO 149). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (68% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $94.68 per share, suggesting OLLI is undervalued by 15.2% at the current price of $82.21.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.13%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.22x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	322	365	406	452	501	549	594	635	671	700	717
(−) Net Interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	87	101	114	116	122	134	149	164	179	193	198
EBITDA	409	466	520	568	622	683	743	799	850	893	915

(−) Tax	77	88	98	109	120	132	143	153	161	168	—
(−) CapEx	106	120	133	148	164	180	195	208	220	229	—
(−) ΔWC	23	67	65	72	77	76	71	65	56	46	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	203	191	225	239	260	296	334	373	412	450	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.2x
Terminal Value											8,440
WACC / Discount Rate	7.13%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	196	172	189	188	191	202	214	223	230	234	4,238

Enterprise Value	6,276
Projection Period	2,038	32.5%
Terminal Value	4,238	67.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	426
Equity Value	5,850
(÷) Outstanding Shares	62M
Fair Price	$95	+15.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.2x	7.2x	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x
5.1%	$76	$94	$112	$130	$148
6.1%	$70	$87	$103	$119	$136
7.1%	$65	$80	$95	$110	$124
8.1%	$60	$73	$87	$101	$114
9.1%	$55	$68	$80	$92	$105

Current price: $82.21. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$43.73

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-46.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	21.1x	25.0x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	10.4x	14.0x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	15.3x	14.5x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	4.1x	18.1x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	9.6x	10.2x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	5.9x	8.3x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	10.4x	9.6x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	16.8x	15.2x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	32.5x	32.1x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	31.7x	19.6x
Industry Median		10.4x	14.5x
(*) Profit after tax		241	203
Equity Value		2,500	2,903
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$40	$47

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$43.73

-46.8%

Fair Value

$44.63

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-45.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	14.6x	16.9x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	6.8x	7.4x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	9.3x	8.7x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	20.1x	20.3x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	6.1x	5.9x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	7.5x	7.7x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	8.4x	8.9x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	9.2x	9.1x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	16.0x	16.0x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	18.2x	14.9x
Industry Median		9.2x	8.9x
(*) EBITDA		378	325
= Enterprise Value		3,485	2,881
(-) Net Debt		426	426
Equity Value		3,059	2,455
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$50	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$44.63

-45.7%

Fair Value

$42.92

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-47.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Discount Stores

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.OLLI	5,078	2.1x	2.4x
Smithfield Foods, Inc.SFD	10,252	0.7x	0.8x
Molson Coors Beverage CompanyTAP	8,089	1.2x	1.2x
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.SFM	7,619	1.1x	1.0x
TAL Education GroupTAL	6,937	1.8x	1.9x
Ingredion IncorporatedINGR	6,771	1.0x	1.0x
Conagra Brands, Inc.CAG	6,758	1.3x	1.3x
Campbell Soup CompanyCPB	6,213	1.3x	1.4x
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.LW	5,800	1.5x	1.5x
PriceSmart, Inc.PSMT	4,836	0.9x	0.9x
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.ELF	3,594	2.9x	2.3x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		2,649	2,279
= Enterprise Value		3,287	2,868
(-) Net Debt		426	426
Equity Value		2,861	2,442
(/) Outstanding shares		62	62
Fair Price		$46	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$42.92

-47.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$39.31

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-52.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.2%, the company has a fair value of $39.31 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.87. The current PEG ratio is 2.09.

PEG Ratio

2.09Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 21.2 ÷ 10.2% = 2.09

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.2%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	10.2%
Fair P/E	10.2x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.87
Fair Value	$39.31

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.89	—	—
FY2026E	$3.87	-0.5%	10
FY2027E	$4.48	+15.7%	11
FY2028E	$5.13	+14.5%	11
FY2029E	$5.73	+11.7%	3

4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$157.5M	$2.43	—
FY2022	$102.8M	$1.64	-32.5%
FY2023	$181.4M	$2.92	+78.0%
FY2024	$199.8M	$3.23	+10.6%
FY2025	$240.6M	$3.89	+20.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 12.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$32.90

Market Price

$82.21

Upside / Downside

-60.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	175	175	175
(/) WACC	8.6%	7.1%	5.6%
Enterprise Value	2,031	2,458	3,113
(-) Net debt	426	426	426
Equity Value	1,605	2,032	2,687
(/) Outstanding shares	62	62	62
Fair Price	$25.98	$32.90	$43.50