Ambiq Micro, Inc.

AMBQ

TechnologySemiconductorsNYSE

$66.37

Market Cap: $1.42B

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 16, 2026 22:12

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.34 – $33.34	$2.15	-93.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.30 – $50.74	$11.06	-65.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$35.76 – $140.32	$59.28	+83.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$11.06

Market Price

$66.37

Upside / Downside

-83.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -56.7% to a target of 10.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) has an intrinsic value of $11.06 per share (range: $0.30 – $50.74).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-56.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.0%

D&A/Revenue

7.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	101	39.0%	-43.4%	-44	-44	7	(6)	20	-62	-60
2027	129	28.0%	-30.0%	-39	-39	9	(8)	10	-47	-42
2028	174	34.5%	-16.7%	-29	-29	13	(12)	16	-44	-35
2029	209	20.5%	-3.3%	-7	-7	15	(16)	13	-20	-15
2030	228	9.2%	10.1%	23	18	17	(18)	7	10	7
2031	247	8.2%	10.1%	25	20	18	(21)	7	10	6
2032	265	7.1%	10.1%	27	21	19	(24)	6	10	6
2033	281	6.1%	10.1%	28	22	21	(28)	6	10	5
2034	295	5.1%	10.1%	30	23	22	(31)	5	9	5
2035	307	4.0%	10.1%	31	24	22	(34)	4	9	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-119

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)154

PV of Terminal Value68

Enterprise Value-51

(–) Net Debt-140

Equity Value88

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$11.06

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$-6	$1	$18	$34	$51
8.0%	$-5	$1	$14	$27	$40
9.0%	$-5	$0	$11	$22	$32
10.0%	$-4	$0	$9	$18	$27
11.0%	$-4	$0	$8	$16	$23

Current price: $66.37. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.15

Market Price

$66.37

Upside / Downside

-96.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-56.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.0%

D&A/Revenue

7.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	101	39.0%	-43.4%	-44	-44	7	(6)	20	-63	-60
2027	129	28.0%	-30.0%	-39	-39	9	(10)	10	-49	-43
2028	174	34.5%	-16.7%	-29	-29	13	(15)	16	-47	-38
2029	209	20.5%	-3.3%	-7	-7	15	(20)	13	-25	-18
2030	228	9.2%	10.1%	23	18	17	(25)	7	3	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-157

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)51

PV of Terminal Value35

Enterprise Value-122

(–) Net Debt-140

Equity Value17

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$2.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$-6	$-4	$4	$19	$33
8.0%	$-6	$-4	$3	$14	$26
9.0%	$-5	$-4	$2	$12	$21
10.0%	$-5	$-3	$2	$10	$18
11.0%	$-4	$-3	$1	$8	$15

Current price: $66.37. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.28

Market Price

$66.37

Upside / Downside

-10.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) has a fair value of $59.28 based on 8 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ambiq Micro, Inc.AMBQ	529	5.4x	5.5x
AXT, Inc.AXTI	3,594	40.0x	44.7x
Wolfspeed, Inc.WOLF	1,198	9.6x	9.7x
Arteris, Inc.AIP	978	13.5x	16.6x
Weave Communications, Inc.WEAV	420	1.9x	2.2x
Cerence Inc.CRNC	383	2.1x	1.6x
Backblaze, Inc.BLZE	240	2.0x	2.5x
Blaize Holdings, Inc.BZAI	212	4.4x	70.3x
Domo, Inc.DOMO	143	0.8x	0.8x
Industry Median		3.2x	6.1x
(*) Revenue		73	71
= Enterprise Value		235	432
(-) Net Debt		-140	-140
Equity Value		374	572
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$47	$72

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.28

-10.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.34 – $33.34

$2.15

-93.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.30 – $50.74

$11.06

-65.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$35.76 – $140.32

$59.28

+83.7%

DCF Analysis

Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$11.06

Market Price

$66.37

Upside / Downside

-83.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-56.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

11.0%

D&A/Revenue

7.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	101	39.0%	-43.4%	-44	-44	7	(6)	20	-62	-60
2027	129	28.0%	-30.0%	-39	-39	9	(8)	10	-47	-42
2028	174	34.5%	-16.7%	-29	-29	13	(12)	16	-44	-35
2029	209	20.5%	-3.3%	-7	-7	15	(16)	13	-20	-15
2030	228	9.2%	10.1%	23	18	17	(18)	7	10	7
2031	247	8.2%	10.1%	25	20	18	(21)	7	10	6
2032	265	7.1%	10.1%	27	21	19	(24)	6	10	6
2033	281	6.1%	10.1%	28	22	21	(28)	6	10	5
2034	295	5.1%	10.1%	30	23	22	(31)	5	9	5
2035	307	4.0%	10.1%	31	24	22	(34)	4	9	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-119

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)154

PV of Terminal Value68

Enterprise Value-51

(–) Net Debt-140

Equity Value88

(÷) Shares Outstanding8

Fair Value per Share$11.06

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$-6	$1	$18	$34	$51
8.0%	$-5	$1	$14	$27	$40
9.0%	$-5	$0	$11	$22	$32
10.0%	$-4	$0	$9	$18	$27
11.0%	$-4	$0	$8	$16	$23

Current price: $66.37. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.28

Market Price

$66.37

Upside / Downside

-10.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ambiq Micro, Inc. (AMBQ) has a fair value of $59.28 based on 8 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ambiq Micro, Inc.AMBQ	529	5.4x	5.5x
AXT, Inc.AXTI	3,594	40.0x	44.7x
Wolfspeed, Inc.WOLF	1,198	9.6x	9.7x
Arteris, Inc.AIP	978	13.5x	16.6x
Weave Communications, Inc.WEAV	420	1.9x	2.2x
Cerence Inc.CRNC	383	2.1x	1.6x
Backblaze, Inc.BLZE	240	2.0x	2.5x
Blaize Holdings, Inc.BZAI	212	4.4x	70.3x
Domo, Inc.DOMO	143	0.8x	0.8x
Industry Median		3.2x	6.1x
(*) Revenue		73	71
= Enterprise Value		235	432
(-) Net Debt		-140	-140
Equity Value		374	572
(/) Outstanding shares		8	8
Fair Price		$47	$72

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.28

-10.7%