Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 30.0% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 62, DPO 79, DIO 1184). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (125% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1.12 per share, suggesting AGCC is overvalued by 93.9% at the current price of $18.39.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| (−) Net Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBITDA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 10.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 40 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.34% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 28 |
| Enterprise Value | 22 | |||||
| Projection Period | -6 | -25.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 28 | 125.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 0 | |||||
| Equity Value | 22 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 20M | |||||
| Fair Price | $1 | -93.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 6.6x | 8.6x | 10.6x | 12.6x | 14.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 6.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| 7.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| 8.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| 9.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Current price: $18.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 30.0% to 19.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 62, DPO 79, DIO 1184). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (124% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2.74 per share, suggesting AGCC is overvalued by 85.1% at the current price of $18.39.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| (−) Net Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EBITDA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 10 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -1 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 10.6x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 138 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.34% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | 68 |
| Enterprise Value | 54 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -13 | -24.4% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 68 | 124.4% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 0 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 54 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 20M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $3 | -85.1% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 6.6x | 8.6x | 10.6x | 12.6x | 14.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
| 6.3% | $2 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| 7.3% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| 8.3% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 9.3% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
Current price: $18.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) has a fair value of $0.72 based on 2 comparable companies in the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agencia Comercial Spirits LtdAGCC | 366 | — | — |
| Acme United Corporation | 158 | 16.7x | 16.6x |
| Legacy Education Inc. | 148 | 19.8x | 18.6x |
| Industry Median | 18.3x | 17.6x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 1 | ||
| Equity Value | 14 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 20 | ||
| Fair Price | $1 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) has a fair value of $0.54 based on 4 comparable companies in the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agencia Comercial Spirits LtdAGCC | 366 | 354.0x | — |
| Acme United Corporation | 158 | 8.9x | 9.2x |
| Legacy Education Inc. | 148 | 12.5x | 12.8x |
| Chegg, Inc. | 130 | 11.9x | 6.4x |
| HF Foods Group Inc. | 100 | 9.2x | 9.5x |
| Industry Median | 10.6x | 9.4x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 1 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 11 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 0 | ||
| Equity Value | 11 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 20 | ||
| Fair Price | $1 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) has a fair value of $0.10 based on 8 comparable companies in the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agencia Comercial Spirits LtdAGCC | 366 | 144.1x | — |
| Acme United Corporation | 158 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Legacy Education Inc. | 148 | 2.3x | 2.3x |
| Chegg, Inc. | 130 | 0.5x | 0.3x |
| HF Foods Group Inc. | 100 | 0.3x | 0.3x |
| Ispire Technology Inc. | 100 | 0.6x | 0.5x |
| Skillsoft Corp. | 73 | 1.1x | 1.0x |
| The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. | 60 | 0.5x | 0.6x |
| Epsium Enterprise Limited Ordinary Shares | 17 | 2.9x | — |
| Industry Median | 0.8x | 0.6x | |
| (*) Revenue | 3 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 2 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 0 | ||
| Equity Value | 2 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 20 | ||
| Fair Price | $0 | ||
Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.3% and normalized earnings of $730,542.97, the company has a fair value of $0.50 per share. The EPV range is $0.41 – $0.63 based on WACC sensitivity (5.8% – 8.8%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (/) WACC | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| (-) Net debt | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity Value | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Fair Price | $0.41 | $0.50 | $0.63 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.