Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

ZNTL

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$4.23

Market Cap: $300.04M

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.24 – $5.44	$0.24	-91.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.16 – $9.49	$1.46	-45.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.47 – $17.44	$4.71	+75.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.46

Market Price

$4.23

Upside / Downside

-65.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -283.6% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.4%, Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) has an intrinsic value of $1.46 per share (range: $0.16 – $9.49).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-283.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	71	5.0%	-224.2%	-159	-159	1	(1)	-0	-158	-152
2026	2	-97.0%	-164.8%	-4	-4	0	(0)	2	-6	-5
2027	23	953.8%	-105.4%	-24	-24	0	(0)	-1	-23	-19
2028	72	217.3%	-46.0%	-33	-33	1	(2)	-2	-32	-24
2029	187	160.7%	13.3%	25	20	4	(6)	-4	22	15
2030	323	73.2%	13.3%	43	34	6	(12)	-5	33	21
2031	337	4.3%	13.3%	45	36	6	(15)	-1	28	17
2032	351	4.0%	13.3%	47	37	7	(17)	-0	27	15
2033	364	3.7%	13.3%	49	38	7	(20)	-0	26	13
2034	376	3.3%	13.3%	50	40	7	(23)	-0	25	11

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-107

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)472

PV of Terminal Value220

Enterprise Value112

(–) Net Debt9

Equity Value104

(÷) Shares Outstanding71

Fair Value per Share$1.46

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$9
7.4%	$-1	$1	$3	$4	$6
8.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$3	$4
9.4%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$3
10.4%	$-2	$-1	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $4.23. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.24

Market Price

$4.23

Upside / Downside

-94.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-283.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	71	5.0%	-224.2%	-159	-159	1	(1)	-0	-158	-152
2026	2	-97.0%	-164.8%	-4	-4	0	(0)	2	-6	-5
2027	23	953.8%	-105.4%	-24	-24	0	(1)	-1	-23	-19
2028	72	217.3%	-46.0%	-33	-33	1	(3)	-2	-33	-25
2029	187	160.7%	13.3%	25	20	4	(11)	-4	16	11

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-190

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)310

PV of Terminal Value216

Enterprise Value25

(–) Net Debt9

Equity Value17

(÷) Shares Outstanding71

Fair Value per Share$0.24

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$-1	$1	$2	$4	$5
7.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
8.4%	$-2	$-1	$0	$1	$2
9.4%	$-2	$-1	$-0	$0	$1
10.4%	$-2	$-1	$-1	$-0	$1

Current price: $4.23. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.71

Market Price

$4.23

Upside / Downside

+11.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) has a fair value of $4.71 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ZNTL	301	4.6x	144.4x
Sutro Biopharma, Inc.STRO	204	1.6x	4.6x
MacroGenics, Inc.MGNX	202	1.7x	2.5x
Whitehawk Therapeutics IncWHWK	165	17.9x	14.5x
Pliant Therapeutics, Inc.PLRX	81	18.5x	11.7x
Industry Median		9.8x	8.2x
(*) Revenue		67	2
= Enterprise Value		659	28
(-) Net Debt		9	9
Equity Value		650	19
(/) Outstanding shares		71	71
Fair Price		$9	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.71

+11.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.24 – $5.44

$0.24

-91.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.16 – $9.49

$1.46

-45.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.47 – $17.44

$4.71

+75.0%

DCF Analysis

Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.46

Market Price

$4.23

Upside / Downside

-65.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-283.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	71	5.0%	-224.2%	-159	-159	1	(1)	-0	-158	-152
2026	2	-97.0%	-164.8%	-4	-4	0	(0)	2	-6	-5
2027	23	953.8%	-105.4%	-24	-24	0	(0)	-1	-23	-19
2028	72	217.3%	-46.0%	-33	-33	1	(2)	-2	-32	-24
2029	187	160.7%	13.3%	25	20	4	(6)	-4	22	15
2030	323	73.2%	13.3%	43	34	6	(12)	-5	33	21
2031	337	4.3%	13.3%	45	36	6	(15)	-1	28	17
2032	351	4.0%	13.3%	47	37	7	(17)	-0	27	15
2033	364	3.7%	13.3%	49	38	7	(20)	-0	26	13
2034	376	3.3%	13.3%	50	40	7	(23)	-0	25	11

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-107

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)472

PV of Terminal Value220

Enterprise Value112

(–) Net Debt9

Equity Value104

(÷) Shares Outstanding71

Fair Value per Share$1.46

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.4%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$9
7.4%	$-1	$1	$3	$4	$6
8.4%	$-2	$-0	$1	$3	$4
9.4%	$-2	$-1	$1	$2	$3
10.4%	$-2	$-1	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $4.23. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.71

Market Price

$4.23

Upside / Downside

+11.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ZNTL) has a fair value of $4.71 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.ZNTL	301	4.6x	144.4x
Sutro Biopharma, Inc.STRO	204	1.6x	4.6x
MacroGenics, Inc.MGNX	202	1.7x	2.5x
Whitehawk Therapeutics IncWHWK	165	17.9x	14.5x
Pliant Therapeutics, Inc.PLRX	81	18.5x	11.7x
Industry Median		9.8x	8.2x
(*) Revenue		67	2
= Enterprise Value		659	28
(-) Net Debt		9	9
Equity Value		650	19
(/) Outstanding shares		71	71
Fair Price		$9	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.71

+11.3%