Xometry, Inc.

XMTR

IndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryNASDAQ

$78.50

Market Cap: $3.95B

Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 8, 2026 23:53

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.39 – $63.31	$4.62	-94.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.40 – $150.52	$29.72	-62.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$26.48 – $148.17	$47.96	-38.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$29.72

Market Price

$78.50

Upside / Downside

-62.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -6.6% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.1%, Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) has an intrinsic value of $29.72 per share (range: $1.40 – $150.52).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	833	21.3%	-3.3%	-27	-27	19	(32)	14	-55	-53
2027	986	18.4%	0.1%	1	1	22	(40)	13	-31	-27
2028	1,139	15.5%	3.5%	39	31	25	(49)	13	-6	-5
2029	1,481	30.0%	6.8%	101	80	33	(68)	29	16	12
2030	1,925	30.0%	10.2%	196	155	43	(93)	38	67	47
2031	2,467	28.1%	10.2%	251	199	55	(125)	46	83	54
2032	3,037	23.1%	10.2%	310	245	68	(161)	48	103	62
2033	3,586	18.1%	10.2%	365	289	80	(198)	47	124	69
2034	4,054	13.1%	10.2%	413	326	90	(234)	40	143	74
2035	4,380	8.0%	10.2%	446	353	98	(263)	28	160	76

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)310

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,219

PV of Terminal Value1,535

Enterprise Value1,844

(–) Net Debt334

Equity Value1,510

(÷) Shares Outstanding51

Fair Value per Share$29.72

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.1%	$-13	$14	$60	$105	$151
7.1%	$-13	$8	$41	$74	$107
8.1%	$-13	$4	$30	$55	$81
9.1%	$-12	$1	$22	$43	$64
10.1%	$-12	$-0	$17	$34	$51

Current price: $78.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.62

Market Price

$78.50

Upside / Downside

-94.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	833	21.3%	-3.3%	-27	-27	19	(34)	14	-57	-55
2027	986	18.4%	0.1%	1	1	22	(45)	13	-35	-32
2028	1,139	15.5%	3.5%	39	31	25	(58)	13	-14	-12
2029	1,481	30.0%	6.8%	101	80	33	(82)	29	2	2
2030	1,925	30.0%	10.2%	196	155	43	(116)	38	45	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-65

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)900

PV of Terminal Value634

Enterprise Value569

(–) Net Debt334

Equity Value235

(÷) Shares Outstanding51

Fair Value per Share$4.62

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.1%	$-11	$-10	$14	$39	$63
7.1%	$-11	$-10	$8	$26	$45
8.1%	$-11	$-9	$5	$19	$33
9.1%	$-11	$-9	$2	$14	$26
10.1%	$-11	$-9	$0	$10	$20

Current price: $78.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$47.96

Market Price

$78.50

Upside / Downside

-38.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) has a fair value of $47.96 based on 6 comparable companies in the Industrial - Machinery industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Xometry, Inc.XMTR	3,989	6.3x	8.0x
Standex International CorporationSXI	3,254	4.8x	5.2x
American Superconductor CorporationAMSC	2,628	11.5x	8.7x
TIC Solutions, Inc.TIC	2,213	2.3x	3.1x
Enerpac Tool Group Corp.EPAC	1,875	3.2x	3.3x
Power Solutions International, Inc.PSIX	1,659	2.4x	2.5x
Enovix CorporationENVX	1,436	42.5x	33.2x
Industry Median		4.0x	4.3x
(*) Revenue		687	543
= Enterprise Value		2,717	2,826
(-) Net Debt		334	334
Equity Value		2,382	2,491
(/) Outstanding shares		51	51
Fair Price		$47	$49

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.96

-38.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.39 – $63.31

$4.62

-94.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.40 – $150.52

$29.72

-62.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$26.48 – $148.17

$47.96

-38.9%

DCF Analysis

Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$29.72

Market Price

$78.50

Upside / Downside

-62.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	833	21.3%	-3.3%	-27	-27	19	(32)	14	-55	-53
2027	986	18.4%	0.1%	1	1	22	(40)	13	-31	-27
2028	1,139	15.5%	3.5%	39	31	25	(49)	13	-6	-5
2029	1,481	30.0%	6.8%	101	80	33	(68)	29	16	12
2030	1,925	30.0%	10.2%	196	155	43	(93)	38	67	47
2031	2,467	28.1%	10.2%	251	199	55	(125)	46	83	54
2032	3,037	23.1%	10.2%	310	245	68	(161)	48	103	62
2033	3,586	18.1%	10.2%	365	289	80	(198)	47	124	69
2034	4,054	13.1%	10.2%	413	326	90	(234)	40	143	74
2035	4,380	8.0%	10.2%	446	353	98	(263)	28	160	76

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)310

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,219

PV of Terminal Value1,535

Enterprise Value1,844

(–) Net Debt334

Equity Value1,510

(÷) Shares Outstanding51

Fair Value per Share$29.72

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.1%	$-13	$14	$60	$105	$151
7.1%	$-13	$8	$41	$74	$107
8.1%	$-13	$4	$30	$55	$81
9.1%	$-12	$1	$22	$43	$64
10.1%	$-12	$-0	$17	$34	$51

Current price: $78.50. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$47.96

Market Price

$78.50

Upside / Downside

-38.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) has a fair value of $47.96 based on 6 comparable companies in the Industrial - Machinery industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Machinery

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Xometry, Inc.XMTR	3,989	6.3x	8.0x
Standex International CorporationSXI	3,254	4.8x	5.2x
American Superconductor CorporationAMSC	2,628	11.5x	8.7x
TIC Solutions, Inc.TIC	2,213	2.3x	3.1x
Enerpac Tool Group Corp.EPAC	1,875	3.2x	3.3x
Power Solutions International, Inc.PSIX	1,659	2.4x	2.5x
Enovix CorporationENVX	1,436	42.5x	33.2x
Industry Median		4.0x	4.3x
(*) Revenue		687	543
= Enterprise Value		2,717	2,826
(-) Net Debt		334	334
Equity Value		2,382	2,491
(/) Outstanding shares		51	51
Fair Price		$47	$49

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.96

-38.9%