Exagen Inc.

XGN

HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ

$3.71

Market Cap: $89.24M

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.14 – $12.21	$4.77	+54.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.47 – $13.93	$5.53	+79.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$6.15 – $17.92	$8.57	+178.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.53

Market Price

$3.71

Upside / Downside

+49.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -21.1% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.1%, Exagen Inc. (XGN) has an intrinsic value of $5.53 per share (range: $1.47 – $13.93).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-21.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	71	6.8%	-14.2%	-10	-10	2	(3)	-0	-10	-10
2027	81	13.5%	-7.3%	-6	-6	3	(3)	1	-8	-7
2028	91	12.3%	-0.5%	-0	-0	3	(4)	1	-2	-2
2029	101	12.0%	6.4%	7	5	3	(5)	1	3	2
2030	107	5.2%	13.3%	14	11	3	(5)	0	9	6
2031	115	7.5%	13.3%	15	12	4	(6)	1	9	6
2032	122	6.6%	13.3%	16	13	4	(6)	1	10	5
2033	129	5.7%	13.3%	17	14	4	(7)	1	10	5
2034	135	4.8%	13.3%	18	14	4	(8)	1	10	5
2035	141	3.9%	13.3%	19	15	4	(8)	0	10	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)16

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)175

PV of Terminal Value77

Enterprise Value92

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value119

(÷) Shares Outstanding22

Fair Value per Share$5.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.1%	$3	$6	$8	$11	$14
8.1%	$2	$5	$7	$9	$11
9.1%	$2	$4	$6	$7	$9
10.1%	$2	$3	$5	$6	$8
11.1%	$1	$3	$4	$5	$7

Current price: $3.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.77

Market Price

$3.71

Upside / Downside

+28.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -21.1% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.1%, Exagen Inc. (XGN) has an intrinsic value of $4.77 per share (range: $1.14 – $12.21).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-21.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	71	6.8%	-14.2%	-10	-10	2	(3)	-0	-10	-10
2027	81	13.5%	-7.3%	-6	-6	3	(4)	1	-8	-7
2028	91	12.3%	-0.5%	-0	-0	3	(5)	1	-3	-2
2029	101	12.0%	6.4%	7	5	3	(6)	1	2	1
2030	107	5.2%	13.3%	14	11	3	(6)	0	8	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-13

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)131

PV of Terminal Value89

Enterprise Value76

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value103

(÷) Shares Outstanding22

Fair Value per Share$4.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.1%	$2	$5	$7	$10	$12
8.1%	$2	$4	$6	$8	$10
9.1%	$2	$3	$5	$6	$8
10.1%	$1	$3	$4	$5	$7
11.1%	$1	$2	$4	$5	$6

Current price: $3.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.59

Market Price

$3.71

Upside / Downside

+131.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Exagen Inc. (XGN) has a fair value of $8.59 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Exagen Inc.XGN	80	0.8x	0.7x
BioAge Labs, Inc.BIOA	631	49.7x	98.6x
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.ACRS	458	56.3x	97.4x
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.VNDA	412	1.6x	1.3x
NeoGenomics, Inc.NEO	208	0.7x	0.7x
Sight Sciences, Inc.SGHT	192	1.8x	1.8x
Stereotaxis, Inc.STXS	183	5.4x	7.4x
Alpha Teknova, Inc.TKNO	167	4.4x	4.4x
Sanara MedTech Inc.SMTI	158	1.8x	3.0x
Lifecore Biomedical, Inc.LFCR	153	2.1x	2.2x
MDxHealth S.A.MDXH	105	1.6x	1.6x
Industry Median		2.0x	2.6x
(*) Revenue		67	71
= Enterprise Value		132	184
(-) Net Debt		-27	-27
Equity Value		159	211
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$7	$10

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.59

+131.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.14 – $12.21

$4.77

+54.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.47 – $13.93

$5.53

+79.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$6.15 – $17.92

$8.57

+178.3%

DCF Analysis

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.53

Market Price

$3.71

Upside / Downside

+49.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-21.1%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	71	6.8%	-14.2%	-10	-10	2	(3)	-0	-10	-10
2027	81	13.5%	-7.3%	-6	-6	3	(3)	1	-8	-7
2028	91	12.3%	-0.5%	-0	-0	3	(4)	1	-2	-2
2029	101	12.0%	6.4%	7	5	3	(5)	1	3	2
2030	107	5.2%	13.3%	14	11	3	(5)	0	9	6
2031	115	7.5%	13.3%	15	12	4	(6)	1	9	6
2032	122	6.6%	13.3%	16	13	4	(6)	1	10	5
2033	129	5.7%	13.3%	17	14	4	(7)	1	10	5
2034	135	4.8%	13.3%	18	14	4	(8)	1	10	5
2035	141	3.9%	13.3%	19	15	4	(8)	0	10	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)16

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)175

PV of Terminal Value77

Enterprise Value92

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value119

(÷) Shares Outstanding22

Fair Value per Share$5.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.1%	$3	$6	$8	$11	$14
8.1%	$2	$5	$7	$9	$11
9.1%	$2	$4	$6	$7	$9
10.1%	$2	$3	$5	$6	$8
11.1%	$1	$3	$4	$5	$7

Current price: $3.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.59

Market Price

$3.71

Upside / Downside

+131.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Exagen Inc. (XGN) has a fair value of $8.59 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Exagen Inc.XGN	80	0.8x	0.7x
BioAge Labs, Inc.BIOA	631	49.7x	98.6x
Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.ACRS	458	56.3x	97.4x
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.VNDA	412	1.6x	1.3x
NeoGenomics, Inc.NEO	208	0.7x	0.7x
Sight Sciences, Inc.SGHT	192	1.8x	1.8x
Stereotaxis, Inc.STXS	183	5.4x	7.4x
Alpha Teknova, Inc.TKNO	167	4.4x	4.4x
Sanara MedTech Inc.SMTI	158	1.8x	3.0x
Lifecore Biomedical, Inc.LFCR	153	2.1x	2.2x
MDxHealth S.A.MDXH	105	1.6x	1.6x
Industry Median		2.0x	2.6x
(*) Revenue		67	71
= Enterprise Value		132	184
(-) Net Debt		-27	-27
Equity Value		159	211
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$7	$10

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.59

+131.5%