Varonis Systems, Inc.

VRNS

TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureNASDAQ

$27.84

Market Cap: $3.27B

Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.80 – $20.66	$0.80	-96.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$10.72 – $31.80	$18.26	-22.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.80

Market Price

$27.84

Upside / Downside

-97.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -23.5% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) has an intrinsic value of $0.80 per share (range: $0.80 – $20.66).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-23.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	726	16.5%	-16.8%	-122	-122	23	(17)	19	-134	-129
2027	855	17.7%	-10.1%	-86	-86	28	(23)	45	-127	-113
2028	1,001	17.1%	-3.4%	-34	-34	32	(31)	52	-85	-69
2029	1,126	12.4%	3.3%	37	29	36	(40)	44	-18	-14
2030	1,266	12.4%	10.0%	126	100	41	(50)	49	41	29
2031	1,404	10.9%	10.0%	140	111	45	(61)	48	46	30
2032	1,534	9.3%	10.0%	153	121	50	(73)	46	51	31
2033	1,652	7.7%	10.0%	165	130	53	(86)	42	56	31
2034	1,754	6.2%	10.0%	175	138	57	(98)	36	61	31
2035	1,834	4.6%	10.0%	183	145	59	(110)	28	65	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-142

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,298

PV of Terminal Value614

Enterprise Value473

(–) Net Debt369

Equity Value103

(÷) Shares Outstanding129

Fair Value per Share$0.80

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.2%	$-7	$-2	$5	$13	$21
7.2%	$-7	$-3	$3	$8	$14
8.2%	$-7	$-4	$1	$5	$10
9.2%	$-7	$-4	$-0	$3	$7
10.2%	$-6	$-4	$-1	$2	$5

Current price: $27.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.26

Market Price

$27.84

Upside / Downside

-34.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) has a fair value of $18.26 based on 9 comparable companies in the Software - Infrastructure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Infrastructure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Varonis Systems, Inc.VRNS	3,596	6.4x	7.1x
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.DOCN	8,010	9.4x	10.9x
Silicon Laboratories Inc.SLAB	6,904	8.3x	11.2x
Compass, Inc.COMP	3,823	0.6x	0.3x
DLocal LimitedDLO	3,710	2.8x	2.1x
Cellebrite DI Ltd.CLBT	3,517	7.2x	7.2x
Box, Inc.BOX	3,462	3.5x	3.8x
Qualys, Inc.QLYS	3,239	4.6x	4.6x
Navan, Inc.NAVN	2,940	6.2x	5.4x
Via Transportation, Inc.VIA	1,234	2.1x	1.2x
Industry Median		4.6x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		624	558
= Enterprise Value		2,875	2,581
(-) Net Debt		369	369
Equity Value		2,506	2,212
(/) Outstanding shares		129	129
Fair Price		$19	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.26

-34.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.80 – $20.66

$0.80

-96.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$10.72 – $31.80

$18.26

-22.9%

DCF Analysis

Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.80

Market Price

$27.84

Upside / Downside

-97.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-23.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	726	16.5%	-16.8%	-122	-122	23	(17)	19	-134	-129
2027	855	17.7%	-10.1%	-86	-86	28	(23)	45	-127	-113
2028	1,001	17.1%	-3.4%	-34	-34	32	(31)	52	-85	-69
2029	1,126	12.4%	3.3%	37	29	36	(40)	44	-18	-14
2030	1,266	12.4%	10.0%	126	100	41	(50)	49	41	29
2031	1,404	10.9%	10.0%	140	111	45	(61)	48	46	30
2032	1,534	9.3%	10.0%	153	121	50	(73)	46	51	31
2033	1,652	7.7%	10.0%	165	130	53	(86)	42	56	31
2034	1,754	6.2%	10.0%	175	138	57	(98)	36	61	31
2035	1,834	4.6%	10.0%	183	145	59	(110)	28	65	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-142

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,298

PV of Terminal Value614

Enterprise Value473

(–) Net Debt369

Equity Value103

(÷) Shares Outstanding129

Fair Value per Share$0.80

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.2%	$-7	$-2	$5	$13	$21
7.2%	$-7	$-3	$3	$8	$14
8.2%	$-7	$-4	$1	$5	$10
9.2%	$-7	$-4	$-0	$3	$7
10.2%	$-6	$-4	$-1	$2	$5

Current price: $27.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 35.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$18.26

Market Price

$27.84

Upside / Downside

-34.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Infrastructure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Varonis Systems, Inc.VRNS	3,596	6.4x	7.1x
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.DOCN	8,010	9.4x	10.9x
Silicon Laboratories Inc.SLAB	6,904	8.3x	11.2x
Compass, Inc.COMP	3,823	0.6x	0.3x
DLocal LimitedDLO	3,710	2.8x	2.1x
Cellebrite DI Ltd.CLBT	3,517	7.2x	7.2x
Box, Inc.BOX	3,462	3.5x	3.8x
Qualys, Inc.QLYS	3,239	4.6x	4.6x
Navan, Inc.NAVN	2,940	6.2x	5.4x
Via Transportation, Inc.VIA	1,234	2.1x	1.2x
Industry Median		4.6x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		624	558
= Enterprise Value		2,875	2,581
(-) Net Debt		369	369
Equity Value		2,506	2,212
(/) Outstanding shares		129	129
Fair Price		$19	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$18.26

-34.4%