Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Vericel Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 17.1% to 26.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 101, DPO 105, DIO 94). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (239% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2.58 per share, suggesting VCEL is overvalued by 92.7% at the current price of $35.13.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -9 | -11 | -13 | -15 | -18 | -19 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| (+) D&A | 27 | 33 | 41 | 46 | 46 | 47 |
| EBITDA | 19 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 29 | 30 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 39 | 46 | 54 | 62 | 78 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 0 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 36 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -21 | -39 | -42 | -47 | -86 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 472 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -20 | -34 | -35 | -35 | -60 | 316 |
| Enterprise Value | 133 | |||||
| Projection Period | -184 | -138.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 316 | 238.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (2) | |||||
| Equity Value | 134 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 52M | |||||
| Fair Price | $3 | -92.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.8x | 13.8x | 15.8x | 17.8x | 19.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
| 7.3% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| 8.3% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| 9.3% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
| 10.3% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
Current price: $35.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Vericel Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 17.1% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 101, DPO 105, DIO 94). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (366% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.8x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $2.79 per share, suggesting VCEL is overvalued by 92.0% at the current price of $35.13.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -9 | -11 | -13 | -15 | -18 | -21 | -23 | -25 | -27 | -28 | -29 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (+) D&A | 27 | 33 | 41 | 46 | 46 | 56 | 66 | 76 | 87 | 98 | 100 |
| EBITDA | 19 | 23 | 29 | 33 | 29 | 37 | 45 | 54 | 63 | 72 | 74 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 39 | 46 | 54 | 62 | 78 | 89 | 99 | 108 | 116 | 121 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 0 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 36 | 23 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 13 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -21 | -39 | -42 | -47 | -86 | -75 | -76 | -74 | -70 | -62 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.8x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 1,171 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.33% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -20 | -34 | -35 | -35 | -60 | -48 | -45 | -41 | -35 | -29 | 526 |
| Enterprise Value | 144 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -382 | -266.0% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 526 | 366.0% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (2) | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 146 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 52M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $3 | -92.0% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.8x | 13.8x | 15.8x | 17.8x | 19.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $1 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 |
| 7.3% | $1 | $2 | $3 | $5 | $6 |
| 8.3% | $0 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 |
| 9.3% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $5 |
| 10.3% | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 |
Current price: $35.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Vericel Corporation (VCEL) has a fair value of $4.78 based on 3 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vericel CorporationVCEL | 1,829 | 109.8x | 80.9x |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 2,025 | 7.4x | 18.7x |
| Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | 1,793 | 11.4x | 8.6x |
| MannKind Corporation | 1,088 | 176.0x | — |
| Industry Median | 11.4x | 13.7x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 17 | 23 | |
| Equity Value | 189 | 309 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 52 | 52 | |
| Fair Price | $4 | $6 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Vericel Corporation (VCEL) has a fair value of $9.31 based on 3 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vericel CorporationVCEL | 1,829 | 60.3x | 51.5x |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 2,025 | 15.8x | 13.7x |
| Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | 1,793 | 5.0x | 4.3x |
| MannKind Corporation | 1,088 | 54.0x | 41.0x |
| Industry Median | 15.8x | 13.7x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 30 | 35 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 479 | 487 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -2 | -2 | |
| Equity Value | 481 | 488 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 52 | 52 | |
| Fair Price | $9 | $9 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Vericel Corporation (VCEL) has a fair value of $90.43 based on 8 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vericel CorporationVCEL | 1,829 | 6.6x | 5.7x |
| Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. | 2,113 | 28.1x | 28.1x |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 2,025 | 7.1x | 6.2x |
| Mesoblast Limited | 1,897 | 108.4x | 14.9x |
| Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | 1,793 | 1.5x | 1.3x |
| Nuvation Bio Inc. | 1,663 | 24.0x | 7.4x |
| uniQure N.V. | 1,488 | 120.8x | 93.6x |
| Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. | 1,442 | 18.1x | 22.7x |
| MannKind Corporation | 1,088 | 4.3x | 3.2x |
| Industry Median | 21.0x | 11.1x | |
| (*) Revenue | 276 | 323 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 5,811 | 3,603 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -2 | -2 | |
| Equity Value | 5,813 | 3,605 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 52 | 52 | |
| Fair Price | $112 | $69 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $10.86 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $0.43. The current PEG ratio is 1.78.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 45.5% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $0.43 |
| Fair Value | $10.86 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.32 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $0.43 | +35.8% | 6 |
| FY2027E | $0.79 | +82.9% | 6 |
| FY2028E | $1.28 | +61.3% | 6 |
| FY2029E | $1.65 | +28.7% | 5 |
| FY2030E | $2.09 | +26.7% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 45.5%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-7.5M | $-0.16 | — |
| FY2022 | $-16.7M | $-0.35 | — |
| FY2023 | $-3.2M | $-0.07 | — |
| FY2024 | $10.4M | $0.20 | — |
| FY2025 | $16.5M | $0.32 | +60.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 60.0%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.