INNOVATE Corp.

VATE

IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNYSE

$12.68

Market Cap: $173.02M

INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 01:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$3.21 – $155.84	$50.10	+295.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.49 – $84.57	$7.90	-37.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.90

Market Price

$12.68

Upside / Downside

-37.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from 2.7% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 11.2%, INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) has an intrinsic value of $7.90 per share (range: $2.49 – $84.57).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

2.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

11.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

4.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,608	29.0%	4.3%	68	54	44	(34)	96	-32	-30
2027	1,939	20.6%	5.8%	112	88	53	(49)	58	34	29
2028	1,995	2.9%	7.3%	145	115	54	(59)	10	100	77
2029	1,465	-26.6%	8.8%	129	102	40	(50)	-92	184	127
2030	1,092	-25.5%	10.3%	112	89	30	(42)	-65	142	88
2031	1,105	1.2%	10.3%	114	90	30	(47)	2	71	39
2032	1,122	1.6%	10.3%	116	91	31	(53)	3	66	33
2033	1,144	1.9%	10.3%	118	93	31	(59)	4	62	28
2034	1,170	2.3%	10.3%	120	95	32	(65)	5	57	23
2035	1,201	2.6%	10.3%	124	98	33	(72)	5	53	19

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)433

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 4.0%)762

PV of Terminal Value277

Enterprise Value710

(–) Net Debt605

Equity Value104

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$7.90

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
9.2%	$-33	$-6	$24	$54	$85
10.2%	$-34	$-10	$15	$40	$66
11.2%	$-34	$-14	$8	$30	$52
12.2%	$-35	$-17	$2	$22	$41
13.2%	$-35	$-19	$-2	$15	$33

Current price: $12.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$50.10

Market Price

$12.68

Upside / Downside

+295.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

2.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

11.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

4.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,608	29.0%	4.3%	68	54	44	(41)	96	-39	-37
2027	1,939	20.6%	5.8%	112	88	53	(66)	58	18	15
2028	1,995	2.9%	7.3%	145	115	54	(85)	10	74	57
2029	1,465	-26.6%	8.8%	129	102	40	(75)	-92	159	109
2030	1,092	-25.5%	10.3%	112	89	30	(66)	-65	118	73

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)218

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 4.0%)1,696

PV of Terminal Value1,050

Enterprise Value1,268

(–) Net Debt605

Equity Value662

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$50.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
9.2%	$26	$59	$91	$123	$156
10.2%	$13	$40	$67	$94	$122
11.2%	$3	$27	$50	$74	$97
12.2%	$-4	$17	$37	$58	$78
13.2%	$-10	$9	$27	$45	$64

Current price: $12.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$3.21 – $155.84

$50.10

+295.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.49 – $84.57

$7.90

-37.7%

DCF Analysis

INNOVATE Corp. (VATE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.90

Market Price

$12.68

Upside / Downside

-37.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

2.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

11.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

4.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,608	29.0%	4.3%	68	54	44	(34)	96	-32	-30
2027	1,939	20.6%	5.8%	112	88	53	(49)	58	34	29
2028	1,995	2.9%	7.3%	145	115	54	(59)	10	100	77
2029	1,465	-26.6%	8.8%	129	102	40	(50)	-92	184	127
2030	1,092	-25.5%	10.3%	112	89	30	(42)	-65	142	88
2031	1,105	1.2%	10.3%	114	90	30	(47)	2	71	39
2032	1,122	1.6%	10.3%	116	91	31	(53)	3	66	33
2033	1,144	1.9%	10.3%	118	93	31	(59)	4	62	28
2034	1,170	2.3%	10.3%	120	95	32	(65)	5	57	23
2035	1,201	2.6%	10.3%	124	98	33	(72)	5	53	19

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)433

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 4.0%)762

PV of Terminal Value277

Enterprise Value710

(–) Net Debt605

Equity Value104

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$7.90

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
9.2%	$-33	$-6	$24	$54	$85
10.2%	$-34	$-10	$15	$40	$66
11.2%	$-34	$-14	$8	$30	$52
12.2%	$-35	$-17	$2	$22	$41
13.2%	$-35	$-19	$-2	$15	$33

Current price: $12.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.