U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

USPH

HealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesNYSE

$59.00

Market Cap: $897.04M

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 01:20

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$57.51 – $393.66	$113.22	+91.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$91.26 – $560.15	$169.36	+187.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$52.32 – $153.22	$98.49	+66.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$75.90 – $210.61	$133.12	+125.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$24.16 – $42.22	$40.63	-31.1%
EV/EBITDA	$22.13 – $139.33	$45.18	-23.4%
EV/Revenue	$26.60 – $132.69	$33.18	-43.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$71.50 – $71.50	$71.50	+21.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$45.10 – $83.84	$60.30	+2.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$22.56 – $48.50	$31.63	-46.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$113.22

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+91.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 12.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $113.22 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 91.9% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	180
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	13
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	15
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	208

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	42
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	20
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	32
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-39	91	92	100	112	115

Terminal Value						2,558
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	1,825

Enterprise Value	2,108
Projection Period	283	13.4%
Terminal Value	1,825	86.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	390

Equity Value	1,718
(/) Outstanding Shares	15

Fair Price	$113.22

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$164	$193	$233	$293	$394
6.0%	$120	$135	$156	$183	$221
7.0%	$91	$101	$113	$128	$148
8.0%	$72	$78	$86	$96	$107
9.0%	$58	$62	$68	$74	$81

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$169.36

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+187.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 4.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $169.36 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 187.0% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	194	212	228	241	252	259
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	14	15	17	18	18	19
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	16	18	19	21	23	24
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	224	245	264	280	294	301

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	45	50	53	57	59	61
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	21	23	25	27	28	29
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	30	29	26	22	18	18
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-39	91	92	100	112	127	143	159	175	189	194

Terminal Value											4,327
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	88	92	96	98	100	2,203

Enterprise Value	2,960
Projection Period	757	25.6%
Terminal Value	2,203	74.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	390

Equity Value	2,570
(/) Outstanding Shares	15

Fair Price	$169.36

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$256	$294	$347	$427	$560
6.0%	$187	$207	$232	$267	$315
7.0%	$143	$155	$169	$188	$211
8.0%	$113	$121	$130	$140	$154
9.0%	$91	$96	$102	$109	$118

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$98.47

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+66.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 12.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $98.49 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 66.9% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.77x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	180
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	13
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	15
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	208

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	—
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	—
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-39	91	92	100	112	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.8x
Terminal Value						2,244
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	1,601

Enterprise Value	1,884
Projection Period	283	15.0%
Terminal Value	1,601	85.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	390
Equity Value	1,494
(÷) Outstanding Shares	15M
Fair Price	$98	+66.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.8x	8.8x	10.8x	12.8x	14.8x
5.0%	$67	$89	$110	$132	$153
6.0%	$63	$84	$104	$125	$145
7.0%	$59	$79	$98	$118	$138
8.0%	$56	$74	$93	$112	$131
9.0%	$52	$70	$88	$106	$124

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$133.09

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+125.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 4.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $133.12 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 125.6% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.77x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	194	212	228	241	252	259
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	14	15	17	18	18	19
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	16	18	19	21	23	24
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	224	245	264	280	294	301

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	45	50	53	57	59	—
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	21	23	25	27	28	—
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	30	29	26	22	18	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-39	91	92	100	112	127	143	159	175	189	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.8x
Terminal Value											3,246
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	88	92	96	98	100	1,653

Enterprise Value	2,410
Projection Period	757	31.4%
Terminal Value	1,653	68.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	390
Equity Value	2,020
(÷) Outstanding Shares	15M
Fair Price	$133	+125.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.8x	8.8x	10.8x	12.8x	14.8x
5.0%	$113	$137	$162	$186	$211
6.0%	$102	$125	$147	$169	$191
7.0%	$93	$113	$133	$153	$174
8.0%	$84	$102	$121	$139	$158
9.0%	$76	$93	$110	$126	$143

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.63

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-31.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) has a fair value of $40.63 based on 6 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

P/E Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	41.5x	22.3x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	85.4x	31.0x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	13.9x	11.3x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	28.5x	32.9x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	42.5x	38.2x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	24.3x	9.1x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	34.2x	9.4x
Industry Median		31.4x	21.2x
(*) Profit after tax		15	40
Equity Value		472	761
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$31	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.63

-31.1%

Fair Value

$45.18

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-23.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) has a fair value of $45.18 based on 7 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	11.7x	13.8x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	22.8x	18.3x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	10.8x	8.6x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	22.1x	23.8x
AdaptHealth Corp.AHCO	1,537	6.6x	6.2x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	27.5x	37.9x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	9.8x	10.4x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	4.4x	4.6x
Industry Median		10.8x	10.4x
(*) EBITDA		110	93
= Enterprise Value		1,181	970
(-) Net Debt		390	390
Equity Value		791	580
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$52	$38

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.18

-23.4%

Fair Value

$33.18

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-43.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) has a fair value of $33.18 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	1.6x	1.9x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	0.9x	0.7x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	1.0x	0.8x
Neogen CorporationNEOG	1,970	3.1x	3.2x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	0.8x	0.8x
AdaptHealth Corp.AHCO	1,537	1.0x	1.0x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	1.8x	2.4x
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.KMTS	1,229	17.3x	17.8x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	1.4x	1.5x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	1.0x	1.1x
Zenas BioPharma, Inc.ZBIO	860	83.0x	88.4x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		781	666
= Enterprise Value		950	837
(-) Net Debt		390	390
Equity Value		560	447
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$37	$29

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$33.18

-43.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$71.50

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+21.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 3.1% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $71.50 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.86. The current PEG ratio is 0.37.

PEG Ratio

0.37Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 20.6 ÷ (53.4% + 3.1%) = 0.37

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	53.4%
Dividend Yield	+3.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.86
Fair Value	$71.50

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.42	—	—
FY2026E	$2.86	+101.4%	6
FY2027E	$3.34	+16.8%	6

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 53.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$27.8M	$4.49	—
FY2022	$28.3M	$3.34	-25.6%
FY2023	$14.7M	$1.28	-61.7%
FY2024	$26.5M	$1.84	+43.8%
FY2025	$15.1M	$1.42	-22.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -25.0%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$60.30

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+2.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.0% and normalized earnings of $91.2M, the company has a fair value of $60.30 per share. The EPV range is $45.10 – $83.84 based on WACC sensitivity (5.5% – 8.5%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	91	91	91
(/) WACC	8.5%	7.0%	5.5%
Enterprise Value	1,074	1,305	1,662
(-) Net debt	390	390	390
Equity Value	684	915	1,272
(/) Outstanding shares	15	15	15
Fair Price	$45.10	$60.30	$83.84

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$31.63

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-46.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.5% and projected dividend growth of 6.8%, the fair value is $31.63 per share. The DDM range is $22.56 – $48.50 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.80

Dividend Yield

3.05%

Payout Ratio

181.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.55x

FCF Payout Ratio44.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.80	181.7%	+2.3%
2024	$1.76	100.3%	+3.6%
2023	$1.70	164.4%	+3.6%
2022	$1.64	75.4%	+12.9%
2021	$1.45	67.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.93	6.8%	0.9131	$1.76
2027	$2.06	6.8%	0.8338	$1.72
2028	$2.20	6.8%	0.7614	$1.67
2029	$2.35	6.8%	0.6953	$1.63
2030	$2.51	6.8%	0.6349	$1.59
Terminal Value	$2.57 DPS	2.5%		$23.26

PV of Projected Dividends$8.37

PV of Terminal Value$23.26

Fair Value per Share$31.63

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.8%	5.8%	6.8%	7.8%	8.8%
7.5%	$41	$43	$45	$46	$49
8.5%	$34	$35	$37	$39	$40
9.5%	$29	$30	$32	$33	$34
10.5%	$25	$26	$28	$29	$30
11.5%	$23	$24	$24	$25	$27

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 01:20

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$57.51 – $393.66	$113.22	+91.9%
Growth Exit 10Y	$91.26 – $560.15	$169.36	+187.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$52.32 – $153.22	$98.49	+66.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$75.90 – $210.61	$133.12	+125.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$24.16 – $42.22	$40.63	-31.1%
EV/EBITDA	$22.13 – $139.33	$45.18	-23.4%
EV/Revenue	$26.60 – $132.69	$33.18	-43.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$71.50 – $71.50	$71.50	+21.2%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$45.10 – $83.84	$60.30	+2.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$22.56 – $48.50	$31.63	-46.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$113.22

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+91.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	180
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	13
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	15
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	208

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	42
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	20
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	32
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-39	91	92	100	112	115

Terminal Value						2,558
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	1,825

Enterprise Value	2,108
Projection Period	283	13.4%
Terminal Value	1,825	86.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	390

Equity Value	1,718
(/) Outstanding Shares	15

Fair Price	$113.22

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$164	$193	$233	$293	$394
6.0%	$120	$135	$156	$183	$221
7.0%	$91	$101	$113	$128	$148
8.0%	$72	$78	$86	$96	$107
9.0%	$58	$62	$68	$74	$81

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$169.36

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+187.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	194	212	228	241	252	259
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	14	15	17	18	18	19
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	16	18	19	21	23	24
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	224	245	264	280	294	301

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	45	50	53	57	59	61
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	21	23	25	27	28	29
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	30	29	26	22	18	18
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-39	91	92	100	112	127	143	159	175	189	194

Terminal Value											4,327
WACC / Discount Rate	7.0%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	88	92	96	98	100	2,203

Enterprise Value	2,960
Projection Period	757	25.6%
Terminal Value	2,203	74.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	390

Equity Value	2,570
(/) Outstanding Shares	15

Fair Price	$169.36

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.0%	$256	$294	$347	$427	$560
6.0%	$187	$207	$232	$267	$315
7.0%	$143	$155	$169	$188	$211
8.0%	$113	$121	$130	$140	$154
9.0%	$91	$96	$102	$109	$118

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$98.47

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+66.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 12.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $98.49 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 66.9% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.77x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	180
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	13
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	15
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	208

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	—
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	—
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-39	91	92	100	112	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						10.8x
Terminal Value						2,244
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	1,601

Enterprise Value	1,884
Projection Period	283	15.0%
Terminal Value	1,601	85.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	390
Equity Value	1,494
(÷) Outstanding Shares	15M
Fair Price	$98	+66.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.8x	8.8x	10.8x	12.8x	14.8x
5.0%	$67	$89	$110	$132	$153
6.0%	$63	$84	$104	$125	$145
7.0%	$59	$79	$98	$118	$138
8.0%	$56	$74	$93	$112	$131
9.0%	$52	$70	$88	$106	$124

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$133.09

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+125.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 4.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 40, DPO 4, DIO 60). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $133.12 per share, suggesting USPH is undervalued by 125.6% at the current price of $59.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.98%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

10.77x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	119	127	140	157	176	194	212	228	241	252	259
(−) Net Interest	9	9	10	11	13	14	15	17	18	18	19
(+) D&A	10	11	12	13	15	16	18	19	21	23	24
EBITDA	138	147	162	181	203	224	245	264	280	294	301

(−) Tax	28	30	33	37	41	45	50	53	57	59	—
(−) CapEx	13	14	15	17	19	21	23	25	27	28	—
(−) ΔWC	136	12	22	28	31	30	29	26	22	18	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-39	91	92	100	112	127	143	159	175	189	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											10.8x
Terminal Value											3,246
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-38	82	78	79	83	88	92	96	98	100	1,653

Enterprise Value	2,410
Projection Period	757	31.4%
Terminal Value	1,653	68.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	390
Equity Value	2,020
(÷) Outstanding Shares	15M
Fair Price	$133	+125.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	6.8x	8.8x	10.8x	12.8x	14.8x
5.0%	$113	$137	$162	$186	$211
6.0%	$102	$125	$147	$169	$191
7.0%	$93	$113	$133	$153	$174
8.0%	$84	$102	$121	$139	$158
9.0%	$76	$93	$110	$126	$143

Current price: $59.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.63

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-31.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	41.5x	22.3x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	85.4x	31.0x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	13.9x	11.3x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	28.5x	32.9x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	42.5x	38.2x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	24.3x	9.1x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	34.2x	9.4x
Industry Median		31.4x	21.2x
(*) Profit after tax		15	40
Equity Value		472	761
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$31	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.63

-31.1%

Fair Value

$45.18

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-23.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	11.7x	13.8x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	22.8x	18.3x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	10.8x	8.6x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	22.1x	23.8x
AdaptHealth Corp.AHCO	1,537	6.6x	6.2x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	27.5x	37.9x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	9.8x	10.4x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	4.4x	4.6x
Industry Median		10.8x	10.4x
(*) EBITDA		110	93
= Enterprise Value		1,181	970
(-) Net Debt		390	390
Equity Value		791	580
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$52	$38

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.18

-23.4%

Fair Value

$33.18

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-43.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.USPH	895	1.6x	1.9x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	2,190	0.9x	0.7x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,039	1.0x	0.8x
Neogen CorporationNEOG	1,970	3.1x	3.2x
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.HCSG	1,583	0.8x	0.8x
AdaptHealth Corp.AHCO	1,537	1.0x	1.0x
The Pennant Group, Inc.PNTG	1,240	1.8x	2.4x
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.KMTS	1,229	17.3x	17.8x
CONMED CorporationCNMD	1,108	1.4x	1.5x
GoodRx Holdings, Inc.GDRX	1,012	1.0x	1.1x
Zenas BioPharma, Inc.ZBIO	860	83.0x	88.4x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		781	666
= Enterprise Value		950	837
(-) Net Debt		390	390
Equity Value		560	447
(/) Outstanding shares		15	15
Fair Price		$37	$29

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$33.18

-43.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$71.50

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+21.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.37Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 20.6 ÷ (53.4% + 3.1%) = 0.37

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	53.4%
Dividend Yield	+3.1%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.86
Fair Value	$71.50

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.42	—	—
FY2026E	$2.86	+101.4%	6
FY2027E	$3.34	+16.8%	6

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 53.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$27.8M	$4.49	—
FY2022	$28.3M	$3.34	-25.6%
FY2023	$14.7M	$1.28	-61.7%
FY2024	$26.5M	$1.84	+43.8%
FY2025	$15.1M	$1.42	-22.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -25.0%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$60.30

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

+2.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	91	91	91
(/) WACC	8.5%	7.0%	5.5%
Enterprise Value	1,074	1,305	1,662
(-) Net debt	390	390	390
Equity Value	684	915	1,272
(/) Outstanding shares	15	15	15
Fair Price	$45.10	$60.30	$83.84

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$31.63

Market Price

$59.00

Upside / Downside

-46.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.80

Dividend Yield

3.05%

Payout Ratio

181.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.55x

FCF Payout Ratio44.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.80	181.7%	+2.3%
2024	$1.76	100.3%	+3.6%
2023	$1.70	164.4%	+3.6%
2022	$1.64	75.4%	+12.9%
2021	$1.45	67.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.93	6.8%	0.9131	$1.76
2027	$2.06	6.8%	0.8338	$1.72
2028	$2.20	6.8%	0.7614	$1.67
2029	$2.35	6.8%	0.6953	$1.63
2030	$2.51	6.8%	0.6349	$1.59
Terminal Value	$2.57 DPS	2.5%		$23.26

PV of Projected Dividends$8.37

PV of Terminal Value$23.26

Fair Value per Share$31.63

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.8%	5.8%	6.8%	7.8%	8.8%
7.5%	$41	$43	$45	$46	$49
8.5%	$34	$35	$37	$39	$40
9.5%	$29	$30	$32	$33	$34
10.5%	$25	$26	$28	$29	$30
11.5%	$23	$24	$24	$25	$27