Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.

ULCC

IndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesNASDAQ

$4.72

Market Cap: $1.08B

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 16, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$5.19 – $560,882,261,253,037,800.00	$5.19	+22.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$1.03 – $76.99	$1.69	-60.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.19

Market Price

$4.72

Upside / Downside

+10.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.0% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 5.0%, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) has an intrinsic value of $5.19 per share (range: $5.19 – $560,882,261,253,037,800.00).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

5.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

40.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4,458	19.7%	-1.1%	-51	-51	58	(145)	74	-212	-207
2027	4,987	11.8%	1.7%	85	51	65	(177)	4	-65	-61
2028	5,416	8.6%	4.6%	248	149	70	(209)	3	7	6
2029	6,280	16.0%	7.4%	466	280	82	(262)	6	93	79
2030	7,282	16.0%	10.3%	749	449	95	(326)	7	211	169
2031	8,286	13.8%	10.3%	852	511	108	(396)	7	216	165
2032	9,251	11.6%	10.3%	951	571	120	(470)	7	214	156
2033	10,127	9.5%	10.3%	1,042	625	132	(546)	7	204	142
2034	10,869	7.3%	10.3%	1,118	671	141	(619)	6	188	124
2035	11,429	5.2%	10.3%	1,175	705	149	(686)	4	164	103

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)675

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,440

PV of Terminal Value5,309

Enterprise Value5,985

(–) Net Debt4,792

Equity Value1,193

(÷) Shares Outstanding230

Fair Value per Share$5.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
3.0%	$-26	$-22	$159764690431703520	$360323475842370624	$560882261253037824
4.0%	$-26	$-22	$33	$101	$168
5.0%	$-26	$-22	$5	$38	$71
6.0%	$-26	$-22	$-4	$17	$39
7.0%	$-25	$-22	$-9	$7	$23

Current price: $4.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 0.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.69

Market Price

$4.72

Upside / Downside

-64.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) has a fair value of $1.69 based on 10 comparable companies in the Airlines, Airports & Air Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Airlines, Airports & Air Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.ULCC	1,085	1.6x	1.6x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	2,180	2.4x	2.2x
Willis Lease Finance CorporationWLFC	1,387	6.0x	6.4x
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.SNCY	931	1.2x	1.3x
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.VLRS	885	1.3x	1.3x
Sky Harbour Group CorporationSKYH	819	41.9x	41.4x
Montrose Environmental Group, Inc.MEG	751	1.3x	1.6x
Latham Group, Inc.SWIM	705	1.2x	1.3x
Serve Robotics Inc.SERV	583	181.7x	18.5x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	287	0.4x	0.3x
Alta Equipment Group Inc.ALTG	206	0.7x	0.7x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		3,724	3,756
= Enterprise Value		4,908	5,452
(-) Net Debt		4,792	4,792
Equity Value		116	660
(/) Outstanding shares		230	230
Fair Price		$1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.69

-64.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$5.19 – $560,882,261,253,037,800.00

$5.19

+22.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$1.03 – $76.99

$1.69

-60.1%

DCF Analysis

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.19

Market Price

$4.72

Upside / Downside

+10.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

5.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

40.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4,458	19.7%	-1.1%	-51	-51	58	(145)	74	-212	-207
2027	4,987	11.8%	1.7%	85	51	65	(177)	4	-65	-61
2028	5,416	8.6%	4.6%	248	149	70	(209)	3	7	6
2029	6,280	16.0%	7.4%	466	280	82	(262)	6	93	79
2030	7,282	16.0%	10.3%	749	449	95	(326)	7	211	169
2031	8,286	13.8%	10.3%	852	511	108	(396)	7	216	165
2032	9,251	11.6%	10.3%	951	571	120	(470)	7	214	156
2033	10,127	9.5%	10.3%	1,042	625	132	(546)	7	204	142
2034	10,869	7.3%	10.3%	1,118	671	141	(619)	6	188	124
2035	11,429	5.2%	10.3%	1,175	705	149	(686)	4	164	103

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)675

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,440

PV of Terminal Value5,309

Enterprise Value5,985

(–) Net Debt4,792

Equity Value1,193

(÷) Shares Outstanding230

Fair Value per Share$5.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
3.0%	$-26	$-22	$159764690431703520	$360323475842370624	$560882261253037824
4.0%	$-26	$-22	$33	$101	$168
5.0%	$-26	$-22	$5	$38	$71
6.0%	$-26	$-22	$-4	$17	$39
7.0%	$-25	$-22	$-9	$7	$23

Current price: $4.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 0.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.69

Market Price

$4.72

Upside / Downside

-64.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Airlines, Airports & Air Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.ULCC	1,085	1.6x	1.6x
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.HTZ	2,180	2.4x	2.2x
Willis Lease Finance CorporationWLFC	1,387	6.0x	6.4x
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.SNCY	931	1.2x	1.3x
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.VLRS	885	1.3x	1.3x
Sky Harbour Group CorporationSKYH	819	41.9x	41.4x
Montrose Environmental Group, Inc.MEG	751	1.3x	1.6x
Latham Group, Inc.SWIM	705	1.2x	1.3x
Serve Robotics Inc.SERV	583	181.7x	18.5x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	287	0.4x	0.3x
Alta Equipment Group Inc.ALTG	206	0.7x	0.7x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		3,724	3,756
= Enterprise Value		4,908	5,452
(-) Net Debt		4,792	4,792
Equity Value		116	660
(/) Outstanding shares		230	230
Fair Price		$1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.69

-64.3%