10x Genomics, Inc.

TXG

HealthcareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesNASDAQ

$22.42

Market Cap: $2.89B

10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.65 – $16.11	$5.49	-74.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.12 – $18.88	$6.65	-69.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$9.31 – $17.22	$11.67	-46.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$6.65

Market Price

$22.42

Upside / Downside

-70.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -17.3% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, 10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) has an intrinsic value of $6.65 per share (range: $1.12 – $18.88).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.9%

D&A/Revenue

6.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	613	-4.7%	-11.1%	-68	-68	41	(69)	35	-131	-126
2027	657	7.2%	-5.0%	-33	-33	44	(73)	12	-74	-65
2028	709	8.0%	1.1%	8	6	47	(78)	14	-38	-31
2029	778	9.7%	7.2%	56	44	52	(84)	18	-6	-5
2030	841	8.2%	13.3%	112	89	56	(90)	17	38	26
2031	894	6.3%	13.3%	119	94	59	(94)	14	45	29
2032	945	5.7%	13.3%	126	100	63	(98)	13	51	30
2033	992	5.0%	13.3%	132	105	66	(102)	12	56	30
2034	1,035	4.3%	13.3%	138	109	69	(105)	11	62	31
2035	1,073	3.7%	13.3%	143	113	71	(107)	10	68	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-51

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,238

PV of Terminal Value564

Enterprise Value513

(–) Net Debt-316

Equity Value830

(÷) Shares Outstanding125

Fair Value per Share$6.65

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.6%	$2	$7	$11	$15	$19
7.6%	$2	$5	$8	$11	$15
8.6%	$2	$4	$7	$9	$12
9.6%	$1	$3	$6	$8	$10
10.6%	$1	$3	$5	$7	$8

Current price: $22.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.49

Market Price

$22.42

Upside / Downside

-75.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.9%

D&A/Revenue

6.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	613	-4.7%	-11.1%	-68	-68	41	(68)	35	-130	-125
2027	657	7.2%	-5.0%	-33	-33	44	(71)	12	-72	-64
2028	709	8.0%	1.1%	8	6	47	(75)	14	-35	-29
2029	778	9.7%	7.2%	56	44	52	(80)	18	-2	-1
2030	841	8.2%	13.3%	112	89	56	(84)	17	44	30

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-188

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)808

PV of Terminal Value557

Enterprise Value369

(–) Net Debt-316

Equity Value685

(÷) Shares Outstanding125

Fair Value per Share$5.49

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.6%	$1	$5	$9	$12	$16
7.6%	$1	$4	$7	$10	$13
8.6%	$1	$3	$5	$8	$10
9.6%	$1	$3	$5	$7	$9
10.6%	$1	$2	$4	$6	$7

Current price: $22.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$11.67

Market Price

$22.42

Upside / Downside

-47.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), 10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) has a fair value of $11.67 based on 9 comparable companies in the Medical - Healthcare Information Services industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
10x Genomics, Inc.TXG	2,797	3.9x	4.0x
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN	2,435	1.7x	2.0x
Omnicell, Inc.OMCL	1,550	1.3x	1.4x
Nuvation Bio Inc.NUVB	1,542	22.1x	7.2x
Progyny, Inc.PGNY	1,374	1.0x	0.9x
Teladoc Health, Inc.TDOC	949	0.5x	0.5x
Janux Therapeutics, Inc.JANX	909	87.9x	86.8x
Certara, Inc.CERT	870	1.7x	1.7x
Schrödinger, Inc.SDGR	850	2.8x	2.9x
Omada HealthOMDA	741	2.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		1.7x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		643	613
= Enterprise Value		1,071	1,209
(-) Net Debt		-316	-316
Equity Value		1,387	1,525
(/) Outstanding shares		125	125
Fair Price		$11	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$11.67

-47.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.65 – $16.11

$5.49

-74.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.12 – $18.88

$6.65

-69.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$9.31 – $17.22

$11.67

-46.7%

DCF Analysis

10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$6.65

Market Price

$22.42

Upside / Downside

-70.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

11.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.9%

D&A/Revenue

6.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	613	-4.7%	-11.1%	-68	-68	41	(69)	35	-131	-126
2027	657	7.2%	-5.0%	-33	-33	44	(73)	12	-74	-65
2028	709	8.0%	1.1%	8	6	47	(78)	14	-38	-31
2029	778	9.7%	7.2%	56	44	52	(84)	18	-6	-5
2030	841	8.2%	13.3%	112	89	56	(90)	17	38	26
2031	894	6.3%	13.3%	119	94	59	(94)	14	45	29
2032	945	5.7%	13.3%	126	100	63	(98)	13	51	30
2033	992	5.0%	13.3%	132	105	66	(102)	12	56	30
2034	1,035	4.3%	13.3%	138	109	69	(105)	11	62	31
2035	1,073	3.7%	13.3%	143	113	71	(107)	10	68	31

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-51

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,238

PV of Terminal Value564

Enterprise Value513

(–) Net Debt-316

Equity Value830

(÷) Shares Outstanding125

Fair Value per Share$6.65

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.6%	$2	$7	$11	$15	$19
7.6%	$2	$5	$8	$11	$15
8.6%	$2	$4	$7	$9	$12
9.6%	$1	$3	$6	$8	$10
10.6%	$1	$3	$5	$7	$8

Current price: $22.42. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$11.67

Market Price

$22.42

Upside / Downside

-47.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Healthcare Information Services

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
10x Genomics, Inc.TXG	2,797	3.9x	4.0x
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN	2,435	1.7x	2.0x
Omnicell, Inc.OMCL	1,550	1.3x	1.4x
Nuvation Bio Inc.NUVB	1,542	22.1x	7.2x
Progyny, Inc.PGNY	1,374	1.0x	0.9x
Teladoc Health, Inc.TDOC	949	0.5x	0.5x
Janux Therapeutics, Inc.JANX	909	87.9x	86.8x
Certara, Inc.CERT	870	1.7x	1.7x
Schrödinger, Inc.SDGR	850	2.8x	2.9x
Omada HealthOMDA	741	2.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		1.7x	2.0x
(*) Revenue		643	613
= Enterprise Value		1,071	1,209
(-) Net Debt		-316	-316
Equity Value		1,387	1,525
(/) Outstanding shares		125	125
Fair Price		$11	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$11.67

-47.9%