Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Top Ships Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.8% to 9.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 19, DIO 8). At a 9.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (165% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $56.87 per share, suggesting TOPS is undervalued by 3149.6% at the current price of $1.75.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 |
| (−) Net Interest | 22 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 33 |
| (+) D&A | 91 | 108 | 131 | 137 | 192 | 197 |
| EBITDA | 122 | 143 | 169 | 179 | 237 | 243 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 209 | 228 | 249 | 273 | 298 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -85 | -85 | -81 | -94 | -61 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 1,293 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.07% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -81 | -75 | -65 | -69 | -41 | 838 |
| Enterprise Value | 506 | |||||
| Projection Period | -332 | -65.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 838 | 165.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 244 | |||||
| Equity Value | 263 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 5M | |||||
| Fair Price | $57 | +3144.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 1.3x | 3.3x | 5.3x | 7.3x | 9.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $0 | $0 | $71 | $146 | $221 |
| 8.1% | $0 | $0 | $64 | $135 | $207 |
| 9.1% | $0 | $0 | $57 | $125 | $193 |
| 10.1% | $0 | $0 | $50 | $115 | $180 |
| 11.1% | $0 | $0 | $44 | $106 | $168 |
Current price: $1.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Top Ships Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.8% to 4.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2, DPO 19, DIO 8). At a 9.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (165% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.3x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $69.29 per share, suggesting TOPS is undervalued by 3859.4% at the current price of $1.75.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| (−) Net Interest | 22 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 44 |
| (+) D&A | 91 | 108 | 131 | 137 | 192 | 251 | 274 | 298 | 322 | 344 | 353 |
| EBITDA | 122 | 143 | 169 | 179 | 237 | 301 | 327 | 354 | 381 | 406 | 416 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 209 | 228 | 249 | 273 | 298 | 323 | 346 | 368 | 387 | 402 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -85 | -85 | -81 | -94 | -61 | -22 | -19 | -14 | -6 | 3 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 5.3x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 2,212 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.07% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -81 | -75 | -65 | -69 | -41 | -14 | -11 | -7 | -3 | 1 | 929 |
| Enterprise Value | 564 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -365 | -64.7% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 929 | 164.7% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 244 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 320 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 5M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $69 | +3853.2% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 1.3x | 3.3x | 5.3x | 7.3x | 9.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $0 | $15 | $106 | $197 | $288 |
| 8.1% | $0 | $4 | $87 | $169 | $252 |
| 9.1% | $0 | $0 | $69 | $145 | $220 |
| 10.1% | $0 | $0 | $54 | $123 | $191 |
| 11.1% | $0 | $0 | $40 | $102 | $165 |
Current price: $1.75. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Top Ships Inc. (TOPS) has a fair value of $31.14 based on 5 comparable companies in the Marine Shipping industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top Ships Inc.TOPS | 8 | 1.6x | 0.1x |
| Pyxis Tankers Inc. | 45 | 23.2x | 3.4x |
| Euroholdings Ltd. | 24 | 1.6x | — |
| Performance Shipping Inc. | 23 | 1.4x | 1.8x |
| Castor Maritime Inc. | 17 | 4.9x | — |
| Intercont (Cayman) Limited Ordinary shares | 2 | 14.2x | — |
| Industry Median | 4.9x | 2.6x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 5 | 78 | |
| Equity Value | 24 | 264 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 5 | 5 | |
| Fair Price | $5 | $57 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Top Ships Inc. (TOPS) has a fair value of $0.24 based on 6 comparable companies in the Marine Shipping industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top Ships Inc.TOPS | 8 | 5.0x | 7.7x |
| Pyxis Tankers Inc. | 45 | 6.9x | 6.9x |
| Globus Maritime Limited | 44 | 7.5x | 10.6x |
| Vantage Corp | 24 | 3.8x | — |
| Euroholdings Ltd. | 24 | 8.5x | — |
| Performance Shipping Inc. | 23 | 0.5x | 0.3x |
| Intercont (Cayman) Limited Ordinary shares | 2 | 2.0x | — |
| Industry Median | 5.3x | 6.9x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 50 | 33 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 266 | 223 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 244 | 244 | |
| Equity Value | 23 | -20 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 5 | 5 | |
| Fair Price | $5 | $-4 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $8.72 based on TTM EPS (FY2024) of $1.09.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 0.0% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2024) | $1.09 |
| Fair Value | $8.72 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | $-22.8M | $-293.70 | — |
| FY2021 | $8.6M | $24.65 | — |
| FY2022 | $18.9M | $-36.34 | -247.4% |
| FY2023 | $6.1M | $-12.44 | — |
| FY2024 | $5.0M | $1.09 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.0%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.