The Oncology Institute, Inc.

TOI

HealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesNASDAQ

$4.07

Market Cap: $402.28M

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 11:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.06 – $2.95	$0.72	-82.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.03 – $5.63	$1.77	-56.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.25 – $1.84	$0.57	-85.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.77

Market Price

$4.07

Upside / Downside

-56.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -7.2% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) has an intrinsic value of $1.77 per share (range: $0.03 – $5.63).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(12)	32	-53	-51
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	6	13	(19)	17	-16	-14
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.0%	52	41	17	(28)	21	9	7
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.1%	117	92	21	(41)	26	46	34
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.2%	212	168	26	(59)	33	102	69
2031	1,958	21.7%	13.2%	258	204	32	(81)	35	120	75
2032	2,309	18.0%	13.2%	305	241	38	(106)	35	137	78
2033	2,638	14.2%	13.2%	348	275	43	(134)	33	151	79
2034	2,914	10.5%	13.2%	384	304	48	(161)	28	162	78
2035	3,111	6.7%	13.2%	410	324	51	(187)	20	169	74

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)430

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,894

PV of Terminal Value1,276

Enterprise Value1,706

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value1,635

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$1.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.0%	$0	$2	$3	$4	$6
8.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
10.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
11.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $4.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.72

Market Price

$4.07

Upside / Downside

-82.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(15)	32	-56	-54
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	6	13	(26)	17	-23	-20
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.0%	52	41	17	(42)	21	-6	-5
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.1%	117	92	21	(65)	26	22	16
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.2%	212	168	26	(97)	33	65	44

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-19

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,109

PV of Terminal Value752

Enterprise Value733

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value663

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$0.72

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
8.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
9.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
10.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
11.0%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.57

Market Price

$4.07

Upside / Downside

-85.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) has a fair value of $0.57 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	3,760	7.6x	10.6x
Agilon Health, Inc.AGL	905	0.1x	0.1x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	765	8.4x	11.6x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	706	1.1x	1.1x
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.SNDA	661	3.5x	5.1x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	457	2.3x	2.0x
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc.CCRN	426	0.3x	0.3x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	419	1.7x	1.6x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	418	8.8x	5.1x
Auna S.A.AUNA	375	0.9x	0.8x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	124	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		503	361
= Enterprise Value		716	482
(-) Net Debt		70	70
Equity Value		645	412
(/) Outstanding shares		924	924
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.57

-85.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.06 – $2.95

$0.72

-82.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.03 – $5.63

$1.77

-56.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.25 – $1.84

$0.57

-85.9%

DCF Analysis

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.77

Market Price

$4.07

Upside / Downside

-56.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(12)	32	-53	-51
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	6	13	(19)	17	-16	-14
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.0%	52	41	17	(28)	21	9	7
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.1%	117	92	21	(41)	26	46	34
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.2%	212	168	26	(59)	33	102	69
2031	1,958	21.7%	13.2%	258	204	32	(81)	35	120	75
2032	2,309	18.0%	13.2%	305	241	38	(106)	35	137	78
2033	2,638	14.2%	13.2%	348	275	43	(134)	33	151	79
2034	2,914	10.5%	13.2%	384	304	48	(161)	28	162	78
2035	3,111	6.7%	13.2%	410	324	51	(187)	20	169	74

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)430

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,894

PV of Terminal Value1,276

Enterprise Value1,706

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value1,635

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$1.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.0%	$0	$2	$3	$4	$6
8.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
10.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
11.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $4.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.57

Market Price

$4.07

Upside / Downside

-85.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	3,760	7.6x	10.6x
Agilon Health, Inc.AGL	905	0.1x	0.1x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	765	8.4x	11.6x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	706	1.1x	1.1x
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.SNDA	661	3.5x	5.1x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	457	2.3x	2.0x
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc.CCRN	426	0.3x	0.3x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	419	1.7x	1.6x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	418	8.8x	5.1x
Auna S.A.AUNA	375	0.9x	0.8x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	124	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		503	361
= Enterprise Value		716	482
(-) Net Debt		70	70
Equity Value		645	412
(/) Outstanding shares		924	924
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.57

-85.9%