Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.

TMCI

HealthcareMedical - DevicesNASDAQ

$2.53

Market Cap: $164.13M

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.13 – $13.04	$3.19	+121.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.15 – $10.18	$5.19	+260.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.19

Market Price

$2.53

Upside / Downside

+26.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -25.5% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.4%, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) has an intrinsic value of $3.19 per share (range: $0.13 – $13.04).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-25.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

6.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	206	-3.3%	-17.7%	-36	-36	6	(13)	-9	-34	-33
2027	223	8.2%	-9.9%	-22	-22	6	(14)	5	-35	-30
2028	225	1.1%	-2.2%	-5	-5	6	(14)	1	-13	-11
2029	276	22.5%	5.6%	15	12	8	(17)	15	-12	-9
2030	338	22.5%	13.3%	45	36	9	(21)	19	6	4
2031	403	19.3%	13.3%	54	42	11	(25)	20	10	6
2032	467	16.0%	13.3%	62	49	13	(28)	19	14	8
2033	527	12.8%	13.3%	70	56	15	(32)	18	20	10
2034	577	9.5%	13.3%	77	61	16	(35)	15	27	13
2035	613	6.3%	13.3%	82	65	17	(37)	11	34	15

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-28

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)547

PV of Terminal Value233

Enterprise Value205

(–) Net Debt3

Equity Value202

(÷) Shares Outstanding63

Fair Value per Share$3.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.4%	$-1	$2	$6	$10	$13
8.4%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$10
9.4%	$-1	$1	$3	$6	$8
10.4%	$-2	$0	$2	$4	$6
11.4%	$-2	$0	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $2.53. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 30.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.19

Market Price

$2.53

Upside / Downside

+105.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) has a fair value of $5.19 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	160	0.8x	0.8x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	709	1.1x	1.1x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	684	7.5x	10.4x
Bioventus Inc.BVS	608	1.5x	1.4x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	403	1.8x	1.6x
Standard BioTools Inc.LAB	347	3.0x	1.5x
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	317	0.8x	0.9x
RxSight, Inc.RXST	290	2.1x	2.0x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	271	1.3x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		213	208
= Enterprise Value		357	307
(-) Net Debt		3	3
Equity Value		353	303
(/) Outstanding shares		63	63
Fair Price		$6	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.19

+105.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.13 – $13.04

$3.19

+121.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.15 – $10.18

$5.19

+260.5%

DCF Analysis

Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.19

Market Price

$2.53

Upside / Downside

+26.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-25.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

6.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	206	-3.3%	-17.7%	-36	-36	6	(13)	-9	-34	-33
2027	223	8.2%	-9.9%	-22	-22	6	(14)	5	-35	-30
2028	225	1.1%	-2.2%	-5	-5	6	(14)	1	-13	-11
2029	276	22.5%	5.6%	15	12	8	(17)	15	-12	-9
2030	338	22.5%	13.3%	45	36	9	(21)	19	6	4
2031	403	19.3%	13.3%	54	42	11	(25)	20	10	6
2032	467	16.0%	13.3%	62	49	13	(28)	19	14	8
2033	527	12.8%	13.3%	70	56	15	(32)	18	20	10
2034	577	9.5%	13.3%	77	61	16	(35)	15	27	13
2035	613	6.3%	13.3%	82	65	17	(37)	11	34	15

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-28

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)547

PV of Terminal Value233

Enterprise Value205

(–) Net Debt3

Equity Value202

(÷) Shares Outstanding63

Fair Value per Share$3.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.4%	$-1	$2	$6	$10	$13
8.4%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$10
9.4%	$-1	$1	$3	$6	$8
10.4%	$-2	$0	$2	$4	$6
11.4%	$-2	$0	$2	$3	$5

Current price: $2.53. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 30.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.19

Market Price

$2.53

Upside / Downside

+105.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	160	0.8x	0.8x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	709	1.1x	1.1x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	684	7.5x	10.4x
Bioventus Inc.BVS	608	1.5x	1.4x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	403	1.8x	1.6x
Standard BioTools Inc.LAB	347	3.0x	1.5x
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	317	0.8x	0.9x
RxSight, Inc.RXST	290	2.1x	2.0x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	271	1.3x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		213	208
= Enterprise Value		357	307
(-) Net Debt		3	3
Equity Value		353	303
(/) Outstanding shares		63	63
Fair Price		$6	$5

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.19

+105.2%