Tilly's, Inc.

TLYS

Consumer CyclicalApparel - RetailNYSE

$3.62

Market Cap: $108.94M

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.50 – $37.50	$3.18	-27.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.32 – $26.22	$1.21	-72.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.44 – $9.33	$3.92	-11.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.21

Market Price

$3.62

Upside / Downside

-66.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -3.5% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.3%, Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) has an intrinsic value of $1.21 per share (range: $0.32 – $26.22).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

25.5%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	547	-1.1%	-1.3%	-7	-7	11	(12)	-0	-7	-7
2027	568	3.8%	1.0%	6	4	12	(15)	2	-0	-0
2028	578	1.7%	3.2%	19	14	12	(17)	1	8	7
2029	531	-8.1%	5.5%	29	22	11	(18)	-4	19	14
2030	488	-8.1%	7.7%	38	28	10	(19)	-4	23	17
2031	458	-6.2%	7.7%	35	26	10	(20)	-3	19	13
2032	438	-4.4%	7.7%	34	25	9	(21)	-2	15	10
2033	427	-2.5%	7.7%	33	25	9	(22)	-1	12	7
2034	424	-0.7%	7.7%	33	24	9	(24)	-0	10	5
2035	428	1.1%	7.7%	33	25	9	(26)	0	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)70

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)178

PV of Terminal Value91

Enterprise Value161

(–) Net Debt124

Equity Value37

(÷) Shares Outstanding30

Fair Value per Share$1.21

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.3%	$-6	$-4	$5	$16	$26
6.3%	$-6	$-4	$3	$10	$17
7.3%	$-6	$-4	$1	$7	$13
8.3%	$-6	$-4	$0	$5	$10
9.3%	$-6	$-4	$-0	$4	$8

Current price: $3.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.18

Market Price

$3.62

Upside / Downside

-12.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

25.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	547	-1.1%	-1.3%	-7	-7	11	(14)	-0	-9	-9
2027	568	3.8%	1.0%	6	4	12	(19)	2	-5	-5
2028	578	1.7%	3.2%	19	14	12	(25)	1	0	0
2029	531	-8.1%	5.5%	29	22	11	(27)	-4	9	7
2030	488	-8.1%	7.7%	38	28	10	(29)	-4	13	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)3

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)299

PV of Terminal Value217

Enterprise Value220

(–) Net Debt124

Equity Value96

(÷) Shares Outstanding30

Fair Value per Share$3.18

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.3%	$-6	$-3	$10	$24	$38
6.3%	$-6	$-4	$6	$15	$25
7.3%	$-6	$-4	$3	$10	$18
8.3%	$-6	$-4	$2	$7	$13
9.3%	$-6	$-4	$1	$5	$10

Current price: $3.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.92

Market Price

$3.62

Upside / Downside

+8.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) has a fair value of $3.92 based on 8 comparable companies in the Apparel - Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Apparel - Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tilly's, Inc.TLYS	110	0.4x	0.4x
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.CVGI	156	0.4x	0.3x
Vera Bradley, Inc.VRA	98	0.6x	0.3x
CarParts.com, Inc.PRTS	57	0.2x	0.1x
Natural Health Trends Corp.NHTC	33	0.7x	—
Destination XL Group, Inc.DXLG	30	0.6x	0.6x
Allbirds, Inc.BIRD	21	0.2x	0.2x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	18	0.5x	0.4x
Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.FRSX	10	13.1x	7.0x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.3x
(*) Revenue		554	615
= Enterprise Value		283	202
(-) Net Debt		124	124
Equity Value		159	78
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$5	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.92

+8.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.50 – $37.50

$3.18

-27.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.32 – $26.22

$1.21

-72.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.44 – $9.33

$3.92

-11.0%

DCF Analysis

Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.21

Market Price

$3.62

Upside / Downside

-66.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

25.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	547	-1.1%	-1.3%	-7	-7	11	(12)	-0	-7	-7
2027	568	3.8%	1.0%	6	4	12	(15)	2	-0	-0
2028	578	1.7%	3.2%	19	14	12	(17)	1	8	7
2029	531	-8.1%	5.5%	29	22	11	(18)	-4	19	14
2030	488	-8.1%	7.7%	38	28	10	(19)	-4	23	17
2031	458	-6.2%	7.7%	35	26	10	(20)	-3	19	13
2032	438	-4.4%	7.7%	34	25	9	(21)	-2	15	10
2033	427	-2.5%	7.7%	33	25	9	(22)	-1	12	7
2034	424	-0.7%	7.7%	33	24	9	(24)	-0	10	5
2035	428	1.1%	7.7%	33	25	9	(26)	0	8	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)70

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)178

PV of Terminal Value91

Enterprise Value161

(–) Net Debt124

Equity Value37

(÷) Shares Outstanding30

Fair Value per Share$1.21

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.3%	$-6	$-4	$5	$16	$26
6.3%	$-6	$-4	$3	$10	$17
7.3%	$-6	$-4	$1	$7	$13
8.3%	$-6	$-4	$0	$5	$10
9.3%	$-6	$-4	$-0	$4	$8

Current price: $3.62. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.92

Market Price

$3.62

Upside / Downside

+8.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) has a fair value of $3.92 based on 8 comparable companies in the Apparel - Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Apparel - Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tilly's, Inc.TLYS	110	0.4x	0.4x
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.CVGI	156	0.4x	0.3x
Vera Bradley, Inc.VRA	98	0.6x	0.3x
CarParts.com, Inc.PRTS	57	0.2x	0.1x
Natural Health Trends Corp.NHTC	33	0.7x	—
Destination XL Group, Inc.DXLG	30	0.6x	0.6x
Allbirds, Inc.BIRD	21	0.2x	0.2x
QVC Group Inc.QVCGA	18	0.5x	0.4x
Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.FRSX	10	13.1x	7.0x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.3x
(*) Revenue		554	615
= Enterprise Value		283	202
(-) Net Debt		124	124
Equity Value		159	78
(/) Outstanding shares		30	30
Fair Price		$5	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.92

+8.2%