Titan Machinery Inc.

TITN

IndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionNASDAQ

$19.77

Market Cap: $461.72M

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 16, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.04 – $244.42	$16.27	-16.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.40 – $261.17	$14.17	-27.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$28.88 – $98.58	$50.76	+161.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$14.17

Market Price

$19.77

Upside / Downside

-28.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -0.1% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.2%, Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) has an intrinsic value of $14.17 per share (range: $1.40 – $261.17).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

24.7%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2027	2,094	-13.7%	2.0%	41	31	27	(46)	-163	175	169
2028	2,172	3.8%	4.0%	88	66	28	(57)	31	6	6
2029	2,225	2.4%	6.1%	136	103	29	(68)	21	43	36
2030	2,281	2.5%	8.2%	187	141	30	(79)	22	69	54
2031	2,334	2.3%	10.3%	240	181	31	(91)	21	99	73
2032	2,523	8.1%	10.3%	260	195	33	(109)	75	44	30
2033	2,702	7.1%	10.3%	278	209	35	(128)	71	46	29
2034	2,866	6.1%	10.3%	295	222	38	(148)	65	46	28
2035	3,010	5.0%	10.3%	310	233	39	(168)	57	47	26
2036	3,131	4.0%	10.3%	322	242	41	(188)	48	47	25

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)475

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,167

PV of Terminal Value603

Enterprise Value1,078

(–) Net Debt756

Equity Value323

(÷) Shares Outstanding23

Fair Value per Share$14.17

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.2%	$-42	$-26	$50	$155	$261
6.2%	$-41	$-26	$26	$98	$169
7.2%	$-40	$-26	$14	$67	$121
8.2%	$-39	$-26	$7	$49	$91
9.2%	$-38	$-26	$1	$36	$71

Current price: $19.77. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 39.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$16.27

Market Price

$19.77

Upside / Downside

-17.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

24.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2027	2,094	-13.7%	2.0%	41	31	27	(55)	-163	167	161
2028	2,172	3.8%	4.0%	88	66	28	(76)	31	-12	-11
2029	2,225	2.4%	6.1%	136	103	29	(96)	21	15	12
2030	2,281	2.5%	8.2%	187	141	30	(118)	22	31	24
2031	2,334	2.3%	10.3%	240	181	31	(140)	21	50	37

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)223

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,234

PV of Terminal Value903

Enterprise Value1,126

(–) Net Debt756

Equity Value371

(÷) Shares Outstanding23

Fair Value per Share$16.27

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.2%	$-35	$-29	$60	$152	$244
6.2%	$-34	$-29	$31	$94	$156
7.2%	$-34	$-29	$16	$63	$110
8.2%	$-34	$-29	$7	$45	$82
9.2%	$-34	$-29	$1	$32	$63

Current price: $19.77. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 39.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$50.76

Market Price

$19.77

Upside / Downside

+156.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) has a fair value of $50.76 based on 8 comparable companies in the Industrial - Distribution industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Titan Machinery Inc.TITN	450	0.5x	0.6x
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.BW	1,943	3.8x	2.6x
Costamare Bulkers Holdings LtdCMDB	413	0.6x	—
Magnera Corp.MAGN	369	0.6x	1.3x
Wabash National CorporationWNC	368	0.5x	0.3x
Luxfer Holdings PLCLXFR	340	1.0x	1.0x
Matrix Service CompanyMTRX	337	0.2x	0.1x
EVI Industries, Inc.EVI	267	0.8x	0.8x
flyExclusive, Inc.FLYX	251	1.2x	1.4x
Industry Median		0.7x	1.0x
(*) Revenue		2,427	2,094
= Enterprise Value		1,792	2,031
(-) Net Debt		756	756
Equity Value		1,037	1,276
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$46	$56

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$50.76

+156.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.04 – $244.42

$16.27

-16.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.40 – $261.17

$14.17

-27.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$28.88 – $98.58

$50.76

+161.5%

DCF Analysis

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$14.17

Market Price

$19.77

Upside / Downside

-28.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

24.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2027	2,094	-13.7%	2.0%	41	31	27	(46)	-163	175	169
2028	2,172	3.8%	4.0%	88	66	28	(57)	31	6	6
2029	2,225	2.4%	6.1%	136	103	29	(68)	21	43	36
2030	2,281	2.5%	8.2%	187	141	30	(79)	22	69	54
2031	2,334	2.3%	10.3%	240	181	31	(91)	21	99	73
2032	2,523	8.1%	10.3%	260	195	33	(109)	75	44	30
2033	2,702	7.1%	10.3%	278	209	35	(128)	71	46	29
2034	2,866	6.1%	10.3%	295	222	38	(148)	65	46	28
2035	3,010	5.0%	10.3%	310	233	39	(168)	57	47	26
2036	3,131	4.0%	10.3%	322	242	41	(188)	48	47	25

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)475

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,167

PV of Terminal Value603

Enterprise Value1,078

(–) Net Debt756

Equity Value323

(÷) Shares Outstanding23

Fair Value per Share$14.17

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.2%	$-42	$-26	$50	$155	$261
6.2%	$-41	$-26	$26	$98	$169
7.2%	$-40	$-26	$14	$67	$121
8.2%	$-39	$-26	$7	$49	$91
9.2%	$-38	$-26	$1	$36	$71

Current price: $19.77. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 39.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$50.76

Market Price

$19.77

Upside / Downside

+156.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Industrial - Distribution

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Titan Machinery Inc.TITN	450	0.5x	0.6x
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.BW	1,943	3.8x	2.6x
Costamare Bulkers Holdings LtdCMDB	413	0.6x	—
Magnera Corp.MAGN	369	0.6x	1.3x
Wabash National CorporationWNC	368	0.5x	0.3x
Luxfer Holdings PLCLXFR	340	1.0x	1.0x
Matrix Service CompanyMTRX	337	0.2x	0.1x
EVI Industries, Inc.EVI	267	0.8x	0.8x
flyExclusive, Inc.FLYX	251	1.2x	1.4x
Industry Median		0.7x	1.0x
(*) Revenue		2,427	2,094
= Enterprise Value		1,792	2,031
(-) Net Debt		756	756
Equity Value		1,037	1,276
(/) Outstanding shares		23	23
Fair Price		$46	$56

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$50.76

+156.7%