Smurfit Westrock Plc

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNYSE

$41.63

Market Cap: $21.83B

Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 07:53

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$18.11 – $144.39	$42.45	+2.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$32.89 – $221.08	$68.95	+65.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$95.91 – $192.71	$140.38	+237.2%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$140.52 – $326.81	$220.17	+428.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$23.57 – $40.83	$41.16	-1.1%
EV/EBITDA	$68.32 – $167.46	$133.48	+220.6%
EV/Revenue	$57.62 – $132.24	$89.17	+114.2%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$59.96 – $59.96	$59.96	+44.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$18.65 – $40.68	$27.43	-34.1%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$24.44 – $53.89	$34.76	-16.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$42.45

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+2.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 8.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 60, DPO 67, DIO 56). At a 7.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $42.45 per share, suggesting SW is fairly valued by 2.0% at the current price of $41.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.37%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,503	2,590	2,654	2,876	3,106	3,183
(−) Net Interest	569	589	604	654	707	724
(+) D&A	1,179	1,492	1,777	2,072	2,301	2,359
EBITDA	4,251	4,672	5,034	5,603	6,114	6,266

(−) Tax	754	780	799	866	935	959
(−) CapEx	2,271	2,351	2,408	2,610	2,818	2,889
(−) ΔWC	116	157	114	397	412	422
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,109	1,385	1,713	1,729	1,948	1,997

Terminal Value						40,964
WACC / Discount Rate	7.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,071	1,244	1,434	1,348	1,414	28,701

Enterprise Value	35,212
Projection Period	6,511	18.5%
Terminal Value	28,701	81.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	12,881

Equity Value	22,331
(/) Outstanding Shares	526

Fair Price	$42.45

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.4%	$64	$75	$90	$112	$144
6.4%	$45	$52	$60	$71	$85
7.4%	$33	$37	$42	$49	$57
8.4%	$25	$27	$31	$35	$40
9.4%	$18	$20	$23	$25	$29

Current price: $41.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$68.95

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+65.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 7.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 60, DPO 67, DIO 56). At a 7.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $68.95 per share, suggesting SW is undervalued by 65.6% at the current price of $41.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.37%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,503	2,590	2,654	2,876	3,106	3,932	4,792	5,615	6,313	6,800	6,970
(−) Net Interest	569	589	604	654	707	895	1,090	1,277	1,436	1,547	1,586
(+) D&A	1,179	1,492	1,777	2,072	2,301	2,492	2,751	3,151	3,688	4,312	4,420
EBITDA	4,251	4,672	5,034	5,603	6,114	7,318	8,634	10,043	11,437	12,660	12,976

(−) Tax	754	780	799	866	935	1,184	1,443	1,691	1,901	2,048	2,099
(−) CapEx	2,271	2,351	2,408	2,610	2,818	3,568	4,349	5,095	5,729	6,171	6,326
(−) ΔWC	116	157	114	397	412	1,479	1,540	1,472	1,250	872	894
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,109	1,385	1,713	1,729	1,948	1,087	1,301	1,785	2,557	3,568	3,657

Terminal Value											75,021
WACC / Discount Rate	7.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,071	1,244	1,434	1,348	1,414	735	820	1,047	1,397	1,815	36,827

Enterprise Value	49,151
Projection Period	12,324	25.1%
Terminal Value	36,827	74.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	12,881

Equity Value	36,270
(/) Outstanding Shares	526

Fair Price	$68.95

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.4%	$108	$123	$145	$175	$221
6.4%	$77	$86	$97	$111	$130
7.4%	$57	$62	$69	$77	$87
8.4%	$43	$47	$51	$56	$62
9.4%	$33	$35	$38	$41	$45

Current price: $41.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$140.39

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+237.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 8.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 60, DPO 67, DIO 56). At a 7.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $140.38 per share, suggesting SW is undervalued by 237.2% at the current price of $41.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.37%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

18.27x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,503	2,590	2,654	2,876	3,106	3,183
(−) Net Interest	569	589	604	654	707	724
(+) D&A	1,179	1,492	1,777	2,072	2,301	2,359
EBITDA	4,251	4,672	5,034	5,603	6,114	6,266

(−) Tax	754	780	799	866	935	—
(−) CapEx	2,271	2,351	2,408	2,610	2,818	—
(−) ΔWC	116	157	114	397	412	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,109	1,385	1,713	1,729	1,948	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						18.3x
Terminal Value						114,488
WACC / Discount Rate	7.37%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,071	1,244	1,434	1,348	1,414	80,214

Enterprise Value	86,725
Projection Period	6,511	7.5%
Terminal Value	80,214	92.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	12,881
Equity Value	73,844
(÷) Outstanding Shares	526M
Fair Price	$140	+237.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	14.3x	16.3x	18.3x	20.3x	22.3x
5.4%	$119	$138	$156	$174	$193
6.4%	$113	$130	$148	$165	$183
7.4%	$107	$124	$140	$157	$174
8.4%	$101	$117	$133	$149	$165
9.4%	$96	$111	$126	$142	$157

Current price: $41.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$220.19

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+428.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Smurfit Westrock Plc's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.9% to 7.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 60, DPO 67, DIO 56). At a 7.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.3x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $220.17 per share, suggesting SW is undervalued by 428.9% at the current price of $41.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.37%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

18.27x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	2,503	2,590	2,654	2,876	3,106	3,932	4,792	5,615	6,313	6,800	6,970
(−) Net Interest	569	589	604	654	707	895	1,090	1,277	1,436	1,547	1,586
(+) D&A	1,179	1,492	1,777	2,072	2,301	2,492	2,751	3,151	3,688	4,312	4,420
EBITDA	4,251	4,672	5,034	5,603	6,114	7,318	8,634	10,043	11,437	12,660	12,976

(−) Tax	754	780	799	866	935	1,184	1,443	1,691	1,901	2,048	—
(−) CapEx	2,271	2,351	2,408	2,610	2,818	3,568	4,349	5,095	5,729	6,171	—
(−) ΔWC	116	157	114	397	412	1,479	1,540	1,472	1,250	872	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,109	1,385	1,713	1,729	1,948	1,087	1,301	1,785	2,557	3,568	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											18.3x
Terminal Value											237,072
WACC / Discount Rate	7.37%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,071	1,244	1,434	1,348	1,414	735	820	1,047	1,397	1,815	116,376

Enterprise Value	128,700
Projection Period	12,324	9.6%
Terminal Value	116,376	90.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	12,881
Equity Value	115,819
(÷) Outstanding Shares	526M
Fair Price	$220	+428.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	14.3x	16.3x	18.3x	20.3x	22.3x
5.4%	$210	$239	$268	$298	$327
6.4%	$190	$216	$243	$270	$296
7.4%	$172	$196	$220	$244	$269
8.4%	$155	$177	$200	$222	$244
9.4%	$141	$161	$181	$201	$221

Current price: $41.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$41.16

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

-1.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) has a fair value of $41.16 based on 8 comparable companies in the Packaging & Containers industry.

P/E Valuation — Packaging & Containers

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,897	31.3x	17.4x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	58.7x	47.5x
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	22,311	30.7x	26.4x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,440	30.5x	21.7x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	26.0x	22.5x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	25.0x	11.0x
NVR, Inc.NVR	16,596	13.7x	12.0x
Ball CorporationBALL	15,581	17.7x	18.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	9.9x	10.1x
Industry Median		25.5x	20.2x
(*) Profit after tax		699	1,261
Equity Value		17,823	25,478
(/) Outstanding shares		526	526
Fair Price		$34	$48

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$41.16

-1.1%

Fair Value

$133.48

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+220.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) has a fair value of $133.48 based on 9 comparable companies in the Packaging & Containers industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Packaging & Containers

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,897	7.3x	7.1x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	28.7x	26.6x
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	22,311	21.1x	19.9x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,440	18.3x	16.2x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	13.5x	13.4x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	18.5x	18.4x
NVR, Inc.NVR	16,596	8.8x	8.7x
Ball CorporationBALL	15,581	10.2x	11.3x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	5.6x	5.7x
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,569	29.7x	29.7x
Industry Median		18.3x	16.2x
(*) EBITDA		4,774	4,867
= Enterprise Value		87,213	78,966
(-) Net Debt		12,881	12,881
Equity Value		74,332	66,085
(/) Outstanding shares		526	526
Fair Price		$141	$126

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$133.48

+220.6%

Fair Value

$89.17

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+114.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) has a fair value of $89.17 based on 10 comparable companies in the Packaging & Containers industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Packaging & Containers

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Smurfit Westrock PlcSW	21,897	1.1x	1.1x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	2.2x	2.0x
InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG	22,311	5.0x	4.7x
Ralph Lauren CorporationRL	21,440	3.1x	2.8x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	2.6x	2.6x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	2.2x	2.2x
International Paper CompanyIP	17,489	1.1x	1.1x
NVR, Inc.NVR	16,596	1.5x	1.5x
Ball CorporationBALL	15,581	1.6x	1.8x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	1.4x	1.4x
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,569	0.9x	0.9x
Industry Median		1.9x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		31,179	31,787
= Enterprise Value		59,056	60,508
(-) Net Debt		12,881	12,881
Equity Value		46,175	47,627
(/) Outstanding shares		526	526
Fair Price		$88	$91

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$89.17

+114.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$59.96

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

+44.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 3.5% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $59.96 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.40. The current PEG ratio is 0.43.

PEG Ratio

0.43Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 17.4 ÷ (37.0% + 3.5%) = 0.43

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	37.0%
Dividend Yield	+3.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.40
Fair Value	$59.96

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.33	—	—
FY2026E	$2.40	+80.3%	7
FY2027E	$3.14	+31.1%	8
FY2028E	$3.59	+14.1%	6
FY2029E	$4.69	+30.7%	7

4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 37.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$704.6M	$2.71	—
FY2022	$965.7M	$3.80	+40.2%
FY2023	$747.3M	$2.87	-24.5%
FY2024	$307.9M	$0.79	-72.5%
FY2025	$699.0M	$1.33	+68.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -16.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$27.43

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

-34.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.4% and normalized earnings of $2.0B, the company has a fair value of $27.43 per share. The EPV range is $18.65 – $40.68 based on WACC sensitivity (5.9% – 8.9%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	2,014	2,014	2,014
(/) WACC	8.9%	7.4%	5.9%
Enterprise Value	22,692	27,308	34,280
(-) Net debt	12,881	12,881	12,881
Equity Value	9,811	14,427	21,399
(/) Outstanding shares	526	526	526
Fair Price	$18.65	$27.43	$40.68

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$34.76

Market Price

$41.63

Upside / Downside

-16.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.2% and projected dividend growth of 13.3%, the fair value is $34.76 per share. The DDM range is $24.44 – $53.89 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.46

Dividend Yield

3.51%

Payout Ratio

109.6%

Dividend Coverage

0.91x

FCF Payout Ratio75.0%

DPS CAGR (4Y)1.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.46	109.6%	-12.8%
2024	$1.67	211.1%	+11.1%
2023	$1.50	52.3%	+12.5%
2022	$1.34	36.1%	-2.6%
2021	$1.37	50.7%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.65	13.3%	0.9156	$1.51
2027	$1.87	13.3%	0.8383	$1.57
2028	$2.12	13.3%	0.7675	$1.62
2029	$2.40	13.3%	0.7027	$1.68
2030	$2.71	13.3%	0.6433	$1.75
Terminal Value	$2.78 DPS	2.5%		$26.63

PV of Projected Dividends$8.13

PV of Terminal Value$26.63

Fair Value per Share$34.76

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	11.3%	12.3%	13.3%	14.3%	15.0%
7.2%	$46	$48	$50	$52	$54
8.2%	$38	$39	$41	$43	$44
9.2%	$32	$33	$35	$36	$37
10.2%	$28	$29	$30	$31	$32
11.2%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$28

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.