SoundThinking, Inc.

SSTI

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$7.04

Market Cap: $91.20M

SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 18:59

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.06 – $21.44	$0.06	-99.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.05 – $41.04	$8.27	+17.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.43 – $124.66	$9.14	+29.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.27

Market Price

$7.04

Upside / Downside

+17.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -7.8% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) has an intrinsic value of $8.27 per share (range: $0.05 – $41.04).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

13.3%

D&A/Revenue

8.9%

Tax Rate

15.4%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	110	5.3%	-4.2%	-5	-5	10	(9)	5	-9	-9
2027	117	6.4%	-0.6%	-1	-1	10	(10)	2	-3	-2
2028	166	41.9%	3.0%	5	4	15	(16)	13	-10	-8
2029	191	15.7%	6.6%	13	11	17	(19)	7	1	1
2030	221	15.7%	10.2%	23	19	20	(23)	8	7	5
2031	251	13.6%	10.2%	26	22	22	(28)	8	8	5
2032	280	11.4%	10.2%	29	24	25	(33)	8	9	5
2033	306	9.3%	10.2%	31	27	27	(38)	7	9	5
2034	329	7.2%	10.2%	34	28	29	(42)	6	10	5
2035	345	5.1%	10.2%	35	30	31	(46)	5	10	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)183

PV of Terminal Value84

Enterprise Value95

(–) Net Debt-11

Equity Value105

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$8.27

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-4	$1	$14	$28	$41
7.6%	$-3	$0	$11	$21	$31
8.6%	$-3	$0	$8	$16	$25
9.6%	$-3	$-0	$7	$13	$20
10.6%	$-3	$-0	$6	$11	$17

Current price: $7.04. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.06

Market Price

$7.04

Upside / Downside

-99.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

13.3%

D&A/Revenue

8.9%

Tax Rate

15.4%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	110	5.3%	-4.2%	-5	-5	10	(10)	5	-10	-9
2027	117	6.4%	-0.6%	-1	-1	10	(12)	2	-4	-3
2028	166	41.9%	3.0%	5	4	15	(18)	13	-13	-10
2029	191	15.7%	6.6%	13	11	17	(23)	7	-3	-2
2030	221	15.7%	10.2%	23	19	20	(30)	8	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-25

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)21

PV of Terminal Value15

Enterprise Value-10

(–) Net Debt-11

Equity Value1

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$0.06

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-3	$-2	$1	$11	$21
7.6%	$-3	$-2	$0	$8	$16
8.6%	$-3	$-2	$0	$6	$13
9.6%	$-3	$-2	$-0	$5	$11
10.6%	$-3	$-2	$-0	$4	$9

Current price: $7.04. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.14

Market Price

$7.04

Upside / Downside

+29.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) has a fair value of $9.14 based on 9 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
SoundThinking, Inc.SSTI	90	0.8x	0.7x
TROOPS, Inc.TROO	483	28.0x	—
QuickLogic CorporationQUIK	311	22.5x	12.8x
Roadzen, Inc.RDZN	149	3.8x	3.2x
Nerdy, Inc.NRDY	107	0.4x	0.4x
Expensify, Inc.EXFY	91	0.2x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	85	0.5x	0.7x
Wrap Technologies, Inc.WRAP	80	15.2x	91.2x
Castellum, Inc.CTM	71	1.1x	1.2x
WM Technology, Inc.MAPS	65	0.2x	0.2x
Industry Median		1.1x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		104	105
= Enterprise Value		113	98
(-) Net Debt		-11	-11
Equity Value		124	109
(/) Outstanding shares		13	13
Fair Price		$10	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.14

+29.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.06 – $21.44

$0.06

-99.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.05 – $41.04

$8.27

+17.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.43 – $124.66

$9.14

+29.8%

DCF Analysis

SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$8.27

Market Price

$7.04

Upside / Downside

+17.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.8%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

13.3%

D&A/Revenue

8.9%

Tax Rate

15.4%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	110	5.3%	-4.2%	-5	-5	10	(9)	5	-9	-9
2027	117	6.4%	-0.6%	-1	-1	10	(10)	2	-3	-2
2028	166	41.9%	3.0%	5	4	15	(16)	13	-10	-8
2029	191	15.7%	6.6%	13	11	17	(19)	7	1	1
2030	221	15.7%	10.2%	23	19	20	(23)	8	7	5
2031	251	13.6%	10.2%	26	22	22	(28)	8	8	5
2032	280	11.4%	10.2%	29	24	25	(33)	8	9	5
2033	306	9.3%	10.2%	31	27	27	(38)	7	9	5
2034	329	7.2%	10.2%	34	28	29	(42)	6	10	5
2035	345	5.1%	10.2%	35	30	31	(46)	5	10	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)183

PV of Terminal Value84

Enterprise Value95

(–) Net Debt-11

Equity Value105

(÷) Shares Outstanding13

Fair Value per Share$8.27

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-4	$1	$14	$28	$41
7.6%	$-3	$0	$11	$21	$31
8.6%	$-3	$0	$8	$16	$25
9.6%	$-3	$-0	$7	$13	$20
10.6%	$-3	$-0	$6	$11	$17

Current price: $7.04. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 27.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.14

Market Price

$7.04

Upside / Downside

+29.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI) has a fair value of $9.14 based on 9 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
SoundThinking, Inc.SSTI	90	0.8x	0.7x
TROOPS, Inc.TROO	483	28.0x	—
QuickLogic CorporationQUIK	311	22.5x	12.8x
Roadzen, Inc.RDZN	149	3.8x	3.2x
Nerdy, Inc.NRDY	107	0.4x	0.4x
Expensify, Inc.EXFY	91	0.2x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	85	0.5x	0.7x
Wrap Technologies, Inc.WRAP	80	15.2x	91.2x
Castellum, Inc.CTM	71	1.1x	1.2x
WM Technology, Inc.MAPS	65	0.2x	0.2x
Industry Median		1.1x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		104	105
= Enterprise Value		113	98
(-) Net Debt		-11	-11
Equity Value		124	109
(/) Outstanding shares		13	13
Fair Price		$10	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.14

+29.8%