Sonida Senior Living, Inc.

SNDA

HealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesNYSE

$36.96

Market Cap: $668.51M

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.93 – $107.62	$2.93	-91.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.93

Market Price

$36.96

Upside / Downside

-92.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.3% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.5%, Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) has an intrinsic value of $2.93 per share (range: $2.93 – $107.62).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

23.2%

D&A/Revenue

15.4%

Tax Rate

0.5%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	556	46.0%	-9.6%	-53	-53	86	(52)	-11	-8	-8
2027	618	11.1%	-3.8%	-24	-24	96	(67)	0	4	4
2028	397	-35.8%	1.9%	8	7	61	(49)	-1	21	17
2029	448	12.9%	7.6%	34	34	69	(62)	0	41	31
2030	506	12.9%	13.3%	67	67	78	(78)	0	67	48
2031	563	11.2%	13.3%	75	75	87	(96)	0	66	44
2032	617	9.6%	13.3%	82	82	95	(114)	0	62	39
2033	666	7.9%	13.3%	89	88	103	(134)	0	57	33
2034	707	6.3%	13.3%	94	94	109	(153)	0	50	27
2035	740	4.7%	13.3%	99	98	114	(172)	0	41	21

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)257

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)941

PV of Terminal Value474

Enterprise Value732

(–) Net Debt679

Equity Value53

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$2.93

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
5.5%	$-33	$-1	$35	$71	$108
6.5%	$-33	$-11	$14	$40	$65
7.5%	$-33	$-16	$3	$22	$41
8.5%	$-34	$-20	$-4	$11	$26
9.5%	$-34	$-22	$-10	$3	$16

Current price: $36.96. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 0.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.93 – $107.62

$2.93

-91.5%

DCF Analysis

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.93

Market Price

$36.96

Upside / Downside

-92.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

23.2%

D&A/Revenue

15.4%

Tax Rate

0.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	556	46.0%	-9.6%	-53	-53	86	(52)	-11	-8	-8
2027	618	11.1%	-3.8%	-24	-24	96	(67)	0	4	4
2028	397	-35.8%	1.9%	8	7	61	(49)	-1	21	17
2029	448	12.9%	7.6%	34	34	69	(62)	0	41	31
2030	506	12.9%	13.3%	67	67	78	(78)	0	67	48
2031	563	11.2%	13.3%	75	75	87	(96)	0	66	44
2032	617	9.6%	13.3%	82	82	95	(114)	0	62	39
2033	666	7.9%	13.3%	89	88	103	(134)	0	57	33
2034	707	6.3%	13.3%	94	94	109	(153)	0	50	27
2035	740	4.7%	13.3%	99	98	114	(172)	0	41	21

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)257

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)941

PV of Terminal Value474

Enterprise Value732

(–) Net Debt679

Equity Value53

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$2.93

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
5.5%	$-33	$-1	$35	$71	$108
6.5%	$-33	$-11	$14	$40	$65
7.5%	$-33	$-16	$3	$22	$41
8.5%	$-34	$-20	$-4	$11	$26
9.5%	$-34	$-22	$-10	$3	$16

Current price: $36.96. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 0.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.