Sagimet Biosciences Inc.

SGMT

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$7.69

Market Cap: $250.55M

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.65 – $3.01	$2.05	-60.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$3.38 – $17.97	$7.74	+50.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.69 – $6.25	$4.52	-12.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.74

Market Price

$7.69

Upside / Downside

+0.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1537.0% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.7%, Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) has an intrinsic value of $7.74 per share (range: $3.38 – $17.97).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1537.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	2	5.0%	-1226.9%	-26	-26	0	(0)	-0	-26	-25
2025	2	5.0%	-916.9%	-20	-20	0	(0)	-0	-20	-18
2026	0	-95.0%	-606.8%	-1	-1	0	(0)	0	-1	-1
2027	4	3751.4%	-296.7%	-13	-13	0	(0)	-0	-12	-9
2028	9	107.7%	13.3%	1	1	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2029	29	227.9%	13.3%	4	3	1	(2)	-2	4	3
2030	118	304.3%	13.3%	16	12	6	(9)	-8	18	10
2031	123	4.0%	13.3%	16	13	6	(9)	-0	10	5
2032	127	3.7%	13.3%	17	13	6	(10)	-0	11	5
2033	131	3.3%	13.3%	18	14	7	(10)	-0	11	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-23

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)197

PV of Terminal Value89

Enterprise Value66

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value141

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$7.74

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$6	$9	$12	$15	$18
7.7%	$5	$7	$9	$12	$14
8.7%	$4	$6	$8	$10	$11
9.7%	$4	$5	$7	$8	$9
10.7%	$3	$5	$6	$7	$8

Current price: $7.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -9.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.05

Market Price

$7.69

Upside / Downside

-73.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1537.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	2	5.0%	-1226.9%	-26	-26	(0)	-0	-26	-25
2025	2	5.0%	-916.9%	-20	-20	(0)	-0	-20	-18
2026	0	-95.0%	-606.8%	-1	-1	(0)	0	-1	-1
2027	4	3751.4%	-296.7%	-13	-13	(0)	-0	-12	-9
2028	9	107.7%	13.3%	1	1	(1)	-0	1	1

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-52

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)21

PV of Terminal Value14

Enterprise Value-38

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value37

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$2.05

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$3
7.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$3
8.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
9.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
10.7%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2

Current price: $7.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -9.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.52

Market Price

$7.69

Upside / Downside

-41.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) has a fair value of $4.52 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Sagimet Biosciences Inc.SGMT	140	32.4x	583.6x
Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.TRDA	531	19.4x	19.7x
Assembly Biosciences, Inc.ASMB	464	5.6x	6.5x
Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.FHTX	286	8.0x	7.5x
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.VYGR	237	5.1x	3.9x
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.ARCT	234	0.4x	0.7x
Humacyte, Inc.HUMA	102	57.0x	8.5x
Industry Median		6.8x	7.0x
(*) Revenue		2	0
= Enterprise Value		14	1
(-) Net Debt		-75	-75
Equity Value		89	76
(/) Outstanding shares		18	18
Fair Price		$5	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.52

-41.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.65 – $3.01

$2.05

-60.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$3.38 – $17.97

$7.74

+50.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.69 – $6.25

$4.52

-12.1%

DCF Analysis

Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.74

Market Price

$7.69

Upside / Downside

+0.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1537.0%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2024	2	5.0%	-1226.9%	-26	-26	0	(0)	-0	-26	-25
2025	2	5.0%	-916.9%	-20	-20	0	(0)	-0	-20	-18
2026	0	-95.0%	-606.8%	-1	-1	0	(0)	0	-1	-1
2027	4	3751.4%	-296.7%	-13	-13	0	(0)	-0	-12	-9
2028	9	107.7%	13.3%	1	1	0	(1)	-0	1	1
2029	29	227.9%	13.3%	4	3	1	(2)	-2	4	3
2030	118	304.3%	13.3%	16	12	6	(9)	-8	18	10
2031	123	4.0%	13.3%	16	13	6	(9)	-0	10	5
2032	127	3.7%	13.3%	17	13	6	(10)	-0	11	5
2033	131	3.3%	13.3%	18	14	7	(10)	-0	11	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-23

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)197

PV of Terminal Value89

Enterprise Value66

(–) Net Debt-75

Equity Value141

(÷) Shares Outstanding18

Fair Value per Share$7.74

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.7%	$6	$9	$12	$15	$18
7.7%	$5	$7	$9	$12	$14
8.7%	$4	$6	$8	$10	$11
9.7%	$4	$5	$7	$8	$9
10.7%	$3	$5	$6	$7	$8

Current price: $7.69. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -9.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$4.52

Market Price

$7.69

Upside / Downside

-41.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Sagimet Biosciences Inc. (SGMT) has a fair value of $4.52 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Sagimet Biosciences Inc.SGMT	140	32.4x	583.6x
Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.TRDA	531	19.4x	19.7x
Assembly Biosciences, Inc.ASMB	464	5.6x	6.5x
Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.FHTX	286	8.0x	7.5x
Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.VYGR	237	5.1x	3.9x
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.ARCT	234	0.4x	0.7x
Humacyte, Inc.HUMA	102	57.0x	8.5x
Industry Median		6.8x	7.0x
(*) Revenue		2	0
= Enterprise Value		14	1
(-) Net Debt		-75	-75
Equity Value		89	76
(/) Outstanding shares		18	18
Fair Price		$5	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$4.52

-41.2%