Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common Shares's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 21.2% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 114, DPO 162, DIO 35). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (281% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1.29 per share, suggesting SCZM is overvalued by 85.4% at the current price of $8.83.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -23 | -36 | -37 | -48 | -62 | -64 |
| (−) Net Interest | 11 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 30 |
| (+) D&A | 17 | 26 | 36 | 48 | 62 | 64 |
| EBITDA | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 30 | 31 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 46 | 72 | 75 | 97 | 126 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 48 | -66 | -58 | -75 | -97 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 432 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.96% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 46 | -58 | -47 | -56 | -66 | 281 |
| Enterprise Value | 100 | |||||
| Projection Period | -181 | -180.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 281 | 280.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (15) | |||||
| Equity Value | 115 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 89M | |||||
| Fair Price | $1 | -85.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.0x | 12.0x | 14.0x | 16.0x | 18.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 8.0% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 9.0% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 10.0% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 11.0% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
Current price: $8.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common Shares's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 21.2% to 12.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 114, DPO 162, DIO 35). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (1004% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1.03 per share, suggesting SCZM is overvalued by 88.3% at the current price of $8.83.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -23 | -36 | -37 | -48 | -62 | -81 | -105 | -136 | -165 | -185 | -190 |
| (−) Net Interest | 11 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 39 | 50 | 65 | 79 | 89 | 91 |
| (+) D&A | 17 | 26 | 36 | 48 | 62 | 83 | 107 | 135 | 176 | 224 | 229 |
| EBITDA | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 30 | 41 | 52 | 64 | 90 | 127 | 130 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 46 | 72 | 75 | 97 | 126 | 164 | 214 | 278 | 337 | 377 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 48 | -66 | -58 | -75 | -97 | -124 | -163 | -216 | -249 | -252 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.0x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 1,825 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.96% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 46 | -58 | -47 | -56 | -66 | -77 | -93 | -113 | -120 | -111 | 774 |
| Enterprise Value | 77 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -697 | -905.1% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 774 | 1005.1% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (15) | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 92 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 89M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $1 | -88.3% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.0x | 12.0x | 14.0x | 16.0x | 18.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $0 | $0 | $2 | $3 | $5 |
| 8.0% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $3 | $4 |
| 9.0% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $4 |
| 10.0% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 |
| 11.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $3 |
Current price: $8.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common Shares (SCZM) has a fair value of $28.95 based on 4 comparable companies in the Other Precious Metals industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common SharesSCZM | 786 | 5.0x | 5.5x |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. | 8,989 | 11.4x | 23.9x |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | 6,694 | 27.0x | 22.0x |
| Aris Mining Corporation | 4,064 | 46.9x | 8.6x |
| Fortuna Mining Corp. | 3,277 | 12.0x | 14.8x |
| Industry Median | 19.5x | 18.4x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 157 | 143 | |
| Equity Value | 3,050 | 2,107 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 89 | 89 | |
| Fair Price | $34 | $24 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common Shares (SCZM) has a fair value of $30.89 based on 5 comparable companies in the Other Precious Metals industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common SharesSCZM | 786 | 3.7x | 3.6x |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. | 8,989 | 8.9x | 12.0x |
| Aura Minerals | 6,880 | 45.8x | 24.0x |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | 6,694 | 21.1x | 15.7x |
| Aris Mining Corporation | 4,064 | 14.0x | 8.4x |
| Fortuna Mining Corp. | 3,277 | 5.3x | 4.9x |
| Industry Median | 14.0x | 12.0x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 208 | 214 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 2,906 | 2,567 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -15 | -15 | |
| Equity Value | 2,921 | 2,582 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 89 | 89 | |
| Fair Price | $33 | $29 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common Shares (SCZM) has a fair value of $17.90 based on 7 comparable companies in the Other Precious Metals industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. Common SharesSCZM | 786 | 2.9x | 2.8x |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. | 8,989 | 5.3x | 7.1x |
| Elevra Lithium Limited | 7,379 | 50.8x | — |
| Aura Minerals | 6,880 | 7.6x | 4.0x |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | 6,694 | 16.9x | 12.5x |
| Aris Mining Corporation | 4,064 | 4.5x | 2.7x |
| Fortuna Mining Corp. | 3,277 | 3.1x | 2.9x |
| Endeavour Silver Corp. | 2,966 | 6.4x | 6.3x |
| Industry Median | 6.4x | 5.2x | |
| (*) Revenue | 269 | 278 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 1,722 | 1,436 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -15 | -15 | |
| Equity Value | 1,737 | 1,451 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 89 | 89 | |
| Fair Price | $20 | $16 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $14.08 based on TTM EPS (FY2024) of $1.76.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 0.0% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2024) | $1.76 |
| Fair Value | $14.08 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | $-1.6M | $-0.03 | — |
| FY2021 | $-11.5M | $-0.15 | — |
| FY2022 | $-17.8M | $-0.21 | — |
| FY2023 | $-11.2M | $-0.13 | — |
| FY2024 | $156.6M | $1.76 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.0%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.