RXO, Inc.

RXO

IndustrialsTruckingNYSE

$23.11

Market Cap: $3.81B

RXO, Inc. (RXO) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$3.66 – $125.18	$27.45	+79.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$8.21 – $137.97	$33.85	+120.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$58.24 – $553.57	$92.89	+506.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

RXO, Inc. (RXO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$33.85

Market Price

$23.11

Upside / Downside

+46.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -0.1% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.7%, RXO, Inc. (RXO) has an intrinsic value of $33.85 per share (range: $8.21 – $137.97).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.8%

Tax Rate

14.7%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	5,791	0.9%	2.0%	113	97	106	(94)	-87	196	189
2027	6,188	6.9%	4.0%	250	213	113	(130)	43	153	137
2028	6,592	6.5%	6.1%	404	344	121	(171)	44	250	208
2029	6,935	5.2%	8.2%	569	485	127	(214)	37	362	279
2030	7,295	5.2%	10.3%	750	640	134	(260)	39	474	340
2031	7,647	4.8%	10.3%	786	671	140	(310)	38	463	308
2032	7,989	4.5%	10.3%	822	701	146	(363)	37	447	277
2033	8,316	4.1%	10.3%	855	729	152	(418)	35	428	246
2034	8,626	3.7%	10.3%	887	757	158	(476)	34	405	217
2035	8,917	3.4%	10.3%	917	782	163	(535)	31	379	188

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2,390

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,378

PV of Terminal Value4,155

Enterprise Value6,545

(–) Net Debt843

Equity Value5,702

(÷) Shares Outstanding168

Fair Value per Share$33.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.7%	$-3	$24	$62	$100	$138
6.7%	$-3	$17	$44	$71	$98
7.7%	$-3	$13	$34	$55	$76
8.7%	$-3	$10	$27	$44	$61
9.7%	$-3	$8	$22	$37	$51

Current price: $23.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

RXO, Inc. (RXO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$27.45

Market Price

$23.11

Upside / Downside

+18.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -0.1% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.7%, RXO, Inc. (RXO) has an intrinsic value of $27.45 per share (range: $3.66 – $125.18).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.8%

Tax Rate

14.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	5,791	0.9%	2.0%	113	97	106	(122)	-87	168	162
2027	6,188	6.9%	4.0%	250	213	113	(191)	43	93	83
2028	6,592	6.5%	6.1%	404	344	121	(267)	44	154	128
2029	6,935	5.2%	8.2%	569	485	127	(349)	37	227	175
2030	7,295	5.2%	10.3%	750	640	134	(438)	39	297	213

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)761

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,561

PV of Terminal Value4,707

Enterprise Value5,468

(–) Net Debt843

Equity Value4,625

(÷) Shares Outstanding168

Fair Value per Share$27.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.7%	$-5	$17	$53	$89	$125
6.7%	$-5	$11	$37	$63	$88
7.7%	$-5	$7	$27	$47	$67
8.7%	$-5	$5	$21	$38	$54
9.7%	$-5	$4	$17	$31	$45

Current price: $23.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$92.89

Market Price

$23.11

Upside / Downside

+301.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), RXO, Inc. (RXO) has a fair value of $92.89 based on 10 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
RXO, Inc.RXO	3,893	0.8x	1.0x
FTAI Aviation Ltd.FTAI	25,317	11.4x	8.7x
Matson, Inc.MATX	5,210	1.7x	1.7x
Corporación América Airports S.A.CAAP	4,171	2.4x	2.5x
Hafnia LimitedHAFN	4,048	2.1x	3.5x
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	3,653	16.4x	3.7x
McGrath RentCorpMGRC	2,680	3.4x	3.7x
Amprius Technologies, Inc.AMPX	2,406	32.3x	18.7x
ABM Industries IncorporatedABM	2,260	0.4x	0.5x
TIC Solutions, Inc.TIC	1,566	1.9x	2.5x
PureCycle Technologies, Inc.PCT	988	192.4x	40.4x
Industry Median		2.9x	3.6x
(*) Revenue		5,742	4,545
= Enterprise Value		16,604	16,379
(-) Net Debt		843	843
Equity Value		15,761	15,536
(/) Outstanding shares		168	168
Fair Price		$94	$92

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$92.89

+301.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$3.66 – $125.18

$27.45

+79.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$8.21 – $137.97

$33.85

+120.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$58.24 – $553.57

$92.89

+506.3%

DCF Analysis

RXO, Inc. (RXO) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$33.85

Market Price

$23.11

Upside / Downside

+46.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-0.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.8%

Tax Rate

14.7%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	5,791	0.9%	2.0%	113	97	106	(94)	-87	196	189
2027	6,188	6.9%	4.0%	250	213	113	(130)	43	153	137
2028	6,592	6.5%	6.1%	404	344	121	(171)	44	250	208
2029	6,935	5.2%	8.2%	569	485	127	(214)	37	362	279
2030	7,295	5.2%	10.3%	750	640	134	(260)	39	474	340
2031	7,647	4.8%	10.3%	786	671	140	(310)	38	463	308
2032	7,989	4.5%	10.3%	822	701	146	(363)	37	447	277
2033	8,316	4.1%	10.3%	855	729	152	(418)	35	428	246
2034	8,626	3.7%	10.3%	887	757	158	(476)	34	405	217
2035	8,917	3.4%	10.3%	917	782	163	(535)	31	379	188

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)2,390

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,378

PV of Terminal Value4,155

Enterprise Value6,545

(–) Net Debt843

Equity Value5,702

(÷) Shares Outstanding168

Fair Value per Share$33.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
5.7%	$-3	$24	$62	$100	$138
6.7%	$-3	$17	$44	$71	$98
7.7%	$-3	$13	$34	$55	$76
8.7%	$-3	$10	$27	$44	$61
9.7%	$-3	$8	$22	$37	$51

Current price: $23.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$92.89

Market Price

$23.11

Upside / Downside

+301.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), RXO, Inc. (RXO) has a fair value of $92.89 based on 10 comparable companies in the Trucking industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Trucking

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
RXO, Inc.RXO	3,893	0.8x	1.0x
FTAI Aviation Ltd.FTAI	25,317	11.4x	8.7x
Matson, Inc.MATX	5,210	1.7x	1.7x
Corporación América Airports S.A.CAAP	4,171	2.4x	2.5x
Hafnia LimitedHAFN	4,048	2.1x	3.5x
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	3,653	16.4x	3.7x
McGrath RentCorpMGRC	2,680	3.4x	3.7x
Amprius Technologies, Inc.AMPX	2,406	32.3x	18.7x
ABM Industries IncorporatedABM	2,260	0.4x	0.5x
TIC Solutions, Inc.TIC	1,566	1.9x	2.5x
PureCycle Technologies, Inc.PCT	988	192.4x	40.4x
Industry Median		2.9x	3.6x
(*) Revenue		5,742	4,545
= Enterprise Value		16,604	16,379
(-) Net Debt		843	843
Equity Value		15,761	15,536
(/) Outstanding shares		168	168
Fair Price		$94	$92

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$92.89

+301.9%