Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) has a fair value of $24.15 based on 4 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.REFI | 243 | 6.8x | 5.5x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 237 | 4.5x | — |
| Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. | 206 | 4.6x | 59.7x |
| Seven Hills Realty Trust | 124 | 8.1x | 5.2x |
| Sachem Capital Corp. | 50 | 26.8x | 18.3x |
| Industry Median | 6.4x | 18.3x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 36 | 44 | |
| Equity Value | 229 | 806 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 21 | 21 | |
| Fair Price | $11 | $38 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) has a fair value of $21.31 based on 5 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.REFI | 243 | 9.1x | 10.2x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 237 | 27.8x | 91.1x |
| Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. | 206 | 3.2x | 14.0x |
| Seven Hills Realty Trust | 124 | 10.6x | 18.6x |
| Lument Finance Trust, Inc. | 67 | 19.9x | 45.1x |
| Sachem Capital Corp. | 50 | 9.8x | 21.8x |
| Industry Median | 10.6x | 21.8x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 36 | 32 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 382 | 699 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 83 | 83 | |
| Equity Value | 298 | 615 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 21 | 21 | |
| Fair Price | $14 | $29 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) has a fair value of $27.87 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Mortgage industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.REFI | 243 | 5.2x | 5.8x |
| Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 334 | 16.4x | 13.2x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 237 | 42.9x | 140.9x |
| Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. | 206 | 3.6x | 15.6x |
| Ellington Credit Company | 172 | 4.0x | 9.3x |
| Seven Hills Realty Trust | 124 | 8.3x | 14.6x |
| Lument Finance Trust, Inc. | 67 | 13.0x | 29.6x |
| Sachem Capital Corp. | 50 | 6.7x | 14.9x |
| Industry Median | 8.3x | 14.9x | |
| (*) Revenue | 63 | 56 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 523 | 838 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 83 | 83 | |
| Equity Value | 440 | 755 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 21 | 21 | |
| Fair Price | $21 | $35 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $45.31 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.81. The current PEG ratio is 0.19.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 32.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.81 |
| Fair Value | $45.31 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.68 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.81 | +7.9% | 4 |
1Y Forward EPS CAGR: 7.9%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $12.7M | $0.54 | — |
| FY2022 | $32.3M | $1.82 | +237.0% |
| FY2023 | $38.7M | $2.11 | +15.9% |
| FY2024 | $37.0M | $1.88 | -10.9% |
| FY2025 | $36.0M | $1.68 | -10.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 32.8%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 299.3% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $0.85 per share. The DDM range is $0.83 – $0.86 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $2.11 | 112.4% | -1.0% |
| 2023 | $2.13 | 101.1% | +34.4% |
| 2022 | $1.59 | 87.2% | +304.6% |
| 2021 | $0.39 | 54.1% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.43 | 15.0% | 0.2505 | $0.61 |
| 2027 | $2.79 | 15.0% | 0.0627 | $0.18 |
| 2028 | $3.21 | 15.0% | 0.0157 | $0.05 |
| 2029 | $3.69 | 15.0% | 0.0039 | $0.01 |
| 2030 | $4.25 | 15.0% | 0.0010 | $0.00 |
| Terminal Value | $4.35 DPS | 2.5% | $0.00 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 13.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 297.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 298.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 299.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 300.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 301.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.