Redwire Corporation

RDW

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNYSE

$9.20

Market Cap: $1.52B

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.15 – $17.55	$0.15	-98.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.52 – $4.71	$2.13	-78.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.15

Market Price

$9.20

Upside / Downside

-98.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -68.5% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.2%, Redwire Corporation (RDW) has an intrinsic value of $0.15 per share (range: $0.15 – $17.55).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-68.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

9.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.8%

D&A/Revenue

6.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	471	40.6%	-52.7%	-249	-249	31	(17)	-8	-227	-217
2027	566	20.1%	-37.0%	-209	-209	37	(24)	19	-216	-189
2028	707	24.9%	-21.2%	-150	-150	46	(35)	29	-168	-135
2029	884	24.9%	-5.5%	-48	-48	58	(50)	36	-77	-56
2030	1,104	24.9%	10.3%	114	90	72	(70)	45	47	32
2031	1,339	21.3%	10.3%	138	109	88	(94)	48	54	33
2032	1,575	17.6%	10.3%	162	128	103	(122)	49	61	34
2033	1,796	14.0%	10.3%	185	146	117	(151)	45	67	35
2034	1,981	10.3%	10.3%	204	161	130	(180)	38	72	34
2035	2,113	6.7%	10.3%	217	172	138	(207)	27	75	33

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-396

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,264

PV of Terminal Value550

Enterprise Value154

(–) Net Debt136

Equity Value18

(÷) Shares Outstanding120

Fair Value per Share$0.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
7.2%	$-7	$-3	$4	$11	$18
8.2%	$-7	$-4	$2	$7	$12
9.2%	$-7	$-4	$0	$5	$9
10.2%	$-7	$-5	$-1	$3	$6
11.2%	$-7	$-5	$-2	$2	$5

Current price: $9.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.13

Market Price

$9.20

Upside / Downside

-76.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Redwire Corporation (RDW) has a fair value of $2.13 based on 9 comparable companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Redwire CorporationRDW	1,100	3.7x	4.2x
Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT	1,494	1.2x	1.3x
Preformed Line Products CompanyPLPC	1,430	2.1x	2.1x
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSL	1,398	2.3x	2.4x
Astec Industries, Inc.ASTE	1,265	1.1x	1.2x
PROG Holdings, Inc.PRG	1,128	0.6x	0.5x
Limbach Holdings, Inc.LMB	936	1.5x	1.9x
Barrett Business Services, Inc.BBSI	764	0.6x	0.6x
Ballard Power Systems Inc.BLDP	761	2.5x	2.3x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	371	0.5x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		335	292
= Enterprise Value		410	370
(-) Net Debt		136	136
Equity Value		274	234
(/) Outstanding shares		120	120
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.13

-76.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.15 – $17.55

$0.15

-98.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.52 – $4.71

$2.13

-78.5%

DCF Analysis

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.15

Market Price

$9.20

Upside / Downside

-98.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-68.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

9.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.8%

D&A/Revenue

6.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	471	40.6%	-52.7%	-249	-249	31	(17)	-8	-227	-217
2027	566	20.1%	-37.0%	-209	-209	37	(24)	19	-216	-189
2028	707	24.9%	-21.2%	-150	-150	46	(35)	29	-168	-135
2029	884	24.9%	-5.5%	-48	-48	58	(50)	36	-77	-56
2030	1,104	24.9%	10.3%	114	90	72	(70)	45	47	32
2031	1,339	21.3%	10.3%	138	109	88	(94)	48	54	33
2032	1,575	17.6%	10.3%	162	128	103	(122)	49	61	34
2033	1,796	14.0%	10.3%	185	146	117	(151)	45	67	35
2034	1,981	10.3%	10.3%	204	161	130	(180)	38	72	34
2035	2,113	6.7%	10.3%	217	172	138	(207)	27	75	33

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-396

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,264

PV of Terminal Value550

Enterprise Value154

(–) Net Debt136

Equity Value18

(÷) Shares Outstanding120

Fair Value per Share$0.15

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
7.2%	$-7	$-3	$4	$11	$18
8.2%	$-7	$-4	$2	$7	$12
9.2%	$-7	$-4	$0	$5	$9
10.2%	$-7	$-5	$-1	$3	$6
11.2%	$-7	$-5	$-2	$2	$5

Current price: $9.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$2.13

Market Price

$9.20

Upside / Downside

-76.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Redwire Corporation (RDW) has a fair value of $2.13 based on 9 comparable companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Redwire CorporationRDW	1,100	3.7x	4.2x
Allegiant Travel CompanyALGT	1,494	1.2x	1.3x
Preformed Line Products CompanyPLPC	1,430	2.1x	2.1x
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSL	1,398	2.3x	2.4x
Astec Industries, Inc.ASTE	1,265	1.1x	1.2x
PROG Holdings, Inc.PRG	1,128	0.6x	0.5x
Limbach Holdings, Inc.LMB	936	1.5x	1.9x
Barrett Business Services, Inc.BBSI	764	0.6x	0.6x
Ballard Power Systems Inc.BLDP	761	2.5x	2.3x
Wheels Up Experience Inc.UP	371	0.5x	0.3x
Industry Median		1.2x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		335	292
= Enterprise Value		410	370
(-) Net Debt		136	136
Equity Value		274	234
(/) Outstanding shares		120	120
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$2.13

-76.9%