Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

RARE

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$26.13

Market Cap: $2.57B

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 19:09

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$3.23 – $89.52	$10.62	-59.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$49.92 – $87.97	$51.73	+98.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$10.62

Market Price

$26.13

Upside / Downside

-59.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -79.5% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.7%, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) has an intrinsic value of $10.62 per share (range: $3.23 – $89.52).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-79.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

14.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.3%

D&A/Revenue

4.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	748	11.1%	-61.0%	-456	-456	32	(104)	-62	-467	-450
2027	988	32.1%	-42.4%	-419	-419	42	(129)	38	-545	-487
2028	1,241	25.6%	-23.9%	-296	-296	52	(152)	40	-436	-362
2029	1,692	36.4%	-5.3%	-90	-90	71	(193)	71	-284	-219
2030	2,221	31.2%	13.2%	293	231	94	(235)	84	7	5
2031	2,559	15.2%	13.2%	337	267	108	(249)	53	73	48
2032	2,885	12.8%	13.2%	381	301	122	(256)	52	115	71
2033	3,183	10.3%	13.2%	420	332	134	(256)	47	163	94
2034	3,434	7.9%	13.2%	453	358	145	(247)	40	217	115
2035	3,620	5.4%	13.2%	478	377	153	(229)	30	271	134

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,051

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)5,948

PV of Terminal Value2,940

Enterprise Value1,889

(–) Net Debt842

Equity Value1,047

(÷) Shares Outstanding99

Fair Value per Share$10.62

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.7%	$-3	$20	$43	$66	$90
6.7%	$-11	$6	$22	$39	$55
7.7%	$-15	$-2	$11	$23	$36
8.7%	$-17	$-7	$3	$13	$24
9.7%	$-19	$-10	$-2	$7	$15

Current price: $26.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$51.73

Market Price

$26.13

Upside / Downside

+98.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) has a fair value of $51.73 based on 3 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.RARE	2,576	5.1x	4.6x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	3,967	8.6x	6.0x
Soleno Therapeutics, Inc.SLNO	2,760	14.1x	5.8x
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.IDYA	2,488	11.0x	69.2x
Industry Median		11.0x	6.0x
(*) Revenue		673	748
= Enterprise Value		7,395	4,491
(-) Net Debt		842	842
Equity Value		6,553	3,649
(/) Outstanding shares		99	99
Fair Price		$66	$37

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$51.73

+98.0%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$3.23 – $89.52

$10.62

-59.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$49.92 – $87.97

$51.73

+98.0%

DCF Analysis

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$10.62

Market Price

$26.13

Upside / Downside

-59.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-79.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.7%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

14.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.3%

D&A/Revenue

4.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	748	11.1%	-61.0%	-456	-456	32	(104)	-62	-467	-450
2027	988	32.1%	-42.4%	-419	-419	42	(129)	38	-545	-487
2028	1,241	25.6%	-23.9%	-296	-296	52	(152)	40	-436	-362
2029	1,692	36.4%	-5.3%	-90	-90	71	(193)	71	-284	-219
2030	2,221	31.2%	13.2%	293	231	94	(235)	84	7	5
2031	2,559	15.2%	13.2%	337	267	108	(249)	53	73	48
2032	2,885	12.8%	13.2%	381	301	122	(256)	52	115	71
2033	3,183	10.3%	13.2%	420	332	134	(256)	47	163	94
2034	3,434	7.9%	13.2%	453	358	145	(247)	40	217	115
2035	3,620	5.4%	13.2%	478	377	153	(229)	30	271	134

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,051

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)5,948

PV of Terminal Value2,940

Enterprise Value1,889

(–) Net Debt842

Equity Value1,047

(÷) Shares Outstanding99

Fair Value per Share$10.62

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.7%	$-3	$20	$43	$66	$90
6.7%	$-11	$6	$22	$39	$55
7.7%	$-15	$-2	$11	$23	$36
8.7%	$-17	$-7	$3	$13	$24
9.7%	$-19	$-10	$-2	$7	$15

Current price: $26.13. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 15.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$51.73

Market Price

$26.13

Upside / Downside

+98.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.RARE	2,576	5.1x	4.6x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	3,967	8.6x	6.0x
Soleno Therapeutics, Inc.SLNO	2,760	14.1x	5.8x
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.IDYA	2,488	11.0x	69.2x
Industry Median		11.0x	6.0x
(*) Revenue		673	748
= Enterprise Value		7,395	4,491
(-) Net Debt		842	842
Equity Value		6,553	3,649
(/) Outstanding shares		99	99
Fair Price		$66	$37

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$51.73

+98.0%