Peloton Interactive, Inc.

PTON

Consumer CyclicalLeisureNASDAQ

$5.26

Market Cap: $2.15B

Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.34 – $13.96	$0.34	-92.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.09 – $11.25	$0.70	-84.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.78 – $12.34	$6.91	+48.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.70

Market Price

$5.26

Upside / Downside

-86.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.4% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.8%, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) has an intrinsic value of $0.70 per share (range: $0.09 – $11.25).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,430	-2.5%	0.4%	9	7	86	(101)	190	-198	-190
2027	2,441	0.5%	2.2%	54	43	86	(106)	2	20	18
2028	2,450	0.3%	4.0%	99	78	86	(112)	1	52	43
2029	2,806	14.5%	5.9%	165	130	99	(134)	63	33	25
2030	2,985	6.4%	7.7%	230	182	105	(148)	32	107	76
2031	2,719	-8.9%	7.7%	210	166	96	(141)	-47	168	111
2032	2,542	-6.5%	7.7%	196	155	90	(137)	-31	139	85
2033	2,436	-4.1%	7.7%	188	149	86	(136)	-19	117	66
2034	2,393	-1.8%	7.7%	185	146	84	(139)	-8	99	52
2035	2,408	0.6%	7.7%	186	147	85	(144)	3	85	41

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)328

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,807

PV of Terminal Value883

Enterprise Value1,211

(–) Net Debt937

Equity Value274

(÷) Shares Outstanding390

Fair Value per Share$0.70

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.8%	$-3	$-1	$3	$7	$11
6.8%	$-3	$-1	$2	$5	$8
7.8%	$-3	$-2	$1	$3	$5
8.8%	$-3	$-2	$0	$2	$4
9.8%	$-3	$-2	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $5.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.34

Market Price

$5.26

Upside / Downside

-93.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,430	-2.5%	0.4%	9	7	86	(106)	190	-203	-195
2027	2,441	0.5%	2.2%	54	43	86	(116)	2	10	9
2028	2,450	0.3%	4.0%	99	78	86	(127)	1	37	30
2029	2,806	14.5%	5.9%	165	130	99	(157)	63	10	7
2030	2,985	6.4%	7.7%	230	182	105	(179)	32	77	55

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-94

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,632

PV of Terminal Value1,163

Enterprise Value1,069

(–) Net Debt937

Equity Value132

(÷) Shares Outstanding390

Fair Value per Share$0.34

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.8%	$-3	$-3	$3	$8	$14
6.8%	$-3	$-3	$1	$5	$9
7.8%	$-3	$-3	$0	$3	$7
8.8%	$-3	$-3	$-0	$2	$5
9.8%	$-3	$-3	$-1	$1	$4

Current price: $5.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.91

Market Price

$5.26

Upside / Downside

+31.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) has a fair value of $6.91 based on 9 comparable companies in the Leisure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Leisure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Peloton Interactive, Inc.PTON	2,052	1.2x	1.2x
Victoria's Secret & Co.VSCO	3,883	0.9x	1.0x
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP	3,185	0.6x	0.6x
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.AEO	2,963	0.8x	0.8x
YETI Holdings, Inc.YETI	2,810	1.5x	1.4x
The Buckle, Inc.BKE	2,607	2.1x	2.3x
Visteon CorporationVC	2,478	0.6x	0.6x
OneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedOSW	2,405	2.6x	2.6x
United Parks & Resorts Inc.PRKS	1,881	2.5x	2.4x
Six Flags Entertainment CorporationFUN	1,821	2.3x	2.3x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		2,491	2,432
= Enterprise Value		3,799	3,468
(-) Net Debt		937	937
Equity Value		2,862	2,531
(/) Outstanding shares		390	390
Fair Price		$7	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.91

+31.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.34 – $13.96

$0.34

-92.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.09 – $11.25

$0.70

-84.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.78 – $12.34

$6.91

+48.6%

DCF Analysis

Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.70

Market Price

$5.26

Upside / Downside

-86.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.4%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,430	-2.5%	0.4%	9	7	86	(101)	190	-198	-190
2027	2,441	0.5%	2.2%	54	43	86	(106)	2	20	18
2028	2,450	0.3%	4.0%	99	78	86	(112)	1	52	43
2029	2,806	14.5%	5.9%	165	130	99	(134)	63	33	25
2030	2,985	6.4%	7.7%	230	182	105	(148)	32	107	76
2031	2,719	-8.9%	7.7%	210	166	96	(141)	-47	168	111
2032	2,542	-6.5%	7.7%	196	155	90	(137)	-31	139	85
2033	2,436	-4.1%	7.7%	188	149	86	(136)	-19	117	66
2034	2,393	-1.8%	7.7%	185	146	84	(139)	-8	99	52
2035	2,408	0.6%	7.7%	186	147	85	(144)	3	85	41

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)328

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,807

PV of Terminal Value883

Enterprise Value1,211

(–) Net Debt937

Equity Value274

(÷) Shares Outstanding390

Fair Value per Share$0.70

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.8%	$-3	$-1	$3	$7	$11
6.8%	$-3	$-1	$2	$5	$8
7.8%	$-3	$-2	$1	$3	$5
8.8%	$-3	$-2	$0	$2	$4
9.8%	$-3	$-2	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $5.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.91

Market Price

$5.26

Upside / Downside

+31.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) has a fair value of $6.91 based on 9 comparable companies in the Leisure industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Leisure

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Peloton Interactive, Inc.PTON	2,052	1.2x	1.2x
Victoria's Secret & Co.VSCO	3,883	0.9x	1.0x
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.AAP	3,185	0.6x	0.6x
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.AEO	2,963	0.8x	0.8x
YETI Holdings, Inc.YETI	2,810	1.5x	1.4x
The Buckle, Inc.BKE	2,607	2.1x	2.3x
Visteon CorporationVC	2,478	0.6x	0.6x
OneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedOSW	2,405	2.6x	2.6x
United Parks & Resorts Inc.PRKS	1,881	2.5x	2.4x
Six Flags Entertainment CorporationFUN	1,821	2.3x	2.3x
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		2,491	2,432
= Enterprise Value		3,799	3,468
(-) Net Debt		937	937
Equity Value		2,862	2,531
(/) Outstanding shares		390	390
Fair Price		$7	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.91

+31.4%