Philip Morris International Inc.

Consumer DefensiveTobaccoNYSE

$182.11

Market Cap: $283.83B

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$97.49 – $706.31	$180.16	+17.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$114.09 – $766.10	$203.51	+32.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$107.42 – $219.53	$158.85	+3.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$120.93 – $261.03	$180.89	+18.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$153.21 – $178.98	$155.42	+1.4%
EV/EBITDA	$105.59 – $153.88	$143.51	-6.3%
EV/Revenue	$60.87 – $139.31	$85.23	-44.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$115.32 – $115.32	$115.32	-24.8%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$65.59 – $120.63	$86.87	-43.3%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$87.18 – $248.07	$134.07	-12.5%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$180.16

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-1.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Philip Morris International Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 5.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 120, DIO 302). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $180.16 per share, suggesting PM is fairly valued by 1.1% at the current price of $182.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	14,413	15,281	16,328	16,540	17,462	17,898
(−) Net Interest	1,542	1,635	1,747	1,769	1,868	1,915
(+) D&A	1,232	1,383	1,486	1,562	1,617	1,658
EBITDA	17,187	18,298	19,560	19,871	20,947	21,471

(−) Tax	2,910	3,086	3,297	3,340	3,526	3,614
(−) CapEx	1,502	1,592	1,701	1,723	1,819	1,865
(−) ΔWC	490	805	972	196	855	877
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	12,285	12,816	13,591	14,611	14,747	15,115

Terminal Value						367,485
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	11,898	11,642	11,580	11,677	11,055	266,800

Enterprise Value	324,651
Projection Period	57,851	17.8%
Terminal Value	266,800	82.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	43,963

Equity Value	280,688
(/) Outstanding Shares	1,558

Fair Price	$180.16

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$259	$307	$377	$491	$706
5.6%	$189	$214	$247	$292	$359
6.6%	$147	$162	$180	$204	$235
7.6%	$118	$128	$140	$154	$172
8.6%	$97	$104	$112	$122	$133

Current price: $182.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$203.51

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

+11.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Philip Morris International Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 120, DIO 302). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $203.51 per share, suggesting PM is fairly valued by 11.8% at the current price of $182.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	14,413	15,281	16,328	16,540	17,462	18,518	19,526	20,469	21,333	22,104	22,656
(−) Net Interest	1,542	1,635	1,747	1,769	1,868	1,981	2,089	2,190	2,282	2,365	2,424
(+) D&A	1,232	1,383	1,486	1,562	1,617	1,667	1,753	1,841	1,928	2,028	2,078
EBITDA	17,187	18,298	19,560	19,871	20,947	22,167	23,368	24,501	25,543	26,496	27,158

(−) Tax	2,910	3,086	3,297	3,340	3,526	3,739	3,943	4,133	4,308	4,463	4,575
(−) CapEx	1,502	1,592	1,701	1,723	1,819	1,929	2,034	2,132	2,223	2,303	2,360
(−) ΔWC	490	805	972	196	855	980	935	875	801	715	732
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	12,285	12,816	13,591	14,611	14,747	15,518	16,456	17,360	18,211	19,015	19,490

Terminal Value											473,856
WACC / Discount Rate	6.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	11,898	11,642	11,580	11,677	11,055	10,911	10,853	10,739	10,567	10,349	249,769

Enterprise Value	361,039
Projection Period	111,270	30.8%
Terminal Value	249,769	69.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	43,963

Equity Value	317,076
(/) Outstanding Shares	1,558

Fair Price	$203.51

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.6%	$306	$355	$427	$544	$766
5.6%	$223	$247	$279	$324	$389
6.6%	$172	$186	$204	$226	$255
7.6%	$138	$147	$158	$170	$186
8.6%	$114	$120	$127	$135	$144

Current price: $182.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$158.89

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-12.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Philip Morris International Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 5.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 120, DIO 302). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $158.85 per share, suggesting PM is fairly valued by 12.8% at the current price of $182.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.99x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	14,413	15,281	16,328	16,540	17,462	17,898
(−) Net Interest	1,542	1,635	1,747	1,769	1,868	1,915
(+) D&A	1,232	1,383	1,486	1,562	1,617	1,658
EBITDA	17,187	18,298	19,560	19,871	20,947	21,471

(−) Tax	2,910	3,086	3,297	3,340	3,526	—
(−) CapEx	1,502	1,592	1,701	1,723	1,819	—
(−) ΔWC	490	805	972	196	855	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	12,285	12,816	13,591	14,611	14,747	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						15.0x
Terminal Value						321,846
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	11,898	11,642	11,580	11,677	11,055	233,665

Enterprise Value	291,517
Projection Period	57,851	19.8%
Terminal Value	233,665	80.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	43,963
Equity Value	247,554
(÷) Outstanding Shares	1558M
Fair Price	$159	-12.7%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.0x	13.0x	15.0x	17.0x	19.0x
4.6%	$132	$154	$176	$198	$220
5.6%	$125	$146	$167	$188	$209
6.6%	$119	$139	$159	$179	$199
7.6%	$113	$132	$151	$170	$189
8.6%	$107	$126	$144	$162	$180

Current price: $182.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$180.93

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-0.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Philip Morris International Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.4% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 49, DPO 120, DIO 302). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (66% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $180.89 per share, suggesting PM is fairly valued by 0.7% at the current price of $182.11.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.61%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.99x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	14,413	15,281	16,328	16,540	17,462	18,518	19,526	20,469	21,333	22,104	22,656
(−) Net Interest	1,542	1,635	1,747	1,769	1,868	1,981	2,089	2,190	2,282	2,365	2,424
(+) D&A	1,232	1,383	1,486	1,562	1,617	1,667	1,753	1,841	1,928	2,028	2,078
EBITDA	17,187	18,298	19,560	19,871	20,947	22,167	23,368	24,501	25,543	26,496	27,158

(−) Tax	2,910	3,086	3,297	3,340	3,526	3,739	3,943	4,133	4,308	4,463	—
(−) CapEx	1,502	1,592	1,701	1,723	1,819	1,929	2,034	2,132	2,223	2,303	—
(−) ΔWC	490	805	972	196	855	980	935	875	801	715	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	12,285	12,816	13,591	14,611	14,747	15,518	16,456	17,360	18,211	19,015	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											15.0x
Terminal Value											407,099
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	11,898	11,642	11,580	11,677	11,055	10,911	10,853	10,739	10,567	10,349	214,582

Enterprise Value	325,852
Projection Period	111,270	34.1%
Terminal Value	214,582	65.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	43,963
Equity Value	281,889
(÷) Outstanding Shares	1558M
Fair Price	$181	-0.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.0x	13.0x	15.0x	17.0x	19.0x
4.6%	$172	$194	$217	$239	$261
5.6%	$157	$178	$198	$218	$238
6.6%	$144	$163	$181	$199	$218
7.6%	$132	$149	$165	$182	$199
8.6%	$121	$136	$151	$167	$182

Current price: $182.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$155.06

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-14.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) has a fair value of $155.06 based on 5 comparable companies in the Tobacco industry.

P/E Valuation — Tobacco

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Philip Morris International Inc.PM	283,727	25.1x	21.7x
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG	332,564	21.9x	20.5x
The Coca-Cola CompanyKO	321,520	24.6x	23.2x
PepsiCo, Inc.PEP	211,766	25.8x	18.0x
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVBUD	141,803	21.0x	17.1x
Altria Group, Inc.MO	108,088	15.7x	11.9x
Industry Median		21.9x	18.0x
(*) Profit after tax		11,348	13,070
Equity Value		248,087	235,093
(/) Outstanding shares		1,558	1,558
Fair Price		$159	$151

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$155.06

-14.8%

Fair Value

$143.53

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-21.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) has a fair value of $143.53 based on 5 comparable companies in the Tobacco industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Tobacco

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Philip Morris International Inc.PM	283,727	18.8x	17.5x
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG	332,564	15.0x	14.6x
The Coca-Cola CompanyKO	321,520	19.1x	18.7x
PepsiCo, Inc.PEP	211,766	16.2x	15.4x
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVBUD	141,803	9.8x	9.2x
Altria Group, Inc.MO	108,088	11.9x	12.0x
Industry Median		15.0x	14.6x
(*) EBITDA		17,463	18,757
= Enterprise Value		261,694	273,479
(-) Net Debt		43,963	43,963
Equity Value		217,731	229,516
(/) Outstanding shares		1,558	1,558
Fair Price		$140	$147

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$143.53

-21.2%

Fair Value

$85.24

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-53.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) has a fair value of $85.24 based on 5 comparable companies in the Tobacco industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Tobacco

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Philip Morris International Inc.PM	283,727	8.1x	7.5x
The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG	332,564	4.3x	4.1x
The Coca-Cola CompanyKO	321,520	7.4x	7.3x
PepsiCo, Inc.PEP	211,766	2.7x	2.6x
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVBUD	141,803	3.4x	3.2x
Altria Group, Inc.MO	108,088	6.4x	6.4x
Industry Median		4.3x	4.1x
(*) Revenue		40,648	43,659
= Enterprise Value		172,881	180,667
(-) Net Debt		43,963	43,963
Equity Value		128,918	136,704
(/) Outstanding shares		1,558	1,558
Fair Price		$83	$88

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$85.24

-53.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$115.32

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-36.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 13.7% plus 3.6% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $115.32 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $8.43. The current PEG ratio is 1.33.

PEG Ratio

1.33Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 18.2 ÷ (10.1% + 3.6%) = 1.33

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.1%
Dividend Yield	+3.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	13.7%
Fair P/E	13.7x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$8.43
Fair Value	$115.32

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$7.26	—	—
FY2026E	$8.43	+16.1%	12
FY2027E	$9.20	+9.1%	11
FY2028E	$10.04	+9.2%	11
FY2029E	$11.06	+10.1%	5
FY2030E	$11.73	+6.1%	5

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$9.1B	$5.83	—
FY2022	$9.0B	$5.81	-0.3%
FY2023	$7.8B	$5.02	-13.6%
FY2024	$7.0B	$4.52	-10.0%
FY2025	$11.3B	$7.26	+60.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 5.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$86.87

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-52.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.6% and normalized earnings of $11.9B, the company has a fair value of $86.87 per share. The EPV range is $65.59 – $120.63 based on WACC sensitivity (5.1% – 8.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	11,858	11,858	11,858
(/) WACC	8.1%	6.6%	5.1%
Enterprise Value	146,156	179,307	231,909
(-) Net debt	43,963	43,963	43,963
Equity Value	102,193	135,344	187,946
(/) Outstanding shares	1,558	1,558	1,558
Fair Price	$65.59	$86.87	$120.63

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$134.07

Market Price

$182.11

Upside / Downside

-26.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.4% and projected dividend growth of 6.0%, the fair value is $134.07 per share. The DDM range is $87.18 – $248.07 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$5.54

Dividend Yield

3.61%

Payout Ratio

76.0%

Dividend Coverage

1.32x

FCF Payout Ratio80.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)3.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$5.54	76.0%	+5.1%
2024	$5.27	116.5%	+2.7%
2023	$5.13	102.2%	+1.9%
2022	$5.03	86.3%	+3.5%
2021	$4.86	83.2%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$5.86	6.0%	0.9309	$5.46
2027	$6.21	6.0%	0.8665	$5.38
2028	$6.58	6.0%	0.8066	$5.31
2029	$6.98	6.0%	0.7509	$5.24
2030	$7.39	6.0%	0.6990	$5.17
Terminal Value	$7.58 DPS	2.5%		$107.51

PV of Projected Dividends$26.56

PV of Terminal Value$107.51

Fair Value per Share$134.07

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.0%	5.0%	6.0%	7.0%	8.0%
5.4%	$207	$217	$227	$237	$248
6.4%	$154	$161	$169	$176	$184
7.4%	$123	$128	$134	$140	$146
8.4%	$102	$107	$111	$116	$121
9.4%	$87	$91	$95	$99	$103

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.