Phunware, Inc.

PHUN

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$1.99

Market Cap: $40.18M

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 16, 2026 22:13

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.49 – $2.65	$2.57	+23.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.32 – $2.54	$2.43	+16.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$5.13 – $7.19	$6.10	+191.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+22.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -803.7% to a target of 10.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) has an intrinsic value of $2.43 per share (range: $2.32 – $2.54).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-803.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

81.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.2%

D&A/Revenue

9.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	37.2%	-641.0%	-22	-22	(3)	-2	-23	-22
2027	3	-10.0%	-478.2%	-15	-15	(2)	0	-17	-15
2028	3	-10.0%	-315.4%	-9	-9	(2)	0	-11	-9
2029	3	-10.0%	-152.7%	-4	-4	(1)	0	-5	-4
2030	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-1	-1
2031	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-1	-0
2032	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-0	-0
2033	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0
2034	2	-8.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0
2035	2	-2.5%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-51

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-51

(–) Net Debt-100

Equity Value49

(÷) Shares Outstanding20

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.0%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.9%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
9.9%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$3
10.9%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $1.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -74.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.57

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+29.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-803.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

81.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.2%

D&A/Revenue

9.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	37.2%	-641.0%	-22	-22	(2)	-2	-23	-22
2027	3	-10.0%	-478.2%	-15	-15	(2)	0	-17	-15
2028	3	-10.0%	-315.4%	-9	-9	(1)	0	-10	-8
2029	3	-10.0%	-152.7%	-4	-4	(1)	0	-5	-3
2030	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-48

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-48

(–) Net Debt-100

Equity Value52

(÷) Shares Outstanding20

Fair Value per Share$2.57

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$2	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.0%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
9.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
10.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $1.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.10

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+206.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) has a fair value of $6.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Phunware, Inc.PHUN	40	-23.4x	-2.7x
Odysight.ai Inc.ODYS	91	22.0x	16.6x
Where Food Comes From, Inc.WFCF	62	2.4x	2.3x
Blackboxstocks Inc.BLBX	42	17.7x	7.1x
Knorex Ltd.KNRX	34	3.6x	—
Aware, Inc.AWRE	27	1.4x	0.4x
Upland Software, Inc.UPLD	19	1.6x	1.2x
SurgePays, Inc.SURG	13	0.4x	0.2x
Industry Median		2.4x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		3	22
= Enterprise Value		6	40
(-) Net Debt		-100	-100
Equity Value		106	140
(/) Outstanding shares		20	20
Fair Price		$5	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.10

+206.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 16, 2026 22:13

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.49 – $2.65	$2.57	+23.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.32 – $2.54	$2.43	+16.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$5.13 – $7.19	$6.10	+191.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+22.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-803.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

81.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.2%

D&A/Revenue

9.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	37.2%	-641.0%	-22	-22	(3)	-2	-23	-22
2027	3	-10.0%	-478.2%	-15	-15	(2)	0	-17	-15
2028	3	-10.0%	-315.4%	-9	-9	(2)	0	-11	-9
2029	3	-10.0%	-152.7%	-4	-4	(1)	0	-5	-4
2030	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-1	-1
2031	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-1	-0
2032	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(1)	0	-0	-0
2033	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0
2034	2	-8.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0
2035	2	-2.5%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	0	0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-51

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-51

(–) Net Debt-100

Equity Value49

(÷) Shares Outstanding20

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.0%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
8.9%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2
9.9%	$2	$2	$2	$2	$3
10.9%	$2	$2	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $1.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.57

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+29.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-803.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.1%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

81.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.2%

D&A/Revenue

9.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	4	37.2%	-641.0%	-22	-22	(2)	-2	-23	-22
2027	3	-10.0%	-478.2%	-15	-15	(2)	0	-17	-15
2028	3	-10.0%	-315.4%	-9	-9	(1)	0	-10	-8
2029	3	-10.0%	-152.7%	-4	-4	(1)	0	-5	-3
2030	2	-10.0%	10.1%	0	0	(0)	0	-0	-0

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-48

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-48

(–) Net Debt-100

Equity Value52

(÷) Shares Outstanding20

Fair Value per Share$2.57

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.1%	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%
7.0%	$2	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.0%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
8.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
9.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3
10.9%	$3	$3	$3	$3	$3

Current price: $1.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.10

Market Price

$1.99

Upside / Downside

+206.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Phunware, Inc. (PHUN) has a fair value of $6.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Phunware, Inc.PHUN	40	-23.4x	-2.7x
Odysight.ai Inc.ODYS	91	22.0x	16.6x
Where Food Comes From, Inc.WFCF	62	2.4x	2.3x
Blackboxstocks Inc.BLBX	42	17.7x	7.1x
Knorex Ltd.KNRX	34	3.6x	—
Aware, Inc.AWRE	27	1.4x	0.4x
Upland Software, Inc.UPLD	19	1.6x	1.2x
SurgePays, Inc.SURG	13	0.4x	0.2x
Industry Median		2.4x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		3	22
= Enterprise Value		6	40
(-) Net Debt		-100	-100
Equity Value		106	140
(/) Outstanding shares		20	20
Fair Price		$5	$7

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.10

+206.5%