Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.5% to -0.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 65, DPO 42, DIO 39). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (68% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $6.21 per share, suggesting PBYI is overvalued by 17.1% at the current price of $7.49.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| (−) Net Interest | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| (+) D&A | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 29 |
| (−) Tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (−) CapEx | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| (−) ΔWC | -16 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 37 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
| Terminal Value | 328 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.0% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 35 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 213 |
| Enterprise Value | 314 | |||||
| Projection Period | 101 | 32.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 213 | 67.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (1) | |||||
| Equity Value | 315 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 51 | |||||
| Fair Price | $6.21 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| 8.0% | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| 9.0% | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| 10.0% | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| 11.0% | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
Current price: $7.49. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.5% to 2.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 65, DPO 42, DIO 39). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (47% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $5.85 per share, suggesting PBYI is overvalued by 21.9% at the current price of $7.49.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| (−) Net Interest | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| (+) D&A | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| EBITDA | 29 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 |
| (−) Tax | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (−) CapEx | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| (−) ΔWC | -16 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -1 | -0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 37 | 22 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| Terminal Value | 328 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.0% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 35 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 138 |
| Enterprise Value | 295 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 157 | 53.2% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 138 | 46.8% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (1) | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 296 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 51 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $5.85 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| 8.0% | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| 9.0% | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
| 10.0% | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| 11.0% | $4 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $5 |
Current price: $7.49. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI) has a fair value of $3.01 based on 2 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI | 379 | 12.3x | 30.0x |
| Atea Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 433 | 4.0x | — |
| Abeona Therapeutics Inc. | 337 | 5.8x | — |
| Industry Median | 4.9x | — | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 31 | ||
| Equity Value | 153 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 51 | ||
| Fair Price | $3 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (PBYI) has a fair value of $74.39 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puma Biotechnology, Inc.PBYI | 379 | 1.7x | 1.7x |
| Abeona Therapeutics Inc. | 337 | 48.6x | 4.4x |
| Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. | 266 | 8.9x | 10.4x |
| Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. | 262 | 0.8x | 1.6x |
| Sagimet Biosciences Inc. | 249 | 86.9x | — |
| Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. | 239 | 5.2x | 4.0x |
| Humacyte, Inc. | 166 | 88.6x | 16.2x |
| Industry Median | 28.8x | 4.4x | |
| (*) Revenue | 228 | 218 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 6,572 | 962 | |
| (-) Net Debt | -1 | -1 | |
| Equity Value | 6,573 | 963 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 51 | 51 | |
| Fair Price | $130 | $19 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $15.25 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $0.61. The current PEG ratio is 0.02.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 717.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $0.61 |
| Fair Value | $15.25 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-29.1M | $-0.72 | — |
| FY2022 | $2,000 | $0.02 | — |
| FY2023 | $21.6M | $0.45 | +2116.7% |
| FY2024 | $30.3M | $0.62 | +37.8% |
| FY2025 | $31.1M | $0.61 | -1.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 717.6%
Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 9.0% and normalized earnings of $20.6M, the company has a fair value of $4.51 per share. The EPV range is $3.87 – $5.41 based on WACC sensitivity (7.5% – 10.5%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| (/) WACC | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% |
| Enterprise Value | 195 | 228 | 273 |
| (-) Net debt | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Equity Value | 196 | 229 | 274 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Fair Price | $3.87 | $4.51 | $5.41 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.