Pan American Silver Corp.

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pan American Silver Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 42.8% to 8.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 32, DIO 117). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $12.81 per share, suggesting PAAS is overvalued by 78.3% at the current price of $59.14.

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Sensitivity Analysis

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pan American Silver Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 42.8% to 6.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 32, DIO 117). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (58% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $7.14 per share, suggesting PAAS is overvalued by 87.9% at the current price of $59.14.

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Sensitivity Analysis

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pan American Silver Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 42.8% to 8.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 32, DIO 117). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (95% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.35 per share, suggesting PAAS is overvalued by 47.0% at the current price of $59.14.

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Sensitivity Analysis

Based on default parameters

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pan American Silver Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 42.8% to 6.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 32, DIO 117). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (91% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.28 per share, suggesting PAAS is overvalued by 47.1% at the current price of $59.14.

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Sensitivity Analysis

Based on default parameters