Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -40.2% to a target of 23.6% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.3%, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) has an intrinsic value of $19.39 per share (range: $17.55 – $22.81).
Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -40.2% to a target of 23.6% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.3%, Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) has an intrinsic value of $17.53 per share (range: $16.14 – $20.11).
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) has a fair value of $9.63 based on 10 comparable companies in the Insurance - Specialty industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Octave Specialty Group, Inc.OSG | 253 | 1.2x | 2.7x |
| VersaBank | 598 | 2.8x | — |
| Sierra Bancorp | 497 | 4.4x | 6.2x |
| Community West Bancshares | 460 | 2.5x | 5.7x |
| Greene County Bancorp, Inc. | 406 | 2.6x | — |
| Global Indemnity Group, LLC | 397 | 0.8x | 0.8x |
| First Bank | 382 | 1.4x | 3.1x |
| Regional Management Corp. | 322 | 3.0x | 3.4x |
| Blue Ridge Bankshares, Inc. | 309 | 2.5x | — |
| MBIA Inc. | 291 | 44.6x | — |
| TWFG, Inc. Common Stock | 291 | 0.6x | 0.7x |
| Industry Median | 2.6x | 3.2x | |
| (*) Revenue | 251 | 113 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 643 | 364 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 49 | 49 | |
| Equity Value | 594 | 315 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 47 | 47 | |
| Fair Price | $13 | $7 | |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.