ON Semiconductor Corporation

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$103.20

Market Cap: $40.44B

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 01:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$39.74 – $109.60	$57.57	-44.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$38.45 – $95.34	$53.28	-48.4%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$62.62 – $111.98	$85.31	-17.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$53.56 – $100.38	$73.70	-28.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$6.54 – $14.62	$63.99	-38.0%
EV/EBITDA	$19.82 – $54.91	$38.47	-62.7%
EV/Revenue	$33.99 – $81.82	$58.64	-43.2%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$76.60 – $76.60	$76.60	-25.8%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$24.00 – $35.49	$28.74	-72.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$57.57

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-44.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ON Semiconductor Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to -2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 59, DIO 166). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $57.57 per share, suggesting ON is overvalued by 44.2% at the current price of $103.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.60%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,576	1,747	1,939	1,883	1,829	1,875
(−) Net Interest	78	86	96	93	90	93
(+) D&A	820	861	808	671	699	716
EBITDA	2,475	2,695	2,843	2,648	2,618	2,684

(−) Tax	208	231	256	249	242	248
(−) CapEx	695	771	855	831	807	827
(−) ΔWC	-442	209	235	-68	-67	-68
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,013	1,484	1,497	1,637	1,636	1,677

Terminal Value						27,508
WACC / Discount Rate	8.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,932	1,311	1,218	1,226	1,129	18,212

Enterprise Value	25,029
Projection Period	6,817	27.2%
Terminal Value	18,212	72.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	23,709
(/) Outstanding Shares	412

Fair Price	$57.57

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.6%	$72	$78	$86	$96	$110
7.6%	$60	$64	$69	$75	$83
8.6%	$51	$54	$58	$62	$66
9.6%	$45	$47	$49	$52	$55
10.6%	$40	$41	$43	$45	$47

Current price: $103.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$53.28

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-48.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ON Semiconductor Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to 2.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 59, DIO 166). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (51% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $53.28 per share, suggesting ON is overvalued by 48.4% at the current price of $103.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.60%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,576	1,747	1,939	1,883	1,829	1,794	1,778	1,779	1,797	1,834	1,879
(−) Net Interest	78	86	96	93	90	89	88	88	89	91	93
(+) D&A	820	861	808	671	699	792	811	814	800	792	812
EBITDA	2,475	2,695	2,843	2,648	2,618	2,675	2,677	2,681	2,686	2,716	2,784

(−) Tax	208	231	256	249	242	237	235	235	237	242	248
(−) CapEx	695	771	855	831	807	791	784	785	793	809	829
(−) ΔWC	-442	209	235	-68	-67	-43	-20	1	23	44	46
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,013	1,484	1,497	1,637	1,636	1,689	1,678	1,660	1,633	1,621	1,661

Terminal Value											27,246
WACC / Discount Rate	8.6%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,932	1,311	1,218	1,226	1,129	1,073	982	894	810	740	11,943

Enterprise Value	23,259
Projection Period	11,316	48.7%
Terminal Value	11,943	51.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320

Equity Value	21,939
(/) Outstanding Shares	412

Fair Price	$53.28

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.6%	$68	$73	$79	$86	$95
7.6%	$57	$60	$63	$68	$73
8.6%	$49	$51	$53	$56	$59
9.6%	$43	$44	$46	$48	$50
10.6%	$38	$39	$40	$42	$43

Current price: $103.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$85.32

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-17.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ON Semiconductor Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to -2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 59, DIO 166). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $85.31 per share, suggesting ON is overvalued by 17.3% at the current price of $103.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.60%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.68x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,576	1,747	1,939	1,883	1,829	1,875
(−) Net Interest	78	86	96	93	90	93
(+) D&A	820	861	808	671	699	716
EBITDA	2,475	2,695	2,843	2,648	2,618	2,684

(−) Tax	208	231	256	249	242	—
(−) CapEx	695	771	855	831	807	—
(−) ΔWC	-442	209	235	-68	-67	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,013	1,484	1,497	1,637	1,636	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						16.7x
Terminal Value						44,766
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,932	1,311	1,218	1,226	1,129	29,638

Enterprise Value	36,454
Projection Period	6,817	18.7%
Terminal Value	29,638	81.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	35,134
(÷) Outstanding Shares	412M
Fair Price	$85	-17.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
6.6%	$74	$84	$93	$103	$112
7.6%	$71	$80	$89	$98	$107
8.6%	$68	$77	$85	$94	$103
9.6%	$65	$74	$82	$90	$98
10.6%	$63	$71	$78	$86	$94

Current price: $103.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$73.71

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-28.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project ON Semiconductor Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to 2.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 59, DIO 166). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (64% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $73.70 per share, suggesting ON is overvalued by 28.6% at the current price of $103.20.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.60%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.68x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,576	1,747	1,939	1,883	1,829	1,794	1,778	1,779	1,797	1,834	1,879
(−) Net Interest	78	86	96	93	90	89	88	88	89	91	93
(+) D&A	820	861	808	671	699	792	811	814	800	792	812
EBITDA	2,475	2,695	2,843	2,648	2,618	2,675	2,677	2,681	2,686	2,716	2,784

(−) Tax	208	231	256	249	242	237	235	235	237	242	—
(−) CapEx	695	771	855	831	807	791	784	785	793	809	—
(−) ΔWC	-442	209	235	-68	-67	-43	-20	1	23	44	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,013	1,484	1,497	1,637	1,636	1,689	1,678	1,660	1,633	1,621	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											16.7x
Terminal Value											46,440
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,932	1,311	1,218	1,226	1,129	1,073	982	894	810	740	20,356

Enterprise Value	31,672
Projection Period	11,316	35.7%
Terminal Value	20,356	64.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	1,320
Equity Value	30,352
(÷) Outstanding Shares	412M
Fair Price	$74	-28.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
6.6%	$72	$79	$86	$93	$100
7.6%	$67	$73	$80	$86	$93
8.6%	$62	$68	$74	$80	$86
9.6%	$58	$63	$68	$74	$79
10.6%	$54	$58	$63	$68	$73

Current price: $103.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$63.99

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-38.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) has a fair value of $63.99 based on 9 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

P/E Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
ON Semiconductor CorporationON	42,498	355.9x	25.8x
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.GFS	41,242	46.6x	45.1x
United Microelectronics CorporationUMC	37,814	29.3x	—
Entegris, Inc.ENTG	22,709	96.2x	41.0x
Toast, Inc.TOST	17,032	52.5x	28.6x
SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.SSNC	16,930	22.3x	10.1x
Jacobs Solutions Inc.J	13,984	49.8x	17.0x
Tyler Technologies, Inc.TYL	13,961	46.0x	34.7x
CDW CorporationCDW	13,387	13.0x	10.6x
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.CHKP	11,979	11.9x	12.6x
Industry Median		46.0x	22.8x
(*) Profit after tax		121	1,648
Equity Value		5,564	47,141
(/) Outstanding shares		412	412
Fair Price		$14	$114

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$63.99

-38.0%

Fair Value

$38.47

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-62.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) has a fair value of $38.47 based on 9 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
ON Semiconductor CorporationON	42,498	49.3x	41.6x
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.GFS	41,242	18.5x	18.5x
United Microelectronics CorporationUMC	37,814	10.7x	—
Entegris, Inc.ENTG	22,709	31.1x	28.8x
Toast, Inc.TOST	17,032	42.3x	42.4x
SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.SSNC	16,930	10.0x	9.3x
Jacobs Solutions Inc.J	13,984	16.7x	18.5x
Tyler Technologies, Inc.TYL	13,961	26.9x	29.4x
CDW CorporationCDW	13,387	9.8x	9.9x
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.CHKP	11,979	13.2x	14.0x
Industry Median		16.7x	18.5x
(*) EBITDA		888	1,054
= Enterprise Value		14,814	19,509
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		13,494	18,189
(/) Outstanding shares		412	412
Fair Price		$33	$44

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.47

-62.7%

Fair Value

$58.64

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-43.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) has a fair value of $58.64 based on 10 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ON Semiconductor CorporationON	42,498	7.3x	6.2x
STMicroelectronics N.V.STM	49,684	4.1x	3.5x
GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.GFS	41,242	6.0x	6.1x
United Microelectronics CorporationUMC	37,814	4.9x	—
Entegris, Inc.ENTG	22,709	8.2x	7.6x
Toast, Inc.TOST	17,032	2.6x	2.6x
SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.SSNC	16,930	3.3x	3.1x
Jacobs Solutions Inc.J	13,984	1.3x	1.4x
Tyler Technologies, Inc.TYL	13,961	5.8x	6.4x
CDW CorporationCDW	13,387	0.9x	0.9x
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.CHKP	11,979	4.5x	4.7x
Industry Median		4.3x	3.5x
(*) Revenue		5,995	7,118
= Enterprise Value		25,770	25,166
(-) Net Debt		1,320	1,320
Equity Value		24,450	23,846
(/) Outstanding shares		412	412
Fair Price		$59	$58

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$58.64

-43.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$76.60

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-25.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $76.60 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.06. The current PEG ratio is 0.20.

PEG Ratio

0.20Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 33.7 ÷ 166.8% = 0.20

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	166.8%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.06
Fair Value	$76.60

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.29	—	—
FY2026E	$3.06	+956.5%	22
FY2027E	$4.23	+38.0%	23
FY2028E	$5.51	+30.2%	14

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 166.8%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$1.0B	$2.27	—
FY2022	$1.9B	$4.25	+87.2%
FY2023	$2.2B	$4.89	+15.1%
FY2024	$1.6B	$3.63	-25.8%
FY2025	$121.0M	$0.29	-92.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -40.2%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$28.74

Market Price

$103.20

Upside / Downside

-72.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.6% and normalized earnings of $1.1B, the company has a fair value of $28.74 per share. The EPV range is $24.00 – $35.49 based on WACC sensitivity (7.1% – 10.1%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,131	1,131	1,131
(/) WACC	10.1%	8.6%	7.1%
Enterprise Value	11,201	13,156	15,936
(-) Net debt	1,320	1,320	1,320
Equity Value	9,881	11,836	14,616
(/) Outstanding shares	412	412	412
Fair Price	$24.00	$28.74	$35.49

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.