Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.

NXDR

Communication ServicesInternet Content & InformationNYSE

$2.02

Market Cap: $783.01M

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 11:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.02 – $2.39	$0.28	-86.2%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.06 – $2.83	$0.45	-77.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.24 – $2.51	$0.42	-79.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.45

Market Price

$2.02

Upside / Downside

-77.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -27.9% to a target of 10.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.5%, Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) has an intrinsic value of $0.45 per share (range: $0.06 – $2.83).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	281	9.2%	-20.3%	-57	-57	6	(5)	2	-58	-56
2027	310	10.2%	-12.6%	-39	-39	6	(7)	3	-43	-39
2028	336	8.4%	-4.9%	-17	-17	7	(9)	3	-22	-19
2029	346	2.8%	2.8%	10	8	7	(11)	1	2	2
2030	365	5.6%	10.4%	38	30	7	(13)	2	22	16
2031	390	6.8%	10.4%	41	32	8	(16)	3	21	14
2032	414	6.1%	10.4%	43	34	8	(19)	3	20	13
2033	435	5.3%	10.4%	45	36	9	(22)	3	20	11
2034	455	4.5%	10.4%	47	37	9	(25)	2	19	10
2035	472	3.8%	10.4%	49	39	9	(28)	2	18	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-39

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)408

PV of Terminal Value206

Enterprise Value166

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value174

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
6.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
7.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.28

Market Price

$2.02

Upside / Downside

-86.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	281	9.2%	-20.3%	-57	-57	6	(6)	2	-60	-58
2027	310	10.2%	-12.6%	-39	-39	6	(10)	3	-46	-42
2028	336	8.4%	-4.9%	-17	-17	7	(14)	3	-27	-23
2029	346	2.8%	2.8%	10	8	7	(18)	1	-4	-3
2030	365	5.6%	10.4%	38	30	7	(22)	2	13	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-116

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)299

PV of Terminal Value216

Enterprise Value100

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value108

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.28

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
6.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$2
7.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$0	$1

Current price: $2.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.42

Market Price

$2.02

Upside / Downside

-79.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) has a fair value of $0.42 based on 3 comparable companies in the Internet Content & Information industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.NXDR	780	3.0x	2.7x
Boston Omaha CorporationBOC	347	3.7x	3.9x
The Beachbody Company, Inc.BODI	98	0.3x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	85	0.5x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		258	281
= Enterprise Value		119	187
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		127	195
(/) Outstanding shares		386	386
Fair Price		$0	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.42

-79.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.02 – $2.39

$0.28

-86.2%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.06 – $2.83

$0.45

-77.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.24 – $2.51

$0.42

-79.4%

DCF Analysis

Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.45

Market Price

$2.02

Upside / Downside

-77.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.9%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	281	9.2%	-20.3%	-57	-57	6	(5)	2	-58	-56
2027	310	10.2%	-12.6%	-39	-39	6	(7)	3	-43	-39
2028	336	8.4%	-4.9%	-17	-17	7	(9)	3	-22	-19
2029	346	2.8%	2.8%	10	8	7	(11)	1	2	2
2030	365	5.6%	10.4%	38	30	7	(13)	2	22	16
2031	390	6.8%	10.4%	41	32	8	(16)	3	21	14
2032	414	6.1%	10.4%	43	34	8	(19)	3	20	13
2033	435	5.3%	10.4%	45	36	9	(22)	3	20	11
2034	455	4.5%	10.4%	47	37	9	(25)	2	19	10
2035	472	3.8%	10.4%	49	39	9	(28)	2	18	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-39

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)408

PV of Terminal Value206

Enterprise Value166

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value174

(÷) Shares Outstanding386

Fair Value per Share$0.45

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
5.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
6.5%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
7.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
8.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1
9.5%	$-0	$-0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $2.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 12.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.42

Market Price

$2.02

Upside / Downside

-79.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Internet Content & Information

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.NXDR	780	3.0x	2.7x
Boston Omaha CorporationBOC	347	3.7x	3.9x
The Beachbody Company, Inc.BODI	98	0.3x	0.2x
Teads Holding Co.TEAD	85	0.5x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.5x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		258	281
= Enterprise Value		119	187
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		127	195
(/) Outstanding shares		386	386
Fair Price		$0	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.42

-79.4%