Natera, Inc.

NTRA

HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ

$195.32

Market Cap: $27.97B

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 15, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.70 – $68.31	$14.90	-92.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$8.38 – $154.83	$39.27	-81.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$55.79 – $114.11	$82.07	-60.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$39.27

Market Price

$195.32

Upside / Downside

-79.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -13.4% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.5%, Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has an intrinsic value of $39.27 per share (range: $8.38 – $154.83).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-216	-216	42	(134)	263	-570	-548
2027	3,195	19.7%	-2.7%	-87	-87	50	(164)	117	-317	-281
2028	3,799	18.9%	2.6%	100	79	60	(199)	134	-194	-159
2029	4,371	15.1%	8.0%	349	276	69	(233)	127	-16	-12
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.3%	671	530	79	(274)	147	189	131
2031	6,538	30.0%	13.3%	872	689	103	(364)	336	92	59
2032	8,284	26.7%	13.3%	1,105	873	131	(470)	389	145	85
2033	10,006	20.8%	13.3%	1,334	1,054	158	(578)	383	250	136
2034	11,492	14.9%	13.3%	1,533	1,211	181	(677)	331	384	192
2035	12,518	8.9%	13.3%	1,670	1,319	197	(751)	228	537	248

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-148

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)10,089

PV of Terminal Value4,656

Enterprise Value4,507

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value5,369

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$39.27

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.5%	$-8	$28	$70	$112	$155
7.5%	$-8	$19	$51	$83	$115
8.5%	$-7	$14	$39	$64	$89
9.5%	$-7	$11	$31	$52	$72
10.5%	$-7	$8	$26	$43	$60

Current price: $195.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$14.90

Market Price

$195.32

Upside / Downside

-92.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-216	-216	42	(137)	263	-573	-550
2027	3,195	19.7%	-2.7%	-87	-87	50	(171)	117	-324	-287
2028	3,799	18.9%	2.6%	100	79	60	(211)	134	-207	-169
2029	4,371	15.1%	8.0%	349	276	69	(253)	127	-36	-27
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.3%	671	530	79	(302)	147	161	112

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-921

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,024

PV of Terminal Value2,097

Enterprise Value1,175

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value2,037

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$14.90

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.5%	$-4	$4	$26	$47	$68
7.5%	$-4	$3	$19	$35	$52
8.5%	$-4	$2	$15	$28	$41
9.5%	$-4	$1	$12	$23	$34
10.5%	$-4	$1	$10	$19	$29

Current price: $195.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$82.97

Market Price

$195.32

Upside / Downside

-57.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Natera, Inc. (NTRA) has a fair value of $82.97 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Natera, Inc.NTRA	26,704	11.2x	9.4x
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedTEVA	36,807	2.9x	3.0x
IQVIA Holdings Inc.IQV	30,224	2.7x	2.6x
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.MTD	26,745	7.2x	6.9x
DexCom, Inc.DXCM	24,002	5.2x	4.7x
STERIS plcSTE	21,740	4.4x	4.4x
Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedDGX	21,187	2.5x	2.5x
Illumina, Inc.ILMN	20,223	4.9x	4.7x
Waters CorporationWAT	19,412	6.4x	3.1x
Industry Median		4.6x	3.8x
(*) Revenue		2,306	2,736
= Enterprise Value		10,692	10,273
(-) Net Debt		-862	-862
Equity Value		11,554	11,135
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$85	$81

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$82.97

-57.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.70 – $68.31

$14.90

-92.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$8.38 – $154.83

$39.27

-81.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$55.79 – $114.11

$82.07

-60.4%

DCF Analysis

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$39.27

Market Price

$195.32

Upside / Downside

-79.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.4%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	2,670	15.8%	-8.1%	-216	-216	42	(134)	263	-570	-548
2027	3,195	19.7%	-2.7%	-87	-87	50	(164)	117	-317	-281
2028	3,799	18.9%	2.6%	100	79	60	(199)	134	-194	-159
2029	4,371	15.1%	8.0%	349	276	69	(233)	127	-16	-12
2030	5,029	15.0%	13.3%	671	530	79	(274)	147	189	131
2031	6,538	30.0%	13.3%	872	689	103	(364)	336	92	59
2032	8,284	26.7%	13.3%	1,105	873	131	(470)	389	145	85
2033	10,006	20.8%	13.3%	1,334	1,054	158	(578)	383	250	136
2034	11,492	14.9%	13.3%	1,533	1,211	181	(677)	331	384	192
2035	12,518	8.9%	13.3%	1,670	1,319	197	(751)	228	537	248

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-148

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)10,089

PV of Terminal Value4,656

Enterprise Value4,507

(–) Net Debt-862

Equity Value5,369

(÷) Shares Outstanding137

Fair Value per Share$39.27

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.5%	$-8	$28	$70	$112	$155
7.5%	$-8	$19	$51	$83	$115
8.5%	$-7	$14	$39	$64	$89
9.5%	$-7	$11	$31	$52	$72
10.5%	$-7	$8	$26	$43	$60

Current price: $195.32. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$82.97

Market Price

$195.32

Upside / Downside

-57.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Diagnostics & Research

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Natera, Inc.NTRA	26,704	11.2x	9.4x
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedTEVA	36,807	2.9x	3.0x
IQVIA Holdings Inc.IQV	30,224	2.7x	2.6x
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.MTD	26,745	7.2x	6.9x
DexCom, Inc.DXCM	24,002	5.2x	4.7x
STERIS plcSTE	21,740	4.4x	4.4x
Quest Diagnostics IncorporatedDGX	21,187	2.5x	2.5x
Illumina, Inc.ILMN	20,223	4.9x	4.7x
Waters CorporationWAT	19,412	6.4x	3.1x
Industry Median		4.6x	3.8x
(*) Revenue		2,306	2,736
= Enterprise Value		10,692	10,273
(-) Net Debt		-862	-862
Equity Value		11,554	11,135
(/) Outstanding shares		137	137
Fair Price		$85	$81

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$82.97

-57.5%