Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Monroe Capital Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 47.1% to -10.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 258, DPO 132, DIO 60). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $0.72 per share, suggesting MRCC is overvalued by 85.8% at the current price of $5.08.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -10 | -10 | -9 | -8 | -8 | -8 |
| (−) Net Interest | 20 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 16 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EBITDA | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (−) CapEx | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (−) ΔWC | -1 | 1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 10 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Terminal Value | 237 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.6% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.5% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 164 |
| Enterprise Value | 204 | |||||
| Projection Period | 40 | 19.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 164 | 80.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 189 | |||||
| Equity Value | 16 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 22 | |||||
| Fair Price | $0.72 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $4 | $6 | $10 | $15 | $25 |
| 6.6% | $1 | $2 | $4 | $6 | $9 |
| 7.6% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $2 | $3 |
| 8.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 9.6% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Current price: $5.08. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC) has a fair value of $2.27 based on 3 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe Capital CorporationMRCC | 110 | 9.6x | 531.7x |
| WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | 169 | 12.2x | 7.7x |
| ArrowMark Financial Corp. | 152 | 8.5x | 12.3x |
| BCP Investment Corporation | 86 | 7.6x | 2.5x |
| Industry Median | 8.5x | 7.7x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 11 | 0 | |
| Equity Value | 97 | 2 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 22 | 22 | |
| Fair Price | $4 | $0 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Monroe Capital Corporation (MRCC) has a fair value of $9.68 based on 6 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe Capital CorporationMRCC | 110 | 14.1x | 4.8x |
| Innventure, Inc. | 253 | 110.0x | 180.9x |
| WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | 169 | 12.2x | 4.6x |
| ArrowMark Financial Corp. | 152 | 10.0x | 11.0x |
| BCP Investment Corporation | 86 | 9.8x | 5.1x |
| OFS Credit Company, Inc. | 86 | 4.6x | 7.8x |
| Fold Holdings Inc | 62 | 1.7x | 26.4x |
| Industry Median | 9.9x | 9.4x | |
| (*) Revenue | 21 | 63 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 210 | 587 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 189 | 189 | |
| Equity Value | 21 | 398 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 22 | 22 | |
| Fair Price | $1 | $18 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 18.6% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $4.24 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $0.53.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -23.0% |
| Dividend Yield | +18.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $0.53 |
| Fair Value | $4.24 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $32.5M | $1.51 | — |
| FY2022 | $-2.8M | $-0.13 | -108.6% |
| FY2023 | $371,000 | $0.02 | — |
| FY2024 | $9.7M | $0.45 | +2531.6% |
| FY2025 | $11.4M | $0.53 | +17.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -23.0%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.4% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $26.46 per share. The DDM range is $17.99 – $40.72 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.93 | 176.7% | — |
| 2024 | — | 0.0% | — |
| 2023 | — | 0.0% | — |
| 2022 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | — | 0.0% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.07 | 15.0% | 0.9143 | $0.98 |
| 2027 | $1.23 | 15.0% | 0.8359 | $1.03 |
| 2028 | $1.41 | 15.0% | 0.7642 | $1.08 |
| 2029 | $1.63 | 15.0% | 0.6987 | $1.14 |
| 2030 | $1.87 | 15.0% | 0.6388 | $1.19 |
| Terminal Value | $1.94 DPS | 3.5% | $21.04 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 13.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $37 | $39 | $41 | $41 | $41 |
| 8.4% | $30 | $31 | $32 | $32 | $32 |
| 9.4% | $24 | $25 | $26 | $26 | $26 |
| 10.4% | $21 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 |
| 11.4% | $18 | $19 | $19 | $19 | $19 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.