Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.

MLM

Basic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsNYSE

$590.38

Market Cap: $35.45B

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 16:06

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$151.60 – $575.95	$256.43	-56.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$175.69 – $610.03	$284.33	-51.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$272.31 – $601.16	$423.24	-28.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$262.36 – $618.34	$414.61	-29.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$387.56 – $744.39	$422.03	-28.5%
EV/EBITDA	$261.03 – $519.69	$369.23	-37.5%
EV/Revenue	$217.22 – $498.71	$299.91	-49.2%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$267.05 – $267.05	$267.05	-54.8%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$74.75 – $144.97	$103.59	-82.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$48.99 – $109.67	$69.75	-88.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$256.43

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-56.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 4.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $256.43 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 56.6% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,659
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	258
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	822
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,738

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	337
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	938
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	92
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,371

Terminal Value						23,222
WACC / Discount Rate	8.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	15,511

Enterprise Value	20,770
Projection Period	5,259	25.3%
Terminal Value	15,511	74.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256

Equity Value	15,514
(/) Outstanding Shares	61

Fair Price	$256.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.4%	$343	$381	$429	$492	$576
7.4%	$270	$295	$325	$362	$408
8.4%	$219	$236	$256	$280	$309
9.4%	$181	$193	$208	$224	$243
10.4%	$152	$161	$171	$183	$197

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$284.33

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-51.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (58% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $284.33 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 51.8% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,692	1,764	1,833	1,899	1,962	2,011
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	263	274	285	295	305	312
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	823	870	915	956	996	1,021
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,778	2,908	3,033	3,150	3,263	3,344

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	344	358	372	386	399	409
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	957	998	1,037	1,074	1,110	1,138
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	88	85	83	79	75	77
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,390	1,466	1,541	1,611	1,679	1,721

Terminal Value											29,153
WACC / Discount Rate	8.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	891	868	841	811	780	13,007

Enterprise Value	22,458
Projection Period	9,451	42.1%
Terminal Value	13,007	57.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256

Equity Value	17,202
(/) Outstanding Shares	61

Fair Price	$284.33

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.4%	$395	$431	$475	$533	$610
7.4%	$312	$334	$360	$392	$433
8.4%	$253	$268	$284	$304	$328
9.4%	$209	$219	$231	$244	$259
10.4%	$176	$183	$191	$200	$210

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$423.28

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-28.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 4.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $423.24 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 28.3% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,659
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	258
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	822
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,738

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	—
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	—
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						14.0x
Terminal Value						38,334
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	25,606

Enterprise Value	30,864
Projection Period	5,259	17.0%
Terminal Value	25,606	83.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256
Equity Value	25,608
(÷) Outstanding Shares	61M
Fair Price	$423	-28.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
6.4%	$336	$402	$468	$535	$601
7.4%	$319	$382	$445	$509	$572
8.4%	$302	$363	$423	$484	$544
9.4%	$287	$345	$402	$460	$518
10.4%	$272	$327	$383	$438	$493

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$414.63

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-29.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $414.61 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 29.8% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,692	1,764	1,833	1,899	1,962	2,011
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	263	274	285	295	305	312
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	823	870	915	956	996	1,021
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,778	2,908	3,033	3,150	3,263	3,344

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	344	358	372	386	399	—
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	957	998	1,037	1,074	1,110	—
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	88	85	83	79	75	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,390	1,466	1,541	1,611	1,679	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											14.0x
Terminal Value											46,821
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	891	868	841	811	780	20,891

Enterprise Value	30,341
Projection Period	9,451	31.1%
Terminal Value	20,891	68.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256
Equity Value	25,085
(÷) Outstanding Shares	61M
Fair Price	$415	-29.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
6.4%	$381	$440	$499	$559	$618
7.4%	$347	$401	$455	$509	$563
8.4%	$316	$365	$415	$464	$513
9.4%	$288	$333	$378	$423	$468
10.4%	$262	$303	$345	$386	$427

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$422.03

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-28.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) has a fair value of $422.03 based on 10 comparable companies in the Construction Materials industry.

P/E Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	31.4x	34.3x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	40.0x	45.1x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	50.7x	24.3x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	20.6x	18.4x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	30.3x	15.9x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	15.1x	13.3x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	39.6x	42.9x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	11.3x	7.7x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	35.6x	34.4x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	24.7x	19.0x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	21.4x	19.1x
Industry Median		27.5x	19.0x
(*) Profit after tax		1,137	1,041
Equity Value		31,249	19,816
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$517	$328

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$422.03

-28.5%

Fair Value

$369.23

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-37.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) has a fair value of $369.23 based on 10 comparable companies in the Construction Materials industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	19.0x	19.0x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	30.3x	32.2x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	17.0x	16.7x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	9.8x	9.7x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	13.8x	11.8x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	9.3x	8.1x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	27.2x	28.9x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	7.9x	5.4x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	16.6x	16.5x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	11.8x	11.2x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	14.2x	11.4x
Industry Median		14.0x	11.6x
(*) EBITDA		2,154	2,157
= Enterprise Value		30,154	25,035
(-) Net Debt		5,256	5,256
Equity Value		24,898	19,779
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$412	$327

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$369.23

-37.5%

Fair Value

$299.91

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-49.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) has a fair value of $299.91 based on 10 comparable companies in the Construction Materials industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	6.3x	6.3x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	24.9x	26.4x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	3.0x	3.0x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	5.4x	5.4x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	1.7x	1.5x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	0.9x	0.8x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	23.9x	25.4x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	4.8x	3.3x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	5.4x	5.4x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	2.8x	2.7x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	3.3x	2.6x
Industry Median		4.0x	3.1x
(*) Revenue		6,544	6,554
= Enterprise Value		26,457	20,343
(-) Net Debt		5,256	5,256
Equity Value		21,201	15,087
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$350	$249

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$299.91

-49.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$267.05

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-54.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 13.8% plus 0.6% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $267.05 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $19.35. The current PEG ratio is 2.21.

PEG Ratio

2.21Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 30.5 ÷ (13.2% + 0.6%) = 2.21

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	13.2%
Dividend Yield	+0.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	13.8%
Fair P/E	13.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$19.35
Fair Value	$267.05

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$18.80	—	—
FY2026E	$19.35	+2.9%	13
FY2027E	$23.09	+19.3%	15
FY2028E	$27.30	+18.3%	8

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 13.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$702.5M	$11.22	—
FY2022	$867.0M	$13.87	+23.6%
FY2023	$1.2B	$18.82	+35.7%
FY2024	$2.0B	$32.41	+72.2%
FY2025	$1.1B	$18.80	-42.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 13.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$103.59

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-82.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.4% and normalized earnings of $968.5M, the company has a fair value of $103.59 per share. The EPV range is $74.75 – $144.97 based on WACC sensitivity (6.9% – 9.9%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	969	969	969
(/) WACC	9.9%	8.4%	6.9%
Enterprise Value	9,778	11,523	14,027
(-) Net debt	5,256	5,256	5,256
Equity Value	4,522	6,267	8,771
(/) Outstanding shares	61	61	61
Fair Price	$74.75	$103.59	$144.97

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$69.75

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-88.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.1% and projected dividend growth of 10.3%, the fair value is $69.75 per share. The DDM range is $48.99 – $109.67 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.26

Dividend Yield

0.56%

Payout Ratio

17.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.77x

FCF Payout Ratio20.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)8.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.26	17.3%	+6.1%
2024	$3.07	9.5%	+9.5%
2023	$2.80	14.9%	+9.5%
2022	$2.56	18.5%	+8.4%
2021	$2.36	21.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.59	10.3%	0.9162	$3.29
2027	$3.96	10.3%	0.8394	$3.33
2028	$4.37	10.3%	0.7691	$3.36
2029	$4.82	10.3%	0.7046	$3.40
2030	$5.32	10.3%	0.6456	$3.43
Terminal Value	$5.45 DPS	2.5%		$52.94

PV of Projected Dividends$16.81

PV of Terminal Value$52.94

Fair Value per Share$69.75

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	8.3%	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%	12.3%
7.1%	$93	$97	$101	$105	$110
8.1%	$76	$79	$83	$86	$90
9.1%	$64	$67	$70	$73	$76
10.1%	$56	$58	$60	$63	$65
11.1%	$49	$51	$53	$55	$57

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 16:06

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$151.60 – $575.95	$256.43	-56.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$175.69 – $610.03	$284.33	-51.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$272.31 – $601.16	$423.24	-28.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$262.36 – $618.34	$414.61	-29.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$387.56 – $744.39	$422.03	-28.5%
EV/EBITDA	$261.03 – $519.69	$369.23	-37.5%
EV/Revenue	$217.22 – $498.71	$299.91	-49.2%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$267.05 – $267.05	$267.05	-54.8%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$74.75 – $144.97	$103.59	-82.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$48.99 – $109.67	$69.75	-88.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$256.43

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-56.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,659
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	258
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	822
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,738

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	337
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	938
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	92
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,371

Terminal Value						23,222
WACC / Discount Rate	8.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	15,511

Enterprise Value	20,770
Projection Period	5,259	25.3%
Terminal Value	15,511	74.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256

Equity Value	15,514
(/) Outstanding Shares	61

Fair Price	$256.43

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.4%	$343	$381	$429	$492	$576
7.4%	$270	$295	$325	$362	$408
8.4%	$219	$236	$256	$280	$309
9.4%	$181	$193	$208	$224	$243
10.4%	$152	$161	$171	$183	$197

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$284.33

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-51.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,692	1,764	1,833	1,899	1,962	2,011
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	263	274	285	295	305	312
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	823	870	915	956	996	1,021
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,778	2,908	3,033	3,150	3,263	3,344

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	344	358	372	386	399	409
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	957	998	1,037	1,074	1,110	1,138
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	88	85	83	79	75	77
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,390	1,466	1,541	1,611	1,679	1,721

Terminal Value											29,153
WACC / Discount Rate	8.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	891	868	841	811	780	13,007

Enterprise Value	22,458
Projection Period	9,451	42.1%
Terminal Value	13,007	57.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256

Equity Value	17,202
(/) Outstanding Shares	61

Fair Price	$284.33

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.4%	$395	$431	$475	$533	$610
7.4%	$312	$334	$360	$392	$433
8.4%	$253	$268	$284	$304	$328
9.4%	$209	$219	$231	$244	$259
10.4%	$176	$183	$191	$200	$210

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$423.28

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-28.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 4.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $423.24 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 28.3% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,659
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	258
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	822
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,738

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	—
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	—
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						14.0x
Terminal Value						38,334
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	25,606

Enterprise Value	30,864
Projection Period	5,259	17.0%
Terminal Value	25,606	83.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256
Equity Value	25,608
(÷) Outstanding Shares	61M
Fair Price	$423	-28.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
6.4%	$336	$402	$468	$535	$601
7.4%	$319	$382	$445	$509	$572
8.4%	$302	$363	$423	$484	$544
9.4%	$287	$345	$402	$460	$518
10.4%	$272	$327	$383	$438	$493

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$414.63

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-29.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 3.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 29, DIO 77). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.0x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $414.61 per share, suggesting MLM is overvalued by 29.8% at the current price of $590.38.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.40%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

14.00x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,278	1,366	1,472	1,544	1,618	1,692	1,764	1,833	1,899	1,962	2,011
(−) Net Interest	198	212	229	240	251	263	274	285	295	305	312
(+) D&A	643	703	762	798	802	823	870	915	956	996	1,021
EBITDA	2,120	2,282	2,462	2,581	2,671	2,778	2,908	3,033	3,150	3,263	3,344

(−) Tax	260	278	299	314	329	344	358	372	386	399	—
(−) CapEx	723	773	833	873	915	957	998	1,037	1,074	1,110	—
(−) ΔWC	-278	105	126	85	89	88	85	83	79	75	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,415	1,126	1,204	1,309	1,338	1,390	1,466	1,541	1,611	1,679	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											14.0x
Terminal Value											46,821
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,359	998	984	987	930	891	868	841	811	780	20,891

Enterprise Value	30,341
Projection Period	9,451	31.1%
Terminal Value	20,891	68.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,256
Equity Value	25,085
(÷) Outstanding Shares	61M
Fair Price	$415	-29.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	10.0x	12.0x	14.0x	16.0x	18.0x
6.4%	$381	$440	$499	$559	$618
7.4%	$347	$401	$455	$509	$563
8.4%	$316	$365	$415	$464	$513
9.4%	$288	$333	$378	$423	$468
10.4%	$262	$303	$345	$386	$427

Current price: $590.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$422.03

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-28.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	31.4x	34.3x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	40.0x	45.1x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	50.7x	24.3x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	20.6x	18.4x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	30.3x	15.9x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	15.1x	13.3x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	39.6x	42.9x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	11.3x	7.7x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	35.6x	34.4x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	24.7x	19.0x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	21.4x	19.1x
Industry Median		27.5x	19.0x
(*) Profit after tax		1,137	1,041
Equity Value		31,249	19,816
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$517	$328

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$422.03

-28.5%

Fair Value

$369.23

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-37.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	19.0x	19.0x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	30.3x	32.2x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	17.0x	16.7x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	9.8x	9.7x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	13.8x	11.8x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	9.3x	8.1x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	27.2x	28.9x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	7.9x	5.4x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	16.6x	16.5x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	11.8x	11.2x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	14.2x	11.4x
Industry Median		14.0x	11.6x
(*) EBITDA		2,154	2,157
= Enterprise Value		30,154	25,035
(-) Net Debt		5,256	5,256
Equity Value		24,898	19,779
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$412	$327

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$369.23

-37.5%

Fair Value

$299.91

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-49.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Construction Materials

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.MLM	35,718	6.3x	6.3x
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.WPM	59,736	24.9x	26.4x
Corteva, Inc.CTVA	54,261	3.0x	3.0x
AngloGold Ashanti PlcAU	54,051	5.4x	5.4x
Nucor CorporationNUE	51,819	1.7x	1.5x
ArcelorMittal S.A.MT	47,220	0.9x	0.8x
Franco-Nevada CorporationFNV	44,751	23.9x	25.4x
Gold Fields LimitedGFI	40,151	4.8x	3.3x
Vulcan Materials CompanyVMC	37,490	5.4x	5.4x
Amrize LtdAMRZ	29,234	2.8x	2.7x
James Hardie Industries plcJHX	12,172	3.3x	2.6x
Industry Median		4.0x	3.1x
(*) Revenue		6,544	6,554
= Enterprise Value		26,457	20,343
(-) Net Debt		5,256	5,256
Equity Value		21,201	15,087
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$350	$249

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$299.91

-49.2%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$267.05

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-54.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

2.21Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 30.5 ÷ (13.2% + 0.6%) = 2.21

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	13.2%
Dividend Yield	+0.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	13.8%
Fair P/E	13.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$19.35
Fair Value	$267.05

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$18.80	—	—
FY2026E	$19.35	+2.9%	13
FY2027E	$23.09	+19.3%	15
FY2028E	$27.30	+18.3%	8

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 13.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$702.5M	$11.22	—
FY2022	$867.0M	$13.87	+23.6%
FY2023	$1.2B	$18.82	+35.7%
FY2024	$2.0B	$32.41	+72.2%
FY2025	$1.1B	$18.80	-42.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 13.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$103.59

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-82.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	969	969	969
(/) WACC	9.9%	8.4%	6.9%
Enterprise Value	9,778	11,523	14,027
(-) Net debt	5,256	5,256	5,256
Equity Value	4,522	6,267	8,771
(/) Outstanding shares	61	61	61
Fair Price	$74.75	$103.59	$144.97

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$69.75

Market Price

$590.38

Upside / Downside

-88.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.26

Dividend Yield

0.56%

Payout Ratio

17.3%

Dividend Coverage

5.77x

FCF Payout Ratio20.1%

DPS CAGR (4Y)8.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.26	17.3%	+6.1%
2024	$3.07	9.5%	+9.5%
2023	$2.80	14.9%	+9.5%
2022	$2.56	18.5%	+8.4%
2021	$2.36	21.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.59	10.3%	0.9162	$3.29
2027	$3.96	10.3%	0.8394	$3.33
2028	$4.37	10.3%	0.7691	$3.36
2029	$4.82	10.3%	0.7046	$3.40
2030	$5.32	10.3%	0.6456	$3.43
Terminal Value	$5.45 DPS	2.5%		$52.94

PV of Projected Dividends$16.81

PV of Terminal Value$52.94

Fair Value per Share$69.75

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	8.3%	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%	12.3%
7.1%	$93	$97	$101	$105	$110
8.1%	$76	$79	$83	$86	$90
9.1%	$64	$67	$70	$73	$76
10.1%	$56	$58	$60	$63	$65
11.1%	$49	$51	$53	$55	$57