MediaCo Holding Inc.

MDIA

Communication ServicesBroadcastingNASDAQ

$0.93

Market Cap: $49.75M

MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.03 – $4.03	$0.50	-32.3%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.18 – $9.02	$2.43	+231.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.17 – $1.48	$0.71	-2.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$0.93

Upside / Downside

+160.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -20.0% to a target of 10.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 10.6%, MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) has an intrinsic value of $2.43 per share (range: $0.18 – $9.02).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-20.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

10.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.1%

D&A/Revenue

4.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	173	30.0%	-13.9%	-24	-24	8	(5)	15	-36	-34
2027	222	28.1%	-7.8%	-17	-17	10	(7)	4	-19	-16
2028	278	25.3%	-1.8%	-5	-5	13	(11)	5	-7	-6
2029	341	22.5%	4.3%	15	12	16	(15)	5	8	5
2030	408	19.8%	10.4%	43	34	19	(19)	6	28	18
2031	478	16.9%	10.4%	50	39	22	(25)	6	31	18
2032	545	14.2%	10.4%	57	45	26	(31)	6	34	18
2033	607	11.4%	10.4%	63	50	29	(37)	5	36	17
2034	659	8.6%	10.4%	69	54	31	(43)	5	37	16
2035	698	5.8%	10.4%	73	57	33	(49)	3	38	14

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)50

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)511

PV of Terminal Value196

Enterprise Value246

(–) Net Debt53

Equity Value193

(÷) Shares Outstanding79

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
8.6%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$9
9.6%	$-1	$1	$3	$5	$7
10.6%	$-1	$1	$2	$4	$6
11.6%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5
12.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4

Current price: $0.93. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.50

Market Price

$0.93

Upside / Downside

-46.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-20.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

10.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.1%

D&A/Revenue

4.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	171	28.6%	-13.9%	-24	-24	8	(6)	15	-36	-35
2027	212	23.5%	-7.8%	-17	-17	10	(9)	3	-19	-16
2028	251	18.4%	-1.8%	-4	-4	12	(13)	3	-9	-7
2029	284	13.2%	4.3%	12	10	13	(17)	3	3	2
2030	307	8.1%	10.4%	32	25	14	(22)	2	16	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-46

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)217

PV of Terminal Value138

Enterprise Value92

(–) Net Debt53

Equity Value39

(÷) Shares Outstanding79

Fair Value per Share$0.50

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
8.6%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$4
9.6%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
10.6%	$-1	$-0	$1	$1	$2
11.6%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2
12.6%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $0.93. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.71

Market Price

$0.93

Upside / Downside

-23.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) has a fair value of $0.71 based on 8 comparable companies in the Broadcasting industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Broadcasting

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MediaCo Holding Inc.MDIA	74	1.0x	—
Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common SharesKYIV	2,376	2.1x	2.0x
PodcastOne, Inc.PODC	58	1.1x	1.3x
LiveOne, Inc.LVO	57	0.5x	0.5x
MoneyHero Limited Class A Ordinary SharesMNY	53	0.1x	0.1x
Reading International, Inc.RDI	38	1.2x	1.1x
BuzzFeed, Inc.BZFD	24	0.5x	0.3x
NIP Group Inc.NIPG	20	0.4x	0.3x
Urban One, Inc.UONE	16	1.3x	—
Industry Median		0.8x	0.5x
(*) Revenue		133
= Enterprise Value		109
(-) Net Debt		53
Equity Value		57
(/) Outstanding shares		79
Fair Price		$1

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.03 – $4.03

$0.50

-32.3%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.18 – $9.02

$2.43

+231.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.17 – $1.48

$0.71

-2.7%

DCF Analysis

MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.43

Market Price

$0.93

Upside / Downside

+160.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-20.0%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

10.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.1%

D&A/Revenue

4.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	173	30.0%	-13.9%	-24	-24	8	(5)	15	-36	-34
2027	222	28.1%	-7.8%	-17	-17	10	(7)	4	-19	-16
2028	278	25.3%	-1.8%	-5	-5	13	(11)	5	-7	-6
2029	341	22.5%	4.3%	15	12	16	(15)	5	8	5
2030	408	19.8%	10.4%	43	34	19	(19)	6	28	18
2031	478	16.9%	10.4%	50	39	22	(25)	6	31	18
2032	545	14.2%	10.4%	57	45	26	(31)	6	34	18
2033	607	11.4%	10.4%	63	50	29	(37)	5	36	17
2034	659	8.6%	10.4%	69	54	31	(43)	5	37	16
2035	698	5.8%	10.4%	73	57	33	(49)	3	38	14

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)50

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)511

PV of Terminal Value196

Enterprise Value246

(–) Net Debt53

Equity Value193

(÷) Shares Outstanding79

Fair Value per Share$2.43

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
8.6%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$9
9.6%	$-1	$1	$3	$5	$7
10.6%	$-1	$1	$2	$4	$6
11.6%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5
12.6%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4

Current price: $0.93. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 8.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.71

Market Price

$0.93

Upside / Downside

-23.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), MediaCo Holding Inc. (MDIA) has a fair value of $0.71 based on 8 comparable companies in the Broadcasting industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Broadcasting

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MediaCo Holding Inc.MDIA	74	1.0x	—
Kyivstar Group Ltd. Common SharesKYIV	2,376	2.1x	2.0x
PodcastOne, Inc.PODC	58	1.1x	1.3x
LiveOne, Inc.LVO	57	0.5x	0.5x
MoneyHero Limited Class A Ordinary SharesMNY	53	0.1x	0.1x
Reading International, Inc.RDI	38	1.2x	1.1x
BuzzFeed, Inc.BZFD	24	0.5x	0.3x
NIP Group Inc.NIPG	20	0.4x	0.3x
Urban One, Inc.UONE	16	1.3x	—
Industry Median		0.8x	0.5x
(*) Revenue		133
= Enterprise Value		109
(-) Net Debt		53
Equity Value		57
(/) Outstanding shares		79
Fair Price		$1