Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.

HealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesNYSE

$23.51

Market Cap: $1.93B

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$19.76 – $73.95	$32.31	+49.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$19.18 – $64.77	$29.94	+38.0%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$18.35 – $42.62	$29.47	+35.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$18.96 – $42.88	$29.19	+34.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$18.08 – $95.59	$31.41	+44.8%
EV/EBITDA	$26.66 – $47.19	$34.78	+60.3%
EV/Revenue	$20.16 – $34.06	$29.24	+34.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$17.88 – $17.88	$17.88	-17.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$17.75 – $27.36	$21.66	-0.1%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	—	N/A	—

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$32.31

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+37.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.7% to 0.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 9, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $32.31 per share, suggesting MD is undervalued by 37.4% at the current price of $23.51.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.08%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	177	182	190	204	204	209
(−) Net Interest	45	46	48	52	52	53
(+) D&A	27	26	26	25	26	27
EBITDA	249	254	264	281	282	290

(−) Tax	39	40	42	46	46	47
(−) CapEx	27	27	29	31	31	32
(−) ΔWC	275	13	23	38	0	0
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-92	173	170	166	206	211

Terminal Value						3,781
WACC / Discount Rate	8.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-88	154	140	126	145	2,563

Enterprise Value	3,040
Projection Period	477	15.7%
Terminal Value	2,563	84.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	285

Equity Value	2,755
(/) Outstanding Shares	85

Fair Price	$32.31

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.1%	$43	$48	$54	$62	$74
7.1%	$34	$37	$41	$45	$51
8.1%	$28	$30	$32	$35	$39
9.1%	$23	$25	$26	$28	$31
10.1%	$20	$21	$22	$24	$25

Current price: $23.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$29.94

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+27.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.7% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 9, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (63% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $29.94 per share, suggesting MD is undervalued by 27.3% at the current price of $23.51.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.08%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	177	182	190	204	204	205	208	211	215	220	226
(−) Net Interest	45	46	48	52	52	52	53	53	54	56	57
(+) D&A	27	26	26	25	26	29	30	31	31	31	32
EBITDA	249	254	264	281	282	286	290	295	300	308	315

(−) Tax	39	40	42	46	46	46	46	47	48	49	50
(−) CapEx	27	27	29	31	31	31	31	32	32	33	34
(−) ΔWC	275	13	23	38	0	3	6	9	11	15	15
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	-92	173	170	166	206	207	207	207	209	211	216

Terminal Value											3,867
WACC / Discount Rate	8.1%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-88	154	140	126	145	135	125	116	108	101	1,777

Enterprise Value	2,838
Projection Period	1,061	37.4%
Terminal Value	1,777	62.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	285

Equity Value	2,553
(/) Outstanding Shares	85

Fair Price	$29.94

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.1%	$41	$45	$50	$56	$65
7.1%	$33	$35	$38	$41	$45
8.1%	$27	$28	$30	$32	$34
9.1%	$22	$23	$25	$26	$27
10.1%	$19	$20	$21	$22	$23

Current price: $23.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$29.47

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+25.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.7% to 0.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 9, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (83% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $29.47 per share, suggesting MD is undervalued by 25.4% at the current price of $23.51.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.08%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.82x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	177	182	190	204	204	209
(−) Net Interest	45	46	48	52	52	53
(+) D&A	27	26	26	25	26	27
EBITDA	249	254	264	281	282	290

(−) Tax	39	40	42	46	46	—
(−) CapEx	27	27	29	31	31	—
(−) ΔWC	275	13	23	38	0	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-92	173	170	166	206	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.8x
Terminal Value						3,422
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-88	154	140	126	145	2,320

Enterprise Value	2,798
Projection Period	477	17.1%
Terminal Value	2,320	82.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	285
Equity Value	2,512
(÷) Outstanding Shares	85M
Fair Price	$29	+25.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.8x	9.8x	11.8x	13.8x	15.8x
6.1%	$22	$27	$33	$38	$43
7.1%	$21	$26	$31	$36	$41
8.1%	$20	$25	$29	$34	$39
9.1%	$19	$24	$28	$32	$37
10.1%	$18	$23	$27	$31	$35

Current price: $23.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$29.18

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+24.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.7% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 52, DPO 9, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.8x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $29.19 per share, suggesting MD is undervalued by 24.1% at the current price of $23.51.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.08%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.82x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	177	182	190	204	204	205	208	211	215	220	226
(−) Net Interest	45	46	48	52	52	52	53	53	54	56	57
(+) D&A	27	26	26	25	26	29	30	31	31	31	32
EBITDA	249	254	264	281	282	286	290	295	300	308	315

(−) Tax	39	40	42	46	46	46	46	47	48	49	—
(−) CapEx	27	27	29	31	31	31	31	32	32	33	—
(−) ΔWC	275	13	23	38	0	3	6	9	11	15	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	-92	173	170	166	206	207	207	207	209	211	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.8x
Terminal Value											3,726
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	-88	154	140	126	145	135	125	116	108	101	1,712

Enterprise Value	2,773
Projection Period	1,061	38.2%
Terminal Value	1,712	61.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	285
Equity Value	2,488
(÷) Outstanding Shares	85M
Fair Price	$29	+24.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.8x	9.8x	11.8x	13.8x	15.8x
6.1%	$26	$31	$35	$39	$43
7.1%	$24	$28	$32	$36	$39
8.1%	$22	$26	$29	$33	$36
9.1%	$21	$24	$27	$30	$33
10.1%	$19	$22	$25	$27	$30

Current price: $23.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$31.41

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+33.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) has a fair value of $31.41 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

P/E Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.MD	2,005	12.1x	11.3x
National HealthCare CorporationNHC	2,551	21.4x	30.1x
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN	2,435	49.3x	198.8x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,031	13.9x	11.3x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	17.9x	17.9x
Organon & Co.OGN	1,575	8.4x	1.7x
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.AVAH	1,412	6.2x	—
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	1,304	56.5x	21.2x
Ardent Health Partners, LLCARDT	1,282	9.3x	7.4x
Industry Median		15.9x	17.9x
(*) Profit after tax		165	178
Equity Value		2,632	2,725
(/) Outstanding shares		85	85
Fair Price		$31	$32

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$31.41

+33.6%

Fair Value

$34.78

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+47.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) has a fair value of $34.78 based on 9 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.MD	2,005	8.3x	8.4x
National HealthCare CorporationNHC	2,551	11.8x	11.9x
LifeStance Health Group, Inc.LFST	2,495	31.0x	35.6x
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN	2,435	21.7x	25.7x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,031	10.8x	8.6x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	12.2x	15.1x
Organon & Co.OGN	1,575	7.6x	7.7x
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.AVAH	1,412	9.3x	11.3x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	1,304	15.7x	12.5x
Ardent Health Partners, LLCARDT	1,282	5.9x	6.4x
Industry Median		11.8x	11.9x
(*) EBITDA		274	273
= Enterprise Value		3,242	3,259
(-) Net Debt		285	285
Equity Value		2,957	2,974
(/) Outstanding shares		85	85
Fair Price		$35	$35

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$34.78

+47.9%

Fair Value

$29.24

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

+24.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) has a fair value of $29.24 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.MD	2,005	1.2x	1.2x
National HealthCare CorporationNHC	2,551	1.7x	1.7x
LifeStance Health Group, Inc.LFST	2,495	1.7x	2.0x
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN	2,435	1.7x	2.0x
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.ACHC	2,297	1.5x	1.5x
Select Medical Holdings CorporationSEM	2,031	1.0x	0.8x
Addus HomeCare CorporationADUS	1,743	1.3x	1.6x
Organon & Co.OGN	1,575	1.6x	1.6x
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.AVAH	1,412	1.1x	1.3x
Astrana Health, Inc.ASTH	1,304	0.6x	0.5x
Ardent Health Partners, LLCARDT	1,282	0.4x	0.5x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		1,914	1,905
= Enterprise Value		2,650	2,906
(-) Net Debt		285	285
Equity Value		2,365	2,621
(/) Outstanding shares		85	85
Fair Price		$28	$31

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$29.24

+24.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$17.88

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

-23.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0%, the company has a fair value of $17.88 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $2.24. The current PEG ratio is 1.79.

PEG Ratio

1.79Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ Growth = 9.7 ÷ 5.4% = 1.79

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	5.4%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$2.24
Fair Value	$17.88

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.94	—	—
FY2026E	$2.24	+15.2%	6
FY2027E	$2.33	+4.1%	5
FY2028E	$2.27	-2.3%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 5.4%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$131.0M	$1.52	—
FY2022	$66.3M	$0.79	-48.0%
FY2023	$-60.4M	$-0.73	-192.4%
FY2024	$-99.1M	$-1.19	—
FY2025	$165.4M	$1.94	—

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 6.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$21.66

Market Price

$23.51

Upside / Downside

-7.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.1% and normalized earnings of $172.3M, the company has a fair value of $21.66 per share. The EPV range is $17.75 – $27.36 based on WACC sensitivity (6.6% – 9.6%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	172	172	172
(/) WACC	9.6%	8.1%	6.6%
Enterprise Value	1,798	2,132	2,618
(-) Net debt	285	285	285
Equity Value	1,513	1,847	2,333
(/) Outstanding shares	85	85	85
Fair Price	$17.75	$21.66	$27.36

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.