Main Street Capital Corporation

MAIN

Financial ServicesAsset ManagementNYSE

$52.92

Market Cap: $4.77B

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$55.04 – $317.69	$102.62	+89.3%
Growth Exit 10Y	$68.18 – $357.32	$121.10	+123.4%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$54.62 – $117.80	$83.63	+54.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$67.57 – $149.64	$102.80	+89.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$45.41 – $64.34	$47.67	-12.1%
EV/EBITDA	$54.17 – $130.37	$52.00	-4.0%
EV/Revenue	$37.65 – $73.23	$33.98	-37.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$32.51 – $32.51	$32.51	-40.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$34.57 – $67.00	$47.41	-12.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$49.03 – $124.99	$72.80	+34.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$102.62

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+93.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 8.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $102.62 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 93.9% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	573
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	106
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	27
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	705

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	39
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	40
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	512	466	509	556	607	623

Terminal Value						13,254
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	9,364

Enterprise Value	11,586
Projection Period	2,223	19.2%
Terminal Value	9,364	80.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416

Equity Value	9,171
(/) Outstanding Shares	89

Fair Price	$102.62

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$145	$168	$200	$245	$318
6.2%	$108	$121	$138	$160	$190
7.2%	$84	$93	$103	$115	$131
8.2%	$67	$73	$80	$88	$97
9.2%	$55	$59	$64	$69	$76

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$121.10

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+128.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $121.10 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 128.8% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	600	638	674	706	734	752
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	111	118	125	131	136	139
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	34	36	39	42	45	46
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	745	793	838	879	914	937

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	40	43	45	48	49	51
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	42	45	47	50	51	53
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	512	466	509	556	607	658	702	742	779	811	831

Terminal Value											17,689
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	449	447	441	431	419	8,828

Enterprise Value	13,238
Projection Period	4,409	33.3%
Terminal Value	8,828	66.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416

Equity Value	10,822
(/) Outstanding Shares	89

Fair Price	$121.10

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$179	$202	$235	$282	$357
6.2%	$133	$146	$163	$184	$214
7.2%	$104	$112	$121	$133	$148
8.2%	$83	$88	$94	$101	$110
9.2%	$68	$72	$76	$80	$86

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$83.61

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+58.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 8.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $83.63 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 58.0% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.38x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	573
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	106
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	27
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	705

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	—
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	—
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	512	466	509	556	607	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						15.4x
Terminal Value						10,849
WACC / Discount Rate	7.20%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	7,665

Enterprise Value	9,887
Projection Period	2,223	22.5%
Terminal Value	7,665	77.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416
Equity Value	7,472
(÷) Outstanding Shares	89M
Fair Price	$84	+58.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.4x	13.4x	15.4x	17.4x	19.4x
5.2%	$69	$81	$93	$106	$118
6.2%	$65	$77	$88	$100	$112
7.2%	$61	$72	$84	$95	$106
8.2%	$58	$69	$79	$90	$100
9.2%	$55	$65	$75	$85	$95

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$102.79

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+94.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $102.80 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 94.3% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.38x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	600	638	674	706	734	752
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	111	118	125	131	136	139
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	34	36	39	42	45	46
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	745	793	838	879	914	937

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	40	43	45	48	49	—
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	42	45	47	50	51	—
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	512	466	509	556	607	658	702	742	779	811	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											15.4x
Terminal Value											14,410
WACC / Discount Rate	7.20%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	449	447	441	431	419	7,192

Enterprise Value	11,601
Projection Period	4,409	38.0%
Terminal Value	7,192	62.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416
Equity Value	9,185
(÷) Outstanding Shares	89M
Fair Price	$103	+94.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.4x	13.4x	15.4x	17.4x	19.4x
5.2%	$99	$112	$124	$137	$150
6.2%	$90	$102	$113	$125	$136
7.2%	$82	$92	$103	$113	$124
8.2%	$74	$84	$93	$103	$113
9.2%	$68	$76	$85	$94	$102

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$47.67

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-9.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) has a fair value of $47.67 based on 8 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

P/E Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	9.6x	9.9x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	9.8x	7.8x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	8.2x	7.5x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	10.2x	8.1x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	15.4x	8.4x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	11.7x	6.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	8.2x	13.5x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	7.2x	5.5x
Stellus Capital Investment CorporationSCM	273	9.9x	8.4x
Industry Median		9.9x	7.9x
(*) Profit after tax		493	477
Equity Value		4,876	3,644
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$55	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.67

-9.9%

Fair Value

$52.00

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-1.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) has a fair value of $52.00 based on 8 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	13.6x	16.9x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	12.9x	13.4x
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK	3,005	15.7x	10.6x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	13.8x	15.1x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	15.1x	11.4x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	26.7x	24.7x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	36.8x	34.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	15.7x	17.2x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	6.4x	9.8x
Industry Median		15.4x	14.3x
(*) EBITDA		527	422
= Enterprise Value		8,102	6,023
(-) Net Debt		2,416	2,416
Equity Value		5,687	3,608
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$64	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.00

-1.7%

Fair Value

$33.98

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-35.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) has a fair value of $33.98 based on 8 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	11.1x	13.8x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	9.0x	9.3x
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK	3,005	8.9x	6.0x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	9.2x	10.1x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	9.7x	7.3x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	13.9x	12.8x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	14.5x	13.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	11.4x	12.5x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	5.4x	8.3x
Industry Median		9.4x	9.7x
(*) Revenue		645	516
= Enterprise Value		6,079	4,825
(-) Net Debt		2,416	2,416
Equity Value		3,663	2,410
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$41	$27

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$33.98

-35.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$32.51

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-38.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 6.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $32.51 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.06.

PEG Ratio

PEG ratio unavailable — requires positive earnings and growth data.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	-14.0%
Dividend Yield	+6.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.06
Fair Value	$32.51

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$5.52	—	—
FY2026E	$4.06	-26.4%	5
FY2027E	$4.08	+0.5%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: -14.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$330.8M	$4.80	—
FY2022	$241.6M	$3.24	-32.5%
FY2023	$428.4M	$5.23	+61.4%
FY2024	$508.1M	$5.85	+11.9%
FY2025	$493.4M	$5.52	-5.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 3.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$47.41

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-10.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.2% and normalized earnings of $478.7M, the company has a fair value of $47.41 per share. The EPV range is $34.57 – $67.00 based on WACC sensitivity (5.7% – 8.7%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	479	479	479
(/) WACC	8.7%	7.2%	5.7%
Enterprise Value	5,505	6,652	8,403
(-) Net debt	2,416	2,416	2,416
Equity Value	3,089	4,236	5,988
(/) Outstanding shares	89	89	89
Fair Price	$34.57	$47.41	$67.00

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$72.80

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+37.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.0% and projected dividend growth of 3.3%, the fair value is $72.80 per share. The DDM range is $49.03 – $124.99 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.80

Dividend Yield

6.95%

Payout Ratio

68.8%

Dividend Coverage

1.45x

FCF Payout Ratio97.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)13.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.80	68.8%	+4.9%
2024	$3.62	63.1%	+9.1%
2023	$3.32	63.4%	+27.2%
2022	$2.61	80.4%	+12.0%
2021	$2.33	48.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.92	3.3%	0.9257	$3.63
2027	$4.05	3.3%	0.8569	$3.47
2028	$4.18	3.3%	0.7933	$3.32
2029	$4.32	3.3%	0.7343	$3.17
2030	$4.46	3.3%	0.6798	$3.03
Terminal Value	$4.57 DPS	2.5%		$56.19

PV of Projected Dividends$16.61

PV of Terminal Value$56.19

Fair Value per Share$72.80

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.3%	2.3%	3.3%	4.3%	5.3%
6.0%	$104	$109	$114	$120	$125
7.0%	$81	$85	$89	$93	$97
8.0%	$67	$70	$73	$76	$79
9.0%	$57	$59	$62	$64	$67
10.0%	$49	$51	$53	$56	$58

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$55.04 – $317.69	$102.62	+89.3%
Growth Exit 10Y	$68.18 – $357.32	$121.10	+123.4%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$54.62 – $117.80	$83.63	+54.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$67.57 – $149.64	$102.80	+89.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$45.41 – $64.34	$47.67	-12.1%
EV/EBITDA	$54.17 – $130.37	$52.00	-4.0%
EV/Revenue	$37.65 – $73.23	$33.98	-37.3%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$32.51 – $32.51	$32.51	-40.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$34.57 – $67.00	$47.41	-12.5%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$49.03 – $124.99	$72.80	+34.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$102.62

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+93.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	573
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	106
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	27
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	705

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	39
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	40
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	512	466	509	556	607	623

Terminal Value						13,254
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	9,364

Enterprise Value	11,586
Projection Period	2,223	19.2%
Terminal Value	9,364	80.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416

Equity Value	9,171
(/) Outstanding Shares	89

Fair Price	$102.62

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$145	$168	$200	$245	$318
6.2%	$108	$121	$138	$160	$190
7.2%	$84	$93	$103	$115	$131
8.2%	$67	$73	$80	$88	$97
9.2%	$55	$59	$64	$69	$76

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$121.10

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+128.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	600	638	674	706	734	752
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	111	118	125	131	136	139
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	34	36	39	42	45	46
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	745	793	838	879	914	937

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	40	43	45	48	49	51
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	42	45	47	50	51	53
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	512	466	509	556	607	658	702	742	779	811	831

Terminal Value											17,689
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	449	447	441	431	419	8,828

Enterprise Value	13,238
Projection Period	4,409	33.3%
Terminal Value	8,828	66.7%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416

Equity Value	10,822
(/) Outstanding Shares	89

Fair Price	$121.10

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$179	$202	$235	$282	$357
6.2%	$133	$146	$163	$184	$214
7.2%	$104	$112	$121	$133	$148
8.2%	$83	$88	$94	$101	$110
9.2%	$68	$72	$76	$80	$86

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$83.61

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+58.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 8.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $83.63 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 58.0% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.38x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	573
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	106
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	27
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	705

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	—
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	—
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	512	466	509	556	607	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						15.4x
Terminal Value						10,849
WACC / Discount Rate	7.20%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	7,665

Enterprise Value	9,887
Projection Period	2,223	22.5%
Terminal Value	7,665	77.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416
Equity Value	7,472
(÷) Outstanding Shares	89M
Fair Price	$84	+58.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.4x	13.4x	15.4x	17.4x	19.4x
5.2%	$69	$81	$93	$106	$118
6.2%	$65	$77	$88	$100	$112
7.2%	$61	$72	$84	$95	$106
8.2%	$58	$69	$79	$90	$100
9.2%	$55	$65	$75	$85	$95

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$102.79

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+94.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Main Street Capital Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -7.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 38, DPO 161, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $102.80 per share, suggesting MAIN is undervalued by 94.3% at the current price of $52.92.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.20%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

15.38x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	424	441	477	516	559	600	638	674	706	734	752
(−) Net Interest	79	82	88	96	104	111	118	125	131	136	139
(+) D&A	0	6	12	19	26	34	36	39	42	45	46
EBITDA	503	528	578	631	688	745	793	838	879	914	937

(−) Tax	29	30	32	35	38	40	43	45	48	49	—
(−) CapEx	30	31	33	36	39	42	45	47	50	51	—
(−) ΔWC	-68	2	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	512	466	509	556	607	658	702	742	779	811	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											15.4x
Terminal Value											14,410
WACC / Discount Rate	7.20%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	495	420	427	436	444	449	447	441	431	419	7,192

Enterprise Value	11,601
Projection Period	4,409	38.0%
Terminal Value	7,192	62.0%

(−) Current Net Debt	2,416
Equity Value	9,185
(÷) Outstanding Shares	89M
Fair Price	$103	+94.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	11.4x	13.4x	15.4x	17.4x	19.4x
5.2%	$99	$112	$124	$137	$150
6.2%	$90	$102	$113	$125	$136
7.2%	$82	$92	$103	$113	$124
8.2%	$74	$84	$93	$103	$113
9.2%	$68	$76	$85	$94	$102

Current price: $52.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$47.67

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-9.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	9.6x	9.9x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	9.8x	7.8x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	8.2x	7.5x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	10.2x	8.1x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	15.4x	8.4x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	11.7x	6.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	8.2x	13.5x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	7.2x	5.5x
Stellus Capital Investment CorporationSCM	273	9.9x	8.4x
Industry Median		9.9x	7.9x
(*) Profit after tax		493	477
Equity Value		4,876	3,644
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$55	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$47.67

-9.9%

Fair Value

$52.00

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-1.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	13.6x	16.9x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	12.9x	13.4x
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK	3,005	15.7x	10.6x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	13.8x	15.1x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	15.1x	11.4x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	26.7x	24.7x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	36.8x	34.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	15.7x	17.2x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	6.4x	9.8x
Industry Median		15.4x	14.3x
(*) EBITDA		527	422
= Enterprise Value		8,102	6,023
(-) Net Debt		2,416	2,416
Equity Value		5,687	3,608
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$64	$40

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.00

-1.7%

Fair Value

$33.98

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-35.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Asset Management

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Main Street Capital CorporationMAIN	4,729	11.1x	13.8x
Ares Capital CorporationARCC	13,140	9.0x	9.3x
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK	3,005	8.9x	6.0x
Hercules Capital, Inc.HTGC	2,788	9.2x	10.1x
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.TSLX	1,757	9.7x	7.3x
Capital Southwest CorporationCSWC	1,364	13.9x	12.8x
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd.PFLT	832	14.5x	13.6x
Gladstone Investment CorporationGAIN	583	11.4x	12.5x
Gladstone Capital CorporationGLAD	414	5.4x	8.3x
Industry Median		9.4x	9.7x
(*) Revenue		645	516
= Enterprise Value		6,079	4,825
(-) Net Debt		2,416	2,416
Equity Value		3,663	2,410
(/) Outstanding shares		89	89
Fair Price		$41	$27

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$33.98

-35.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$32.51

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-38.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 6.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $32.51 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.06.

PEG Ratio

PEG ratio unavailable — requires positive earnings and growth data.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	-14.0%
Dividend Yield	+6.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.06
Fair Value	$32.51

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$5.52	—	—
FY2026E	$4.06	-26.4%	5
FY2027E	$4.08	+0.5%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: -14.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$330.8M	$4.80	—
FY2022	$241.6M	$3.24	-32.5%
FY2023	$428.4M	$5.23	+61.4%
FY2024	$508.1M	$5.85	+11.9%
FY2025	$493.4M	$5.52	-5.6%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 3.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$47.41

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

-10.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	479	479	479
(/) WACC	8.7%	7.2%	5.7%
Enterprise Value	5,505	6,652	8,403
(-) Net debt	2,416	2,416	2,416
Equity Value	3,089	4,236	5,988
(/) Outstanding shares	89	89	89
Fair Price	$34.57	$47.41	$67.00

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$72.80

Market Price

$52.92

Upside / Downside

+37.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.80

Dividend Yield

6.95%

Payout Ratio

68.8%

Dividend Coverage

1.45x

FCF Payout Ratio97.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)13.0%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.80	68.8%	+4.9%
2024	$3.62	63.1%	+9.1%
2023	$3.32	63.4%	+27.2%
2022	$2.61	80.4%	+12.0%
2021	$2.33	48.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.92	3.3%	0.9257	$3.63
2027	$4.05	3.3%	0.8569	$3.47
2028	$4.18	3.3%	0.7933	$3.32
2029	$4.32	3.3%	0.7343	$3.17
2030	$4.46	3.3%	0.6798	$3.03
Terminal Value	$4.57 DPS	2.5%		$56.19

PV of Projected Dividends$16.61

PV of Terminal Value$56.19

Fair Value per Share$72.80

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	1.3%	2.3%	3.3%	4.3%	5.3%
6.0%	$104	$109	$114	$120	$125
7.0%	$81	$85	$89	$93	$97
8.0%	$67	$70	$73	$76	$79
9.0%	$57	$59	$62	$64	$67
10.0%	$49	$51	$53	$56	$58