Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

MAA

Real EstateREIT - ResidentialNYSE

$129.72

Market Cap: $15.10B

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$29.42 – $342.29	$78.23	-37.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$33.00 – $331.51	$80.17	-35.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$57.32 – $140.72	$95.60	-23.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$57.54 – $156.90	$100.11	-19.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$92.45 – $124.21	$109.87	-11.8%
EV/EBITDA	$120.63 – $233.42	$149.70	+20.2%
EV/Revenue	$115.86 – $183.41	$144.54	+16.0%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$27.06 – $27.06	$27.06	-78.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$17.96 – $53.59	$31.88	-74.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$98.67 – $247.50	$146.00	+17.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$78.23

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-39.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to -3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $78.23 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 39.7% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	558
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	202
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	429
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,188

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	461
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	-16
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	214	599	627	662	720	738

Terminal Value						16,951
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	12,168

Enterprise Value	14,507
Projection Period	2,339	16.1%
Terminal Value	12,168	83.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345

Equity Value	9,162
(/) Outstanding Shares	117

Fair Price	$78.23

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$124	$150	$187	$243	$342
5.9%	$84	$98	$116	$141	$176
6.9%	$59	$68	$78	$92	$109
7.9%	$42	$48	$54	$63	$73
8.9%	$29	$34	$38	$44	$50

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$80.17

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-38.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (68% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $80.17 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 38.2% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	572	599	625	649	671	688
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	207	217	226	235	243	249
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	436	450	465	480	495	507
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,215	1,266	1,316	1,364	1,408	1,444

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	473	496	517	537	555	569
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	23	23	21	20	19	19
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	214	599	627	662	720	714	742	772	801	829	850

Terminal Value											19,505
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	496	482	470	456	441	10,050

Enterprise Value	14,735
Projection Period	4,685	31.8%
Terminal Value	10,050	68.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345

Equity Value	9,390
(/) Outstanding Shares	117

Fair Price	$80.17

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$133	$157	$190	$242	$332
5.9%	$91	$103	$119	$140	$171
6.9%	$64	$71	$80	$91	$106
7.9%	$46	$51	$56	$63	$71
8.9%	$33	$36	$40	$44	$49

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$95.60

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-26.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to -3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $95.60 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 26.3% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	558
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	202
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	429
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,188

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	—
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	—
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	214	599	627	662	720	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						16.6x
Terminal Value						19,785
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	14,202

Enterprise Value	16,541
Projection Period	2,339	14.1%
Terminal Value	14,202	85.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345
Equity Value	11,196
(÷) Outstanding Shares	117M
Fair Price	$96	-26.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
4.9%	$77	$93	$109	$125	$141
5.9%	$71	$87	$102	$117	$133
6.9%	$66	$81	$96	$110	$125
7.9%	$62	$76	$90	$103	$117
8.9%	$57	$71	$84	$97	$110

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$100.11

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-22.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $100.11 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 22.8% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	572	599	625	649	671	688
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	207	217	226	235	243	249
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	436	450	465	480	495	507
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,215	1,266	1,316	1,364	1,408	1,444

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	—
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	473	496	517	537	555	—
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	23	23	21	20	19	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	214	599	627	662	720	714	742	772	801	829	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											16.6x
Terminal Value											24,035
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	496	482	470	456	441	12,384

Enterprise Value	17,069
Projection Period	4,685	27.4%
Terminal Value	12,384	72.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345
Equity Value	11,724
(÷) Outstanding Shares	117M
Fair Price	$100	-22.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
4.9%	$96	$111	$126	$142	$157
5.9%	$85	$99	$113	$126	$140
6.9%	$75	$87	$100	$113	$126
7.9%	$66	$77	$89	$100	$112
8.9%	$58	$68	$79	$89	$100

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$109.81

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-15.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) has a fair value of $109.81 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Residential industry.

P/E Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	34.3x	38.6x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	24.2x	43.5x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	27.8x	38.7x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	34.5x	27.7x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	28.4x	30.4x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	11.8x	47.7x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	32.5x	30.8x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	25.6x	33.8x
Industry Median		27.8x	33.8x
(*) Profit after tax		447	393
Equity Value		12,420	13,299
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$106	$114

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$109.81

-15.3%

Fair Value

$149.46

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+15.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) has a fair value of $149.46 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Residential industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	15.6x	15.3x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	14.8x	14.4x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	16.7x	17.7x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	18.6x	18.1x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	15.0x	14.6x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	24.8x	25.3x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	25.5x	24.8x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	13.3x	14.3x
Industry Median		16.7x	17.7x
(*) EBITDA		1,319	1,339
= Enterprise Value		21,955	23,742
(-) Net Debt		5,345	5,345
Equity Value		16,610	18,396
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$142	$157

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$149.46

+15.2%

Fair Value

$144.32

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+11.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) has a fair value of $144.32 based on 7 comparable companies in the REIT - Residential industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	9.3x	9.2x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	12.1x	11.9x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	9.0x	9.6x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	14.3x	13.9x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	11.4x	11.1x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	7.3x	7.5x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	10.1x	9.9x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	8.6x	9.2x
Industry Median		10.1x	9.9x
(*) Revenue		2,209	2,242
= Enterprise Value		22,391	22,102
(-) Net Debt		5,345	5,345
Equity Value		17,046	16,757
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$146	$143

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$144.32

+11.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$27.06

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-79.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 4.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $27.06 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $3.36. The current PEG ratio is 4.60.

PEG Ratio

4.60Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 37.0 ÷ (3.2% + 4.9%) = 4.60

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	3.2%
Dividend Yield	+4.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.36
Fair Value	$27.06

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.78	—	—
FY2026E	$3.36	-11.0%	12
FY2027E	$3.35	-0.5%	13
FY2028E	$4.06	+21.3%	4
FY2029E	$4.28	+5.4%	3

4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 3.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$533.8M	$4.61	—
FY2022	$637.4M	$5.48	+18.9%
FY2023	$552.8M	$4.71	-14.1%
FY2024	$527.5M	$4.49	-4.7%
FY2025	$446.9M	$3.78	-15.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -4.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$31.88

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-75.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.9% and normalized earnings of $622.4M, the company has a fair value of $31.88 per share. The EPV range is $17.96 – $53.59 based on WACC sensitivity (5.4% – 8.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	622	622	622
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	7,449	9,078	11,621
(-) Net debt	5,345	5,345	5,345
Equity Value	2,104	3,733	6,276
(/) Outstanding shares	117	117	117
Fair Price	$17.96	$31.88	$53.59

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$146.00

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+12.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.2% and projected dividend growth of 9.3%, the fair value is $146.00 per share. The DDM range is $98.67 – $247.50 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$6.05

Dividend Yield

4.89%

Payout Ratio

158.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.63x

FCF Payout Ratio98.8%

DPS CAGR (4Y)10.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$6.05	158.7%	+2.9%
2024	$5.88	130.2%	+5.3%
2023	$5.59	117.9%	+19.7%
2022	$4.67	84.7%	+14.2%
2021	$4.09	88.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$6.62	9.3%	0.9242	$6.12
2027	$7.24	9.3%	0.8542	$6.18
2028	$7.91	9.3%	0.7895	$6.25
2029	$8.65	9.3%	0.7297	$6.31
2030	$9.46	9.3%	0.6744	$6.38
Terminal Value	$9.70 DPS	2.5%		$114.76

PV of Projected Dividends$31.24

PV of Terminal Value$114.76

Fair Value per Share$146.00

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	7.3%	8.3%	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%
6.2%	$208	$218	$227	$237	$248
7.2%	$163	$171	$178	$186	$194
8.2%	$134	$140	$146	$152	$159
9.2%	$114	$119	$124	$129	$134
10.2%	$99	$103	$107	$112	$116

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$29.42 – $342.29	$78.23	-37.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$33.00 – $331.51	$80.17	-35.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$57.32 – $140.72	$95.60	-23.3%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$57.54 – $156.90	$100.11	-19.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$92.45 – $124.21	$109.87	-11.8%
EV/EBITDA	$120.63 – $233.42	$149.70	+20.2%
EV/Revenue	$115.86 – $183.41	$144.54	+16.0%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$27.06 – $27.06	$27.06	-78.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$17.96 – $53.59	$31.88	-74.4%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$98.67 – $247.50	$146.00	+17.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$78.23

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-39.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	558
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	202
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	429
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,188

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	461
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	-16
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	214	599	627	662	720	738

Terminal Value						16,951
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	12,168

Enterprise Value	14,507
Projection Period	2,339	16.1%
Terminal Value	12,168	83.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345

Equity Value	9,162
(/) Outstanding Shares	117

Fair Price	$78.23

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$124	$150	$187	$243	$342
5.9%	$84	$98	$116	$141	$176
6.9%	$59	$68	$78	$92	$109
7.9%	$42	$48	$54	$63	$73
8.9%	$29	$34	$38	$44	$50

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$80.17

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-38.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	572	599	625	649	671	688
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	207	217	226	235	243	249
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	436	450	465	480	495	507
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,215	1,266	1,316	1,364	1,408	1,444

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	473	496	517	537	555	569
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	23	23	21	20	19	19
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	214	599	627	662	720	714	742	772	801	829	850

Terminal Value											19,505
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	496	482	470	456	441	10,050

Enterprise Value	14,735
Projection Period	4,685	31.8%
Terminal Value	10,050	68.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345

Equity Value	9,390
(/) Outstanding Shares	117

Fair Price	$80.17

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$133	$157	$190	$242	$332
5.9%	$91	$103	$119	$140	$171
6.9%	$64	$71	$80	$91	$106
7.9%	$46	$51	$56	$63	$71
8.9%	$33	$36	$40	$44	$49

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$95.60

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-26.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to -3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $95.60 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 26.3% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	558
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	202
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	429
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,188

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	—
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	—
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	214	599	627	662	720	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						16.6x
Terminal Value						19,785
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	14,202

Enterprise Value	16,541
Projection Period	2,339	14.1%
Terminal Value	14,202	85.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345
Equity Value	11,196
(÷) Outstanding Shares	117M
Fair Price	$96	-26.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
4.9%	$77	$93	$109	$125	$141
5.9%	$71	$87	$102	$117	$133
6.9%	$66	$81	$96	$110	$125
7.9%	$62	$76	$90	$103	$117
8.9%	$57	$71	$84	$97	$110

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$100.11

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-22.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.8% to 3.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $100.11 per share, suggesting MAA is overvalued by 22.8% at the current price of $129.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.86%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

16.65x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	491	506	534	563	544	572	599	625	649	671	688
(−) Net Interest	178	183	193	204	197	207	217	226	235	243	249
(+) D&A	366	345	370	390	418	436	450	465	480	495	507
EBITDA	1,035	1,034	1,097	1,156	1,159	1,215	1,266	1,316	1,364	1,408	1,444

(−) Tax	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	—
(−) CapEx	406	419	442	466	450	473	496	517	537	555	—
(−) ΔWC	410	13	23	24	-16	23	23	21	20	19	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	214	599	627	662	720	714	742	772	801	829	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											16.6x
Terminal Value											24,035
WACC / Discount Rate	6.86%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	207	542	531	525	535	496	482	470	456	441	12,384

Enterprise Value	17,069
Projection Period	4,685	27.4%
Terminal Value	12,384	72.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,345
Equity Value	11,724
(÷) Outstanding Shares	117M
Fair Price	$100	-22.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	12.7x	14.7x	16.7x	18.7x	20.7x
4.9%	$96	$111	$126	$142	$157
5.9%	$85	$99	$113	$126	$140
6.9%	$75	$87	$100	$113	$126
7.9%	$66	$77	$89	$100	$112
8.9%	$58	$68	$79	$89	$100

Current price: $129.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$109.81

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-15.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	34.3x	38.6x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	24.2x	43.5x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	27.8x	38.7x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	34.5x	27.7x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	28.4x	30.4x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	11.8x	47.7x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	32.5x	30.8x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	25.6x	33.8x
Industry Median		27.8x	33.8x
(*) Profit after tax		447	393
Equity Value		12,420	13,299
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$106	$114

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$109.81

-15.3%

Fair Value

$149.46

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+15.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	15.6x	15.3x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	14.8x	14.4x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	16.7x	17.7x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	18.6x	18.1x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	15.0x	14.6x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	24.8x	25.3x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	25.5x	24.8x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	13.3x	14.3x
Industry Median		16.7x	17.7x
(*) EBITDA		1,319	1,339
= Enterprise Value		21,955	23,742
(-) Net Debt		5,345	5,345
Equity Value		16,610	18,396
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$142	$157

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$149.46

+15.2%

Fair Value

$144.32

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+11.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — REIT - Residential

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.MAA	15,192	9.3x	9.2x
Essex Property Trust, Inc.ESS	16,260	12.1x	11.9x
Invitation Homes Inc.INVH	16,258	9.0x	9.6x
W. P. Carey Inc.WPC	15,980	14.3x	13.9x
Kimco Realty CorporationKIM	15,896	11.4x	11.1x
Sun Communities, Inc.SUI	15,755	7.3x	7.5x
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.ELS	12,183	10.1x	9.9x
American Homes 4 RentAMH	10,960	8.6x	9.2x
Industry Median		10.1x	9.9x
(*) Revenue		2,209	2,242
= Enterprise Value		22,391	22,102
(-) Net Debt		5,345	5,345
Equity Value		17,046	16,757
(/) Outstanding shares		117	117
Fair Price		$146	$143

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$144.32

+11.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$27.06

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-79.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

4.60Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 37.0 ÷ (3.2% + 4.9%) = 4.60

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Slow GrowerPEG less reliable

PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	3.2%
Dividend Yield	+4.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$3.36
Fair Value	$27.06

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.78	—	—
FY2026E	$3.36	-11.0%	12
FY2027E	$3.35	-0.5%	13
FY2028E	$4.06	+21.3%	4
FY2029E	$4.28	+5.4%	3

4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 3.2%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$533.8M	$4.61	—
FY2022	$637.4M	$5.48	+18.9%
FY2023	$552.8M	$4.71	-14.1%
FY2024	$527.5M	$4.49	-4.7%
FY2025	$446.9M	$3.78	-15.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -4.8%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$31.88

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

-75.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	622	622	622
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	7,449	9,078	11,621
(-) Net debt	5,345	5,345	5,345
Equity Value	2,104	3,733	6,276
(/) Outstanding shares	117	117	117
Fair Price	$17.96	$31.88	$53.59

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$146.00

Market Price

$129.72

Upside / Downside

+12.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$6.05

Dividend Yield

4.89%

Payout Ratio

158.7%

Dividend Coverage

0.63x

FCF Payout Ratio98.8%

DPS CAGR (4Y)10.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$6.05	158.7%	+2.9%
2024	$5.88	130.2%	+5.3%
2023	$5.59	117.9%	+19.7%
2022	$4.67	84.7%	+14.2%
2021	$4.09	88.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$6.62	9.3%	0.9242	$6.12
2027	$7.24	9.3%	0.8542	$6.18
2028	$7.91	9.3%	0.7895	$6.25
2029	$8.65	9.3%	0.7297	$6.31
2030	$9.46	9.3%	0.6744	$6.38
Terminal Value	$9.70 DPS	2.5%		$114.76

PV of Projected Dividends$31.24

PV of Terminal Value$114.76

Fair Value per Share$146.00

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	7.3%	8.3%	9.3%	10.3%	11.3%
6.2%	$208	$218	$227	$237	$248
7.2%	$163	$171	$178	$186	$194
8.2%	$134	$140	$146	$152	$159
9.2%	$114	$119	$124	$129	$134
10.2%	$99	$103	$107	$112	$116