Lemonade, Inc.

LMND

Financial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyNYSE

$52.87

Market Cap: $4.06B

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$4.03 – $249.22	$44.22	-33.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$13.60 – $31.81	$28.00	-57.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$44.22

Market Price

$52.87

Upside / Downside

-16.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -21.8% to a target of 24.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.3%, Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) has an intrinsic value of $44.22 per share (range: $4.03 – $249.22).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-21.8%

Target Operating Margin

24.2%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,195	62.0%	-12.6%	-151	-151	43	(43)	861	-1,010	-976
2027	1,594	33.3%	-3.4%	-54	-54	58	(61)	412	-470	-423
2028	2,075	30.2%	5.8%	120	95	75	(85)	498	-413	-346
2029	1,613	-22.3%	15.0%	242	191	59	(71)	-477	656	513
2030	2,097	30.0%	24.2%	507	400	76	(97)	500	-121	-88
2031	2,726	30.0%	24.2%	659	521	99	(134)	651	-165	-112
2032	3,544	30.0%	24.2%	857	677	129	(184)	846	-224	-142
2033	4,569	28.9%	24.2%	1,104	872	166	(249)	1,060	-271	-160
2034	5,495	20.3%	24.2%	1,328	1,049	199	(315)	958	-24	-13
2035	6,135	11.6%	24.2%	1,483	1,172	223	(368)	661	365	187

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,560

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,814

PV of Terminal Value4,528

Enterprise Value2,968

(–) Net Debt-208

Equity Value3,176

(÷) Shares Outstanding72

Fair Value per Share$44.22

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	18.2%	21.2%	24.2%	27.2%	30.2%
5.3%	$-4	$60	$123	$186	$249
6.3%	$-13	$29	$71	$113	$155
7.3%	$-18	$13	$44	$75	$106
8.3%	$-20	$4	$28	$52	$76
9.3%	$-21	$-2	$18	$37	$57

Current price: $52.87. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 103.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$27.93

Market Price

$52.87

Upside / Downside

-47.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) has a fair value of $27.93 based on 9 comparable companies in the Insurance - Property & Casualty industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Lemonade, Inc.LMND	3,797	4.9x	4.9x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	0.9x	1.1x
Flagstar Financial, Inc.FLG	5,920	3.7x	6.8x
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.WTM	5,627	2.3x	14.4x
Mercury General CorporationMCY	5,330	0.8x	1.1x
RLI Corp.RLI	5,250	2.8x	2.6x
Radian Group Inc.RDN	4,849	4.8x	4.7x
Selective Insurance Group, Inc.SIGI	4,664	1.0x	1.2x
Lazard LtdLAZ	4,498	1.7x	1.9x
Hagerty, Inc.HGTY	3,601	2.4x	2.6x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.6x
(*) Revenue		738	728
= Enterprise Value		1,711	1,895
(-) Net Debt		-203	-203
Equity Value		1,914	2,098
(/) Outstanding shares		72	72
Fair Price		$27	$29

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.93

-47.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$4.03 – $249.22

$44.22

-33.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$13.60 – $31.81

$28.00

-57.9%

DCF Analysis

Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$44.22

Market Price

$52.87

Upside / Downside

-16.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-21.8%

Target Operating Margin

24.2%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,195	62.0%	-12.6%	-151	-151	43	(43)	861	-1,010	-976
2027	1,594	33.3%	-3.4%	-54	-54	58	(61)	412	-470	-423
2028	2,075	30.2%	5.8%	120	95	75	(85)	498	-413	-346
2029	1,613	-22.3%	15.0%	242	191	59	(71)	-477	656	513
2030	2,097	30.0%	24.2%	507	400	76	(97)	500	-121	-88
2031	2,726	30.0%	24.2%	659	521	99	(134)	651	-165	-112
2032	3,544	30.0%	24.2%	857	677	129	(184)	846	-224	-142
2033	4,569	28.9%	24.2%	1,104	872	166	(249)	1,060	-271	-160
2034	5,495	20.3%	24.2%	1,328	1,049	199	(315)	958	-24	-13
2035	6,135	11.6%	24.2%	1,483	1,172	223	(368)	661	365	187

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,560

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)8,814

PV of Terminal Value4,528

Enterprise Value2,968

(–) Net Debt-208

Equity Value3,176

(÷) Shares Outstanding72

Fair Value per Share$44.22

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	18.2%	21.2%	24.2%	27.2%	30.2%
5.3%	$-4	$60	$123	$186	$249
6.3%	$-13	$29	$71	$113	$155
7.3%	$-18	$13	$44	$75	$106
8.3%	$-20	$4	$28	$52	$76
9.3%	$-21	$-2	$18	$37	$57

Current price: $52.87. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$27.93

Market Price

$52.87

Upside / Downside

-47.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Insurance - Property & Casualty

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Lemonade, Inc.LMND	3,797	4.9x	4.9x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	0.9x	1.1x
Flagstar Financial, Inc.FLG	5,920	3.7x	6.8x
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.WTM	5,627	2.3x	14.4x
Mercury General CorporationMCY	5,330	0.8x	1.1x
RLI Corp.RLI	5,250	2.8x	2.6x
Radian Group Inc.RDN	4,849	4.8x	4.7x
Selective Insurance Group, Inc.SIGI	4,664	1.0x	1.2x
Lazard LtdLAZ	4,498	1.7x	1.9x
Hagerty, Inc.HGTY	3,601	2.4x	2.6x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.6x
(*) Revenue		738	728
= Enterprise Value		1,711	1,895
(-) Net Debt		-203	-203
Equity Value		1,914	2,098
(/) Outstanding shares		72	72
Fair Price		$27	$29

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$27.93

-47.2%