Liberty Live Group

LLYVK

Communication ServicesEntertainmentNASDAQ

$99.19

Market Cap: $9.13B

Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.10 – $3.42	$1.72	-98.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.84 – $8.62	$3.65	-96.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.72

Market Price

$99.19

Upside / Downside

-98.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -12.7% to a target of 10.4% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 6.6%, Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) has an intrinsic value of $1.72 per share (range: $0.10 – $3.42).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

6.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

154.3%

D&A/Revenue

102.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	409	7.2%	-8.1%	-33	-33	421	(93)	1	294	285
2027	438	7.0%	-3.5%	-15	-15	451	(163)	2	271	246
2028	468	6.9%	1.2%	6	4	482	(243)	2	242	206
2029	501	7.0%	5.8%	29	23	516	(333)	2	203	163
2030	526	5.0%	10.4%	55	43	542	(427)	1	156	117
2031	551	4.7%	10.4%	57	45	567	(528)	1	83	59
2032	575	4.3%	10.4%	60	47	591	(635)	1	3	2
2033	598	4.0%	10.4%	62	49	615	(748)	1	-85	-52
2034	620	3.7%	10.4%	65	51	638	(866)	1	-178	-104
2035	640	3.3%	10.4%	67	53	659	(988)	1	-278	-152

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)770

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value770

(–) Net Debt612

Equity Value158

(÷) Shares Outstanding92

Fair Value per Share$1.72

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
4.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$3
5.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$3
6.6%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
7.6%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
8.6%	$0	$1	$2	$2	$3

Current price: $99.19. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 5.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.65

Market Price

$99.19

Upside / Downside

-96.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) has a fair value of $3.65 based on 5 comparable companies in the Entertainment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Entertainment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Liberty Live GroupLLYVK	9,110	25.5x	25.4x
Millicom International Cellular S.A.TIGO	13,508	3.7x	3.7x
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.SIRI	7,872	2.0x	2.0x
Liberty Broadband CorporationLBRDA	7,357	10.8x	10.0x
Lumen Technologies, Inc.LUMN	6,800	1.9x	2.2x
Nexstar Media Group, Inc.NXST	5,642	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		2.5x	2.5x
(*) Revenue		382	382
= Enterprise Value		943	950
(-) Net Debt		612	612
Equity Value		332	339
(/) Outstanding shares		92	92
Fair Price		$4	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.65

-96.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.10 – $3.42

$1.72

-98.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.84 – $8.62

$3.65

-96.3%

DCF Analysis

Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.72

Market Price

$99.19

Upside / Downside

-98.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.4%

WACC

6.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

8.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

154.3%

D&A/Revenue

102.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	409	7.2%	-8.1%	-33	-33	421	(93)	1	294	285
2027	438	7.0%	-3.5%	-15	-15	451	(163)	2	271	246
2028	468	6.9%	1.2%	6	4	482	(243)	2	242	206
2029	501	7.0%	5.8%	29	23	516	(333)	2	203	163
2030	526	5.0%	10.4%	55	43	542	(427)	1	156	117
2031	551	4.7%	10.4%	57	45	567	(528)	1	83	59
2032	575	4.3%	10.4%	60	47	591	(635)	1	3	2
2033	598	4.0%	10.4%	62	49	615	(748)	1	-85	-52
2034	620	3.7%	10.4%	65	51	638	(866)	1	-178	-104
2035	640	3.3%	10.4%	67	53	659	(988)	1	-278	-152

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)770

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value770

(–) Net Debt612

Equity Value158

(÷) Shares Outstanding92

Fair Value per Share$1.72

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.4%	7.4%	10.4%	13.4%	16.4%
4.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$3
5.6%	$-0	$1	$2	$3	$3
6.6%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
7.6%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$3
8.6%	$0	$1	$2	$2	$3

Current price: $99.19. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 5.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.65

Market Price

$99.19

Upside / Downside

-96.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Liberty Live Group (LLYVK) has a fair value of $3.65 based on 5 comparable companies in the Entertainment industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Entertainment

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Liberty Live GroupLLYVK	9,110	25.5x	25.4x
Millicom International Cellular S.A.TIGO	13,508	3.7x	3.7x
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.SIRI	7,872	2.0x	2.0x
Liberty Broadband CorporationLBRDA	7,357	10.8x	10.0x
Lumen Technologies, Inc.LUMN	6,800	1.9x	2.2x
Nexstar Media Group, Inc.NXST	5,642	2.5x	2.5x
Industry Median		2.5x	2.5x
(*) Revenue		382	382
= Enterprise Value		943	950
(-) Net Debt		612	612
Equity Value		332	339
(/) Outstanding shares		92	92
Fair Price		$4	$4

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.65

-96.3%