Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project IREN Limited's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 72.6% to -27.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 47, DPO 225, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (125% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $456.41 per share, suggesting IREN is undervalued by 645.8% at the current price of $61.20.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -1,641 | -5,523 | -8,706 | -15,209 | -11,000 | -11,275 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,944 | 6,544 | 10,316 | 18,020 | 13,033 | 13,359 |
| (+) D&A | 454 | 885 | 2,283 | 4,556 | 8,472 | 8,684 |
| EBITDA | 757 | 1,906 | 3,893 | 7,368 | 10,505 | 10,768 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,164 | 7,284 | 11,482 | 20,057 | 14,506 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 34 | -53 | -44 | -89 | 58 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -1,441 | -5,324 | -7,546 | -12,600 | -4,059 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 180,683 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.20% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -1,392 | -4,797 | -6,342 | -9,880 | -2,969 | 127,647 |
| Enterprise Value | 102,267 | |||||
| Projection Period | -25,380 | -24.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 127,647 | 124.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 400 | |||||
| Equity Value | 101,867 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 223M | |||||
| Fair Price | $456 | +645.6% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.8x | 14.8x | 16.8x | 18.8x | 20.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $357 | $432 | $507 | $582 | $656 |
| 6.2% | $338 | $409 | $481 | $552 | $624 |
| 7.2% | $320 | $388 | $456 | $525 | $593 |
| 8.2% | $303 | $368 | $433 | $498 | $564 |
| 9.2% | $287 | $350 | $412 | $474 | $536 |
Current price: $61.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project IREN Limited's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 72.6% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 47, DPO 225, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (124% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.8x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1044.69 per share, suggesting IREN is undervalued by 1607.0% at the current price of $61.20.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -1,641 | -5,523 | -8,706 | -15,209 | -11,000 | -14,300 | -18,590 | -24,166 | -31,416 | -40,841 | -41,862 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,944 | 6,544 | 10,316 | 18,020 | 13,033 | 16,943 | 22,026 | 28,633 | 37,223 | 48,390 | 49,600 |
| (+) D&A | 454 | 885 | 2,283 | 4,556 | 8,472 | 11,099 | 14,437 | 17,884 | 21,962 | 26,236 | 26,892 |
| EBITDA | 757 | 1,906 | 3,893 | 7,368 | 10,505 | 13,742 | 17,874 | 22,351 | 27,769 | 33,786 | 34,630 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,164 | 7,284 | 11,482 | 20,057 | 14,506 | 18,858 | 24,516 | 31,870 | 41,431 | 53,861 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 34 | -53 | -44 | -89 | 58 | -45 | -59 | -76 | -99 | -129 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -1,441 | -5,324 | -7,546 | -12,600 | -4,059 | -5,071 | -6,583 | -9,443 | -13,563 | -19,946 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.8x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 581,096 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.20% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -1,392 | -4,797 | -6,342 | -9,880 | -2,969 | -3,460 | -4,190 | -5,607 | -7,513 | -10,307 | 290,022 |
| Enterprise Value | 233,564 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | -56,458 | -24.2% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 290,022 | 124.2% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 400 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 233,165 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 223M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $1044 | +1606.6% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.8x | 14.8x | 16.8x | 18.8x | 20.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $911 | $1098 | $1285 | $1472 | $1659 |
| 6.2% | $818 | $988 | $1158 | $1328 | $1498 |
| 7.2% | $735 | $890 | $1045 | $1200 | $1354 |
| 8.2% | $660 | $801 | $942 | $1084 | $1225 |
| 9.2% | $593 | $722 | $850 | $979 | $1108 |
Current price: $61.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), IREN Limited (IREN) has a fair value of $7.42 based on 7 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN LimitedIREN | 13,663 | 156.9x | — |
| Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 23,537 | 29.2x | 27.3x |
| KeyCorp | 23,486 | 14.2x | 21.2x |
| Nomura Holdings, Inc. | 23,066 | 10.0x | — |
| Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 21,608 | 19.1x | 12.1x |
| The Carlyle Group Inc. | 18,286 | 23.2x | 12.6x |
| Banco de Chile | 18,229 | 15.3x | — |
| Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 10,668 | 24.6x | 25.5x |
| Industry Median | 19.1x | 21.2x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 87 | ||
| Equity Value | 1,657 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 223 | ||
| Fair Price | $7 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), IREN Limited (IREN) has a fair value of $21.25 based on 8 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN LimitedIREN | 13,663 | 69.7x | 40.4x |
| Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 23,537 | 15.2x | 13.3x |
| KeyCorp | 23,486 | 14.3x | 30.9x |
| Nomura Holdings, Inc. | 23,066 | 27.0x | — |
| Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 21,608 | 12.8x | 12.7x |
| The Carlyle Group Inc. | 18,286 | 21.7x | 28.0x |
| Banco de Chile | 18,229 | 17.9x | — |
| Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 10,668 | 15.7x | 17.4x |
| Galaxy Digital | 10,027 | 22.8x | 22.2x |
| Industry Median | 16.8x | 19.8x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 202 | 348 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 3,385 | 6,901 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 400 | 400 | |
| Equity Value | 2,985 | 6,501 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 223 | 223 | |
| Fair Price | $13 | $29 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), IREN Limited (IREN) has a fair value of $12.29 based on 8 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN LimitedIREN | 13,663 | 28.1x | 16.3x |
| Tradeweb Markets Inc. | 23,537 | 10.6x | 9.2x |
| KeyCorp | 23,486 | 3.0x | 6.4x |
| Nomura Holdings, Inc. | 23,066 | 3.5x | — |
| Principal Financial Group, Inc. | 21,608 | 1.4x | 1.4x |
| The Carlyle Group Inc. | 18,286 | 5.9x | 7.6x |
| Banco de Chile | 18,229 | 9.5x | — |
| Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 10,668 | 3.6x | 4.0x |
| Galaxy Digital | 10,027 | 0.2x | 0.2x |
| Industry Median | 3.5x | 5.2x | |
| (*) Revenue | 501 | 865 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 1,773 | 4,514 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 400 | 400 | |
| Equity Value | 1,373 | 4,114 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 223 | 223 | |
| Fair Price | $6 | $18 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $4.64 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $0.19. The current PEG ratio is 10.20.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 32.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2027) | $0.19 |
| Fair Value | $4.64 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.39 | — | — |
| FY2027E | $0.19 | -52.4% | 10 |
| FY2028E | $1.91 | +928.2% | 8 |
| FY2029E | $0.54 | -72.0% | 6 |
| FY2030E | $1.58 | +194.9% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 32.3%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-60.4M | $-1.07 | — |
| FY2022 | $-419.8M | $-10.25 | — |
| FY2023 | $-171.8M | $-3.14 | — |
| FY2024 | $-28.9M | $-0.29 | — |
| FY2025 | $86.9M | $0.39 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.0%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.