Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

IONS

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$75.71

Market Cap: $12.51B

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 08:18

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.69 – $51.36	$1.17	-98.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.02 – $62.80	$7.21	-90.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$15.98 – $69.24	$45.10	-40.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.21

Market Price

$75.71

Upside / Downside

-90.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -40.5% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.8%, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) has an intrinsic value of $7.21 per share (range: $2.02 – $62.80).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-40.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	886	-6.2%	-29.7%	-263	-263	25	(39)	20	-297	-286
2027	1,497	69.0%	-19.0%	-285	-285	43	(68)	47	-357	-319
2028	2,162	44.4%	-8.3%	-179	-179	62	(103)	51	-271	-224
2029	2,931	35.6%	2.5%	72	57	83	(144)	59	-63	-48
2030	3,725	27.1%	13.2%	491	388	106	(190)	61	243	173
2031	3,864	3.7%	13.2%	510	403	110	(204)	11	298	197
2032	4,003	3.6%	13.2%	528	417	114	(219)	11	302	185
2033	4,141	3.4%	13.2%	546	432	118	(234)	11	305	173
2034	4,278	3.3%	13.2%	564	446	122	(249)	10	308	162
2035	4,412	3.1%	13.2%	582	460	126	(265)	10	310	152

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)165

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,614

PV of Terminal Value3,231

Enterprise Value3,396

(–) Net Debt2,242

Equity Value1,154

(÷) Shares Outstanding160

Fair Value per Share$7.21

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.8%	$-5	$12	$29	$46	$63
6.8%	$-9	$3	$15	$27	$40
7.8%	$-12	$-2	$7	$17	$26
8.8%	$-14	$-6	$2	$10	$18
9.8%	$-15	$-8	$-2	$5	$11

Current price: $75.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 7.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.17

Market Price

$75.71

Upside / Downside

-98.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-40.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	886	-6.2%	-29.7%	-263	-263	25	(40)	20	-298	-287
2027	1,497	69.0%	-19.0%	-285	-285	43	(74)	47	-362	-324
2028	2,162	44.4%	-8.3%	-179	-179	62	(114)	51	-282	-234
2029	2,931	35.6%	2.5%	72	57	83	(165)	59	-84	-64
2030	3,725	27.1%	13.2%	491	388	106	(224)	61	210	150

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-759

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4,477

PV of Terminal Value3,188

Enterprise Value2,429

(–) Net Debt2,242

Equity Value187

(÷) Shares Outstanding160

Fair Value per Share$1.17

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.8%	$-15	$2	$18	$35	$51
6.8%	$-17	$-5	$7	$19	$31
7.8%	$-18	$-8	$1	$11	$20
8.8%	$-18	$-11	$-3	$5	$12
9.8%	$-19	$-12	$-6	$1	$7

Current price: $75.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 7.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$45.10

Market Price

$75.71

Upside / Downside

-40.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) has a fair value of $45.10 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.IONS	12,114	15.2x	16.2x
Moderna, Inc.MRNA	21,565	10.7x	10.0x
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.BBIO	13,064	30.3x	16.2x
Guardant Health, Inc.GH	12,553	14.1x	10.8x
Exelixis, Inc.EXEL	12,105	5.1x	4.5x
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.MDGL	11,759	12.4x	8.0x
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.BMRN	10,397	3.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		11.6x	9.0x
(*) Revenue		944	886
= Enterprise Value		10,939	7,978
(-) Net Debt		2,242	2,242
Equity Value		8,697	5,736
(/) Outstanding shares		160	160
Fair Price		$54	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.10

-40.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.69 – $51.36

$1.17

-98.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.02 – $62.80

$7.21

-90.5%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$15.98 – $69.24

$45.10

-40.4%

DCF Analysis

Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.21

Market Price

$75.71

Upside / Downside

-90.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-40.5%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

7.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	886	-6.2%	-29.7%	-263	-263	25	(39)	20	-297	-286
2027	1,497	69.0%	-19.0%	-285	-285	43	(68)	47	-357	-319
2028	2,162	44.4%	-8.3%	-179	-179	62	(103)	51	-271	-224
2029	2,931	35.6%	2.5%	72	57	83	(144)	59	-63	-48
2030	3,725	27.1%	13.2%	491	388	106	(190)	61	243	173
2031	3,864	3.7%	13.2%	510	403	110	(204)	11	298	197
2032	4,003	3.6%	13.2%	528	417	114	(219)	11	302	185
2033	4,141	3.4%	13.2%	546	432	118	(234)	11	305	173
2034	4,278	3.3%	13.2%	564	446	122	(249)	10	308	162
2035	4,412	3.1%	13.2%	582	460	126	(265)	10	310	152

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)165

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)6,614

PV of Terminal Value3,231

Enterprise Value3,396

(–) Net Debt2,242

Equity Value1,154

(÷) Shares Outstanding160

Fair Value per Share$7.21

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
5.8%	$-5	$12	$29	$46	$63
6.8%	$-9	$3	$15	$27	$40
7.8%	$-12	$-2	$7	$17	$26
8.8%	$-14	$-6	$2	$10	$18
9.8%	$-15	$-8	$-2	$5	$11

Current price: $75.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 7.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$45.10

Market Price

$75.71

Upside / Downside

-40.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) has a fair value of $45.10 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.IONS	12,114	15.2x	16.2x
Moderna, Inc.MRNA	21,565	10.7x	10.0x
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc.BBIO	13,064	30.3x	16.2x
Guardant Health, Inc.GH	12,553	14.1x	10.8x
Exelixis, Inc.EXEL	12,105	5.1x	4.5x
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.MDGL	11,759	12.4x	8.0x
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.BMRN	10,397	3.0x	2.5x
Industry Median		11.6x	9.0x
(*) Revenue		944	886
= Enterprise Value		10,939	7,978
(-) Net Debt		2,242	2,242
Equity Value		8,697	5,736
(/) Outstanding shares		160	160
Fair Price		$54	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$45.10

-40.4%