Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HTFC) has a fair value of $13.91 based on 9 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Technology Finance CorpHTFC | 1,059 | 23.8x | 12.4x |
| Capital Southwest Corporation | 1,364 | 15.4x | 8.4x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 | 1,124 | 12.9x | 11.9x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 | 1,115 | 12.8x | 11.9x |
| MidCap Financial Investment Corporation | 1,078 | 17.0x | 6.7x |
| Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. | 1,056 | 9.0x | 4.2x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. | 1,049 | 7.7x | 7.2x |
| Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 991 | 10.0x | — |
| Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. | 944 | 10.6x | 6.8x |
| New Mountain Finance Corporation | 815 | 57.7x | 5.8x |
| Industry Median | 12.8x | 7.0x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 45 | 85 | |
| Equity Value | 582 | 596 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 42 | 42 | |
| Fair Price | $14 | $14 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HTFC) has a fair value of $6.41 based on 9 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Technology Finance CorpHTFC | 1,059 | 47.3x | 17.0x |
| Capital Southwest Corporation | 1,364 | 26.7x | 24.7x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 | 1,124 | 11.2x | 11.2x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 | 1,115 | 11.1x | 11.2x |
| MidCap Financial Investment Corporation | 1,078 | 15.6x | 14.0x |
| Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. | 1,056 | 12.3x | 6.8x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. | 1,049 | 10.8x | 10.9x |
| Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 991 | 10.0x | — |
| Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. | 944 | 11.9x | 14.4x |
| New Mountain Finance Corporation | 815 | 7.9x | 7.8x |
| Industry Median | 11.2x | 11.2x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 30 | 84 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 337 | 941 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 368 | 368 | |
| Equity Value | -31 | 573 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 42 | 42 | |
| Fair Price | $-1 | $14 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Horizon Technology Finance Corp (HTFC) has a fair value of $10.14 based on 9 comparable companies in the Asset Management industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Technology Finance CorpHTFC | 1,059 | 34.9x | 12.5x |
| Capital Southwest Corporation | 1,364 | 13.9x | 12.8x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes due 2029 | 1,124 | 10.4x | 10.4x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. 7.875% Notes Due 2029 | 1,115 | 10.4x | 10.4x |
| MidCap Financial Investment Corporation | 1,078 | 10.8x | 9.7x |
| Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. | 1,056 | 11.9x | 6.6x |
| Trinity Capital Inc. | 1,049 | 10.1x | 10.1x |
| Abrdn Healthcare Investors | 991 | 9.9x | — |
| Kayne Anderson BDC, Inc. | 944 | 8.7x | 10.5x |
| New Mountain Finance Corporation | 815 | 6.5x | 6.4x |
| Industry Median | 10.4x | 10.3x | |
| (*) Revenue | 41 | 114 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 424 | 1,170 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 368 | 368 | |
| Equity Value | 57 | 803 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 42 | 42 | |
| Fair Price | $1 | $19 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 4.7% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $8.40 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $1.05.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | -6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | +4.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $1.05 |
| Fair Value | $8.40 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $27.8M | $1.39 | — |
| FY2022 | $21.2M | $0.86 | -38.1% |
| FY2023 | $-17.2M | $-0.56 | -165.1% |
| FY2024 | $-5.6M | $-0.16 | — |
| FY2025 | $45.5M | $1.05 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -6.8%
Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.8% and projected dividend growth of 0.8%, the fair value is $26.64 per share. The DDM range is $17.67 – $54.40 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.25 | 116.8% | — |
| 2024 | — | — | -100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.31 | — | +8.4% |
| 2022 | $1.21 | 141.1% | -1.5% |
| 2021 | $1.23 | 88.4% | — |
| Year | Projected DPS | Growth | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.26 | 0.8% | 0.9276 | $1.17 |
| 2027 | $1.27 | 0.8% | 0.8605 | $1.10 |
| 2028 | $1.28 | 0.8% | 0.7982 | $1.02 |
| 2029 | $1.29 | 0.8% | 0.7404 | $0.96 |
| 2030 | $1.30 | 0.8% | 0.6868 | $0.89 |
| Terminal Value | $1.35 DPS | 3.5% | $21.50 |
Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.
| Ke \ Growth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $48 | $48 | $50 | $52 | $54 |
| 6.8% | $33 | $33 | $35 | $36 | $38 |
| 7.8% | $26 | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 |
| 8.8% | $21 | $21 | $22 | $23 | $24 |
| 9.8% | $18 | $18 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.